War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

[Jdsk]

...
Russia, whose culture, geography and history is in large part European is being pushed further into China’s open arms with this war, further from fair governance and democratic freedoms.
...

It's always interesting to see the unattributed passive voice used in this way.

Who is doing the pushing and when and how?

Thanks

Jonathan

[Biospace]

...
The only safe way to see Putin gone is for his own people to overthrow him, not by US-led forces to impose their will.
...

Same question as before. Are you saying that the current invasion of Ukraine is being opposed by "US-led forces" or that you think that this is something that will happen in the future?

To date, there has been the sense to refrain from going further than we have already despite calls for greater intervention. I wouldn't describe the present situation as characterised by US-led forces, although there are Western boots on the ground in Ukraine. I'm concerned some Americans could see a larger-scale European war as the best solution to the problem of Putin.

It's very easy to criticise what is a hugely complex situation which appeared to catch the West relatively unprepared despite Putin's repeated warnings - I think many of us preferred to believe it near impossible that what happened would do - but fear both Russia and the Ukrainians supported with Western arms have placed themselves in a position in which a ceasefire and subsequent agreement will take longer to achieve than it could have, a year or two ago.

It should go without saying that a return to pre-2014 borders is what would be the only fair outcome, however the longer any war rages the less predictable results are. A neutral Ukraine to my thinking makes a lot of sense - note the success of a neutral Austria and Finland through the Cold War - but animosities and distrust will now be so high that this will be a far less likely outcome.

It did very much appear Boris Johnson was the one to 'galvanize' the West against Putin back in April 2022 with his visit to Kyiv, ignoring Churchill's comment that "Jaw to jaw is better than war".

[Jdsk]

...
The only safe way to see Putin gone is for his own people to overthrow him, not by US-led forces to impose their will.
...

Same question as before. Are you saying that the current invasion of Ukraine is being opposed by "US-led forces" or that you think that this is something that will happen in the future?

To date, there has been the sense to refrain from going further than we have already despite calls for greater intervention. I wouldn't describe the present situation as characterised by US-led forces, although there are Western boots on the ground in Ukraine. I'm concerned some Americans could see a larger-scale European war as the best solution to the problem of Putin.
...

Thanks

I'd describe it as "Ukraine-led" forces.

Jonathan

[Biospace]

...
Russia, whose culture, geography and history is in large part European is being pushed further into China’s open arms with this war, further from fair governance and democratic freedoms.
...

It's always interesting to see the unattributed passive voice used in this way.

Who is doing the pushing and when and how?

Financial restrictions on Russia have created deals to be made through China and other nations, rather than with Europe. However despite all the tough talk and supply of arms, Europe is still purchasing large quantities of Russian gas.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023 ... tudy-finds

[Jdsk]

...
Russia, whose culture, geography and history is in large part European is being pushed further into China’s open arms with this war, further from fair governance and democratic freedoms.
...

It's always interesting to see the unattributed passive voice used in this way.

Who is doing the pushing and when and how?

Financial restrictions on Russia have created deals to be made through China and other nations, rather than with Europe. However despite all the tough talk and supply of arms, Europe is still purchasing large quantities of Russian gas.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023 ... tudy-finds

Thanks

Is that the financial restrictions that were imposed after Russia invaded Ukraine?

Jonathan

[Biospace]

Yes, post-2014. Do you believe they are somehow harming Russia considerably more than they are hurting the West?

[Jdsk]

It's always interesting to see the unattributed passive voice used in this way.

Who is doing the pushing and when and how?

Financial restrictions on Russia have created deals to be made through China and other nations, rather than with Europe. However despite all the tough talk and supply of arms, Europe is still purchasing large quantities of Russian gas.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023 ... tudy-finds

Is that the financial restrictions that were imposed after Russia invaded Ukraine?

Yes, post-2014.

Thanks

Jonathan

[djnotts]

For once Orban is right I think.

"Donald Trump will not fund Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion if he is elected US president again, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban has said.

"He will not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war. That is why the war will end," the conservative premier said after meeting Mr Trump in Florida.

The former US president has pledged to end the war "within 24 hours" if elected - but provided no details.

Mr Orban is openly backing his long-term ally in the 2024 White House race.

Is Europe doing enough to help Ukraine?
"It is obvious that Ukraine cannot stand on its own feet," Mr Orban told Hungary's M1 TV channel late on Sunday.

"If the Americans don't give money and weapons, along with the Europeans, then the war is over. And if the Americans don't give money, the Europeans alone are unable to finance this war. And then the war is over."

He added that Mr Trump had "pretty detailed plans" on how to end the Russia-Ukraine war - but did not elaborate. The BBC has asked the Trump campaign for comment.

As president Mr Trump would have to sign off spending bills that come from Congress. He has in the past expressed scepticism that the US should go on funding Ukraine's defence."

Russia could win; it can't lose. Ukraine could lose; it can't win.

[Nearholmer]

I wonder what Trump is getting in return?

[djnotts]

^ FSO (Federal Protective Service) minders? Trumpovski Towers Hotel? 1% of Russian gas revenues? So many possibilities.....

[wheelyhappy99]

You cite atrocities carried out under Stalin, whereas the modern Russian constitution offers a very different form of governance and accountabilities. That the Russian people have managed to land themselves with Putin is more than unfortunate, but they are not the only example of a European nation which has 'elected' a tyrant as leader.

Labelling an entire nation as you do because of its current leader and having emerged from decades of suffering under a totalitarian regime has parallels with those who label individuals as unworthy or useless and is hardly conducive to global stability and prosperity. Compare the different outcomes after WW1 and WW2, as we learned what can happen if a previously strong, proud nation is punished and humiliated.

The only safe way to see Putin gone is for his own people to overthrow him, not by US-led forces to impose their will. I have the impression the military in Washington DC have a very limited understanding of Russia, or how it differs from the USSR. Their track record since the early 1990s is one we should all be aware of.

I have drawn attention to the nature of governance in Russia, which has had some similar characteristics under a succession of regimes. Please state where I have 'labelled and entire nation'.

I couldn't agree more. We should all be aware of Russia's track record since 1990. This includes assassinating journalists and political opponents. You may recall radioactive material and nerve agents being used to do so in the UK.

In addition, Russia has intervened militarily, aka invaded:

1990 Moldova, creating the puppet state of Transnistria, a long narrow strip largely separating Ukraine from Moldova and Romania. 4000km², currently home to 1,200 Russian troops and 20,000T of munitions.
1991. Georgia, creating the puppet state of Abkhazia.
1994-6. First Chechen War. Russia lost. Estimated 30,000-130,000 dead.
1999-2000. Second Chechen War. Estimated 50-80,000 dead. Look at the photos of Grozny.
2008. Georgia, again. Puppet state created in South Ossetia.
February 2014. Ukrainian President Yanukovich fails to sign a trade deal negotiated with the EU. After mass protests by civilians (Euromaidan) with over 100 killed, he flees to Russia. At the same time Russian 'veterans' take over Donetsk and Luhansk.
20 February 2014. Russia invaded and annexes Ukrainian Crimean peninsula.
July 2014. Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 is shot down over Donetsk by Russian BUK missile. The launcher was tracked from Russia to the launch site and back again by Bellingcat. All 289 people on board were killed.
2015. Russian military police, strategic bombers and attack helicopters deployed in Syria, supporting Assad's army. Look at the photos of Aleppo.
February 2022. Russia, but no one else, recognises Donetsk and Luhansk as states. Two days later Russia invaded the rest of Ukraine.
March 2022. Bucha, Ukraine. Mass murder, torture and rape of civilians.
March 2022. Among the thousands of dead in Mariupol are hundreds killed when the theatre, used as a civilian shelter with 'children' painted on the roof, was bombed.

Which of these have involved 'US led forces' or 'the military in Washington DC' please?

[Psamathe]

I do wonder what will happen if Ukraine "wins" (wins in quotes as I'm not sure what form a "win" would take).

Would Putin be deposed or assassinated? and if so, would his replacement be even more extreme?
Would the "win" be a brief period whilst Putin/Russia re-arms, re-trains and invades again?

Basically, with Putin and/or without radical governance change in Russia can Ukraine ever be safe from a re-armed Russia?

Ian

[Jdsk]

I do wonder what will happen if Ukraine "wins" (wins in quotes as I'm not sure what form a "win" would take).

Would Putin be deposed or assassinated? and if so, would his replacement be even more extreme?
Would the "win" be a brief period whilst Putin/Russia re-arms, re-trains and invades again?

Basically, with Putin and/or without radical governance change in Russia can Ukraine ever be safe from a re-armed Russia?

Whatever the new borders the chance of repeated direct military invasion will be a lot lower with NATO support and stronger prepositioning. Of course other forms of attack are also available.

Jonathan

[djnotts]

I do wonder what will happen if Ukraine "wins" (wins in quotes as I'm not sure what form a "win" would take).

Would Putin be deposed or assassinated? and if so, would his replacement be even more extreme?
Would the "win" be a brief period whilst Putin/Russia re-arms, re-trains and invades again?

Basically, with Putin and/or without radical governance change in Russia can Ukraine ever be safe from a re-armed Russia?

Ian

Just "questions" is realistic and understandable! Any "answers" entirely speculative.

Any "win" would surely be pyrrhic, waving a flag while stood atop a smouldering pile of rubble. And even that I think very unlikely.

If Russia were to withdraw, then yes Putin might fall, however he presents events through his controlled media. A successor(s) would probably have to "avenge Mother Russia's humiliation, caused by Putin's errors...." some time in the future. I do not see how a state as inherently powerful and large and nuke-capable can be contained.

A cynical deal could cede Ukraine in return for "no more", but then who could take any leader likely to succeed Putin at their word? A fudge would be to do so, simply to kick the can down the road.

If the US and then the rest of the west desert Ukraine then would the latter fight on to certain destruction? Actually I suspect they would.

Even speculation fails me!

Clearer by the day that this will all end badly.......

[UpWrong]

Putin is a cold war dinosaur who has long been seeking a restored imperial Russia with an eastern bloc under its control. This view of the world is now 2 or 3 generations out of date. What Roosevelt, Stalin and Churchill did at Yalta was wrong then and even more wrong now. Putin wants another Yalta. We in Europe shouldn't agree and should oppose him forever. That means continuing to support Ukraine no matter what, even if Putin takes Kiev we should actively support a resistance.