Search found 10562 matches

by Cunobelin
10 Jan 2021, 10:48am
Forum: On the road
Topic: Dangerous front lights
Replies: 82
Views: 7967

Re: Dangerous front lights

rmurphy195 wrote:
Cyril Haearn wrote:If one has two lights they could be diagonally aligned, that should confuse anyone seeing them. One hopes


Why on earth would you want to cause confusion and endanger people?


There is a lot of evidence that often once they have identified a cyclist drivers "deprioritise" increasing the risk

"Confuse" was not perhaps the best word, but being out of the normal expectations makes the driver think about your presence and plan an appropriate reaction

Does not endanger anyone
by Cunobelin
10 Jan 2021, 10:37am
Forum: Non-standard, Human Powered Vehicles
Topic: Reminder why I have a trike
Replies: 17
Views: 2756

Re: Reminder why I have a trike

Made a classic error on mine....

Fitted a snow tyre to the rear wheel to add traction and it worked well

Then on the downhill from work applied brakes and realised that the additional grip should have been beneficial as I skidded along

Now have snow tyres all round
by Cunobelin
10 Jan 2021, 10:26am
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!

The Pfizer vaccine is now being administered outside the evidence

My second shot on Thursday has been cancelled and delayed by up to 12 weeks. I am also not guaranteed that it will be the Pfizer vaccine.

Both of these would compromise the efficiency and compromise the immunity

No problem with the vaccine, but unless the evidence changes, I am guaranteed that the Pfizer vaccine will be administered and within the evidenced guidelines the answer is no to the second vaccine injection.
by Cunobelin
17 Nov 2020, 8:00am
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV?

mikeymo wrote:
Cunobelin wrote:Also there was an issue where one of the vaccines has the side effects of a sore arm and 24 hour headache. It is though that because of this the placebo group were aware of the fact they were in the placebo group and modified their actions accordingly


Have you got a reference for that please?


Yes... https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid ... e-everyone

Which vaccine?


See reference

Who is it "thought" by?


See Reference

Are you suggesting the whole placebo group altered their actions? Would the word "some" have been appropriate?

Ask the coordinators - they are the ones that would know - it is simply a confounding factor

In what way did they alter their actions?


Ask the coordinators - they are the ones that would know - it is simply a confounding factor

Ask the coordinators - they are the ones that would know - it is simply a confounding factor


Did the members of the innoculated group also alter their behaviour?


Ask the coordinators - they are the ones that would know - it is simply a confounding factor

][/quote]
by Cunobelin
17 Nov 2020, 6:18am
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV?

... and just to reassure us the Government is already falsifying figures. Hancock is boating about 5 million doses of the Moderna vaccine.. Forgets the reality that it is effectively half of that as the vaccine requires 2 doses.

THey need to be honest, something that this Government has an issue with
by Cunobelin
17 Nov 2020, 6:10am
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV?

mikeymo wrote:
Jdsk wrote:
mikeymo wrote:Mmmm. I think what they do is this:

1. Take a large group of people.

2. Divide them into two groups, randomly, so the first group is the same as the second group, in terms of age, gender etc.

3. Give one group the vaccine, give the other group not the vaccine (I think meningitis vaccine in some trials).

4. Wait and see what happens.

If 100 people out of the total (both groups added together) then go on to develop Coronavirus, and 90 of them are in the group that DIDN'T get the vaccine, that is what gives them the 90% immunity figure. Edit: actually 88.888recurring, maybe.

Something like that.

Very good. I think of the numbers slightly differently:

For this purpose assume that the two groups are the same size, so we that can work with headcount rather than frequency.

If 100 get the disease in the untreated group then you'd expect the same in the treated group, and any change from that will be caused by the treatment.

If only 10 in the treated group actually get the disease then 90 didn't.... 90% efficacy of protection.

(In practice the groups might not be equal sizes, at this stage you probably want to do dose finding at the same time, you want as much information as possible on subgroups, and you'll have early stopping criteria. And RSN we'll need ways of comparing different regimes and different vaccines.)

Jonathan


Yes, that's what I did. But didn't go through all the steps.

100 got covid. 90 in placebo, 10 in inoculated.

If the drug had no effect then 90 would be expected to get Covid in both groups, the "null hypothesis", yes?

But only 10 got it. So 80 didn't, who would have been expected to, if the null hypothesis was correct. So (80/90)*100 = 88.888888%

The actual Pfizer/BioNtech figures were 94, of which "fewer than 9"(?) were in the innoculated group. That works out at whatever I said earlier, 89.4% They are going to carry on recruiting until they have 164 cases I think. And also do long term follow up, which will of course be very useful.

Unless I'm completely wrong about the way epidemiologists interpret study data, of course.


Also there was an issue where one of the vaccines has the side effects of a sore arm and 24 hour headache. It is though that because of this the placebo group were aware of the fact they were in the placebo group and modified their actions accordingly
by Cunobelin
16 Nov 2020, 8:02pm
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV?

Paulatic wrote:
Jdsk wrote:
Cunobelin wrote:The facts are that a large majority of NHS Staff already carry antibodies from previous infection.

Have you got a source for that, please?

Thanks

Jonathan

Compared to the whole population I think.
https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/ne ... es-results


There are different assessments but the NHS Wide trial shows that many do.. majority was probably the wrong word, as that is teh anecdotal evidence from colleagues.

Others report between 10 - 18% of staff depending on the Cohort

The point that I was making is why are we removing staff with COVID antibodies naturally produced treated differently from similar antibodies from a vaccine.
by Cunobelin
16 Nov 2020, 7:48pm
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV?

pwa wrote:I'm basing my "demands" on common sense. I agree that vaccines will be one tool among several, alongside hygiene etc.


Excellent

But "at best the vaccine is 90% effective"! Where did you get that figure from? Early results are 93% for the first vaccine and 95% for the vaccine announced today, which compares to an average of about 50% for flu vaccines apparently. So very good.

Pfizer's figures for their own vaccine. It was the efficacy at 28 days after the second booster dose. They make no claims at all about the efficacy is a week, a month, 6 months or a year later or when a booster is required.

Pfizer also state that the results may vary outside the laboratory.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-relea ... te-against


And I don't deny anyone their religious or human rights. I suggested staff unable to take the vaccine be assigned to other duties, not sacked.


You are unequivocally denying their rights by restricting their practice. You also don't factor in the number that will not react to te vaccine


Though who these individuals are and how they got into medicine I don't know, as there are animal products in all sorts of stuff they routinely inject into patients. I simply want patients to be given the level of protection from infection that it is practical to give them. Are you picturing wards run by Jehovah's Witnesses?


Nope by normal people who have normal rights... insulting people does not change that. Of course we could ask why staff should be put at risk by unvaccinated patients, and why testing should not be made compulsory before those patients infect otehrs.

And as you think having had the virus once means you can never catch it and pass it on again, you need to do some more research because that is wrong.


I don't. That is made obvious by the trial in which I am participating. We still wear full PPE, and take all the some precautions as any other HCP

That is the point I have been making, there is at this time no proven immunity, I and other colleagues have antibodies at 8 months, a colleague lost theirs at three months. Antibody life is uncertain, and due to that we don't know whether the vaccine is effective for a week, a month, 6 months or a year. There is no proof as yet that any of the vaccines prevent infection on a short or long term basis.

It s a brave new world, and one where the uncertainty of the vaccines means that it is dangerous to hype them at such an early stage.
by Cunobelin
16 Nov 2020, 5:43pm
Forum: Women's cycling interests
Topic: Petite lady looking for comfy road bike
Replies: 9
Views: 7068

Re: Petite lady looking for comfy road bike

Islabikes used to be a common solution
by Cunobelin
16 Nov 2020, 5:40pm
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV?

pwa wrote:
Cunobelin wrote:You really believe the Government?

Hancock stated that all NHS staff would be tested twice weekly for COVID from last Monday.....only forgotto put the infrastructure in place, tell the NHS, or provide sufficient vaccine.

Would you refuse treatment bu a non-vaccinated vehgan with a negative test?


Of course then there is the issue of efficacy. There are doubts about the efficacy of the vaccine outside controlled experiments. Rarely do they meet the trial efficacy

Will you refuse to be treated by someone who has had the vaccination, but is one fo the more than 10% of NHS staff who will did react?

You are turning your nose up at the only route we have out of economic and social ruin. You are looking for any little loopholes you can find to allow people to duck out of helping society back to a better place. You may not see it that way but that is how it looks to me.

Yes I would refuse treatment by a non-vaccinated vegan once an effective vaccine is available. A negative test is only a test of a person's status at the moment of the test. They can do other behind-the-scenes duties while the pandemic is ongoing. Or, like me, they can accept animal products where no reasonable alternative exists and human well being depends on it. That's what health workers are trained for, human wellbeing.


Nope just pointing out that your demands are unrealistic and can never be achieved. Even with your removal of individual's basic religious and human rights.

At best the vaccine is 90% effective, and you are demanding that the other 10% of NHS staff are removed from their duties for an indefinite period!!!

It will take at least 3 months before the second dose can be given (if the logistics are sorted) and until then, the entire NHS is removed from their duties?

The facts are that a large majority of NHS Staff already carry antibodies from previous infection. They may already be immune, but no-one knows.

As with the vaccine, there have been no "real life trials" and these tend to be lower efficacy when that happens. The facts are that we do not know the efficiency in the real world, we do not know how long the resistance from these vaccines lasts

The biggest danger is anyone foolhardy to believe that they give enough protection to remove the needs for social distancing, masks and proper hygiene. We simply don't know enough to make these claims.


You are basing your demands on propaganda and dreams. The reality is that the vaccine(s) will simply be another tool in teh aresnal and not the magic bullet politicians claim
by Cunobelin
15 Nov 2020, 8:56am
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV?

pwa wrote:
Cunobelin wrote:
pwa wrote:They can have their beliefs but I wouldn't want them anywhere near my vulnerable family member. They can do some non-frontline job until the situation is improved.


So you are now removing large numbers of health care staff from the front line!

There are thousands of HCPs who have had COVID, and already have antibodies. Are you suggesting that only these staff should work in the frontline, and all those without antibodies removed?


What about the curent policy where vaccinations are prioritised. What do you suggest about staff who are not eligible?

Having had Covid 19 does not guarantee that you won't have it again. Front line staff in hospitals and care homes will be eligible for the vaccine from day 1. And if there are large numbers of health care staff who will not get vaccinated, I would be dismayed and disappointed. And I repeat, if a vulnerable member of my family finishes up in a hospital I would not want an unvaccinated member of staff anywhere near them. And I would question what that person is doing in that profession.


You really believe the Government?

Hancock stated that all NHS staff would be tested twice weekly for COVID from last Monday.....only forgotto put the infrastructure in place, tell the NHS, or provide sufficient vaccine.

Would you refuse treatment bu a non-vaccinated vehgan with a negative test?


Of course then there is the issue of efficacy. There are doubts about the efficacy of the vaccine outside controlled experiments. Rarely do they meet the trial efficacy

Will you refuse to be treated by someone who has had the vaccination, but is one fo the more than 10% of NHS staff who will did react?
by Cunobelin
14 Nov 2020, 9:49pm
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV?

pwa wrote:
Cunobelin wrote:
pwa wrote:Yes they should. I would. But I would be absolutely gobsmacked if a health care professional were not sufficiently professional to get vaccinated as part of their duty of care.



You would deny them their religious and personal beliefs?

Where do you stop?

They can have their beliefs but I wouldn't want them anywhere near my vulnerable family member. They can do some non-frontline job until the situation is improved.


So you are now removing large numbers of health care staff from the front line!

There are thousands of HCPs who have had COVID, and already have antibodies. Are you suggesting that only these staff should work in the frontline, and all those without antibodies removed?


What about the curent policy where vaccinations are prioritised. What do you suggest about staff who are not eligible?
by Cunobelin
14 Nov 2020, 11:09am
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV?

pwa wrote:
Cunobelin wrote:
pwa wrote:Turning this around, if my elderly mother had another fall and ended up in hospital again, I would not want her attended to by staff who had not been vaccinated. Nor would I want to be treated by an unvaccinated dentist. And i doubt that dentists would relish the thought of unvaccinated patients. You should be thinking of the person on the other side of the transaction, not just yourself.




I may not want to see patients without a valid negative covid test, or proof they do not have other infectious diseases

Should they not be thinking of health care professionals?

Yes they should. I would. But I would be absolutely gobsmacked if a health care professional were not sufficiently professional to get vaccinated as part of their duty of care.



You would deny them their religious and personal beliefs?

Where do you stop?
by Cunobelin
12 Nov 2020, 6:15pm
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV?

Jdsk wrote:
Carlton green wrote:As for passing regulatory hurdles, well that also brings us back full circle too. You already know that there are issues with drug certification processes and so do many Doctors, the process is flawed and as a result drug companies make money and patients suffer.

Oh... ISSUES! These vaccines are going through regulatory processes. Those processes won't be perfect. The results should be and will be challenged. I hope that they'll all be be public.

Are you saying that there will be deliberate deception of the public and harm to the public for financial gain? It sounds like it.

Jonathan



Unfortunately, this is part of the issue.

Having seen the lies, corrupt practices, forging of figures that are the forte of the current Government that confidence is undermined, and there will always be the suspicion of "foul play"

We already have the appointment of the wife of a Tory MP (who gave insider tips on which companies were involved to her mates) as the lead for the vaccionations.
by Cunobelin
12 Nov 2020, 4:43pm
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Would you take a vaccine against CV? Vote now please!
Replies: 1354
Views: 55936

Re: Would you take a vaccine against CV?

pwa wrote:
Cunobelin wrote:
Cyril Haearn wrote:May/can NHS staff keep secret from their colleagues whether they have been vaccinated?

How long does developing and testing a vaccine normally take?


"Keeping secret" is a strong term

Why should my colleagues know what I do and do not have performed?

Do they also need to know about my blood pressure, my mental health issues, my eye tests?

What other information do they need to know about my health?

This information can be shared by managers, for example, a list of who has and who hasn't so they can encourage vaccination, but you have the right to confidentiality on an individual basis.

It is no more "keep secret" than your bank account, bank balance, your address, or any other personal information... it is simply confidential,

Turning this around, if my elderly mother had another fall and ended up in hospital again, I would not want her attended to by staff who had not been vaccinated. Nor would I want to be treated by an unvaccinated dentist. And i doubt that dentists would relish the thought of unvaccinated patients. You should be thinking of the person on the other side of the transaction, not just yourself.




I may not want to see patients without a valid negative covid test, or proof they do not have other infectious diseases

Should they not be thinking of health care professionals?