Search found 26 matches

by mjal
20 Dec 2020, 9:52pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown 2020 : 3rd Lockdown 2021
Replies: 765
Views: 18261

Re: WInter 2020 : Covid-19 : 2nd Lockdown

[i] [/i][quote="Ben@Forest"]Interesting perspective from an opinion writer in the Telegraph ( the 1968 reference is apparently when we had 80,000 deaths from influenza): Were there actually 80,000 deaths from influenza in 1968? I am not convinced even though that statistic has become embe...
by mjal
26 Nov 2020, 8:46pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)
Replies: 655
Views: 17488

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

... does he mention false negatives at any point? If there was a significant number of these then the FPR could be higher... I don't understand that bit. What are you keeping constant and what are you varying... specificity, sensitivity, prevalence? Jonathan I was reminding myself of various techni...
by mjal
25 Nov 2020, 10:00pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)
Replies: 655
Views: 17488

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

I did muse about FPR in my long post and made the point that some virologists maintain that there are no "false positives" in the conventional sense and that any generated are due to contamination, clerical error etc. I then went on to say that I had seen a rate of 0.5% offered. I made no...
by mjal
24 Nov 2020, 3:56pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)
Replies: 655
Views: 17488

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Your quotation implies that the words related are mine ; they are NOT and neither are the figures. They are part of a quote from a comment below the article in Nature ; the said quote was clearly delineated by me. I'm sorry if I misquoted you. But I've just looked again and the section above that i...
by mjal
24 Nov 2020, 3:01pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)
Replies: 655
Views: 17488

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

How is this possible? Even if all those contacts were indeed uninfected, where are the false positive tests? Even assuming just a 1% false positive rate, the chance of getting zero positives out of 1,174 is less than 1 in 100,000. Could you be persuaded to recalculate that with a better estimate of...
by mjal
23 Nov 2020, 12:32am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)
Replies: 655
Views: 17488

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

Quick reply (at 0030) :

"there's an even more improbable claim: zero positive results out of 85,884 tests conducted in East Lake Scenic Area of Wuhan."

This is a "quote from the quote" attached to the Nature paper.

Any thoughts?
by mjal
22 Nov 2020, 11:24pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)
Replies: 655
Views: 17488

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

A bit more Googling, but I haven't read it in full (and never could!): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. Whenever I see a result of 0% (or 100%) with reference to a biological system I am immediately s...
by mjal
20 Nov 2020, 9:47pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)
Replies: 655
Views: 17488

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

"SARS-CoV had two highly specific genetic fingerprints. First, unlike the other coronaviruses, the SARS-CoV strain of 2003 did not contain the HE protein. The HE gene is also absent from SARS-CoV2. Further, a short lysine-rich region (KTFPPTEPKKDKKKK) in the N-protein was reported to be unique...
by mjal
5 Nov 2020, 6:18pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)
Replies: 655
Views: 17488

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

... and the government have also (though not openly) admitted to no isolated new virus as per a FOI request? That's a secret response to an FoI request? I've never seen of those before. You've clearly got a copy. Please could you post it in full. Thanks Jonathan for you Jonathan Why don't you look ...
by mjal
23 Oct 2020, 9:28pm
Forum: Does anyone know … ?
Topic: Covid Infection boundaries
Replies: 234
Views: 6935

Re: Covid tier 3

. . <UC> . . . . . assuming that I have read his post correctly ; he has not, so far, posted anything to contradict my interpretation.
by mjal
22 Oct 2020, 10:11pm
Forum: Does anyone know … ?
Topic: Covid Infection boundaries
Replies: 234
Views: 6935

Re: Covid tier 3

TUC strikes again. "That's before we even get to the absolute fact that there is no isolated virus, there is no SARS-COV-2, the image is from the CDC documents in July. No-one has isolated it" Am I interpreting correctly in that you seem to be saying that the virus causing Covid-19 has not...
by mjal
7 Jul 2020, 12:22am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)
Replies: 655
Views: 17488

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

I told myself not to waste any more time and energy in engaging with TUC...but here are some quotes from the good Prof Stadler's article (Google translated from German) to which TUC directs us : "SARS-Cov-2 is not that new at all, but a seasonal cold virus that is mutated and, like all other co...
by mjal
2 Jul 2020, 10:38am
Forum: On the road
Topic: Social Distancing
Replies: 17
Views: 807

Re: Social Distancing

I have had the problem with social distancing that idiots keep posting that you must absolutely never get within 2m of another human even momentarily when it's unavoidable and your face is covered, completely ignoring the minutes of exposure that are usually needed to catch the virus. Is the clue h...
by mjal
15 May 2020, 11:12pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)
Replies: 655
Views: 17488

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

This study estimates 29% of Britons may already have had Covid inwhich case we are well on the way tlo herd immunity. Too technical for me to have any opinion on it's accuracy but anyeway .... https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ijcp.13528?af=R&utm_campaign=LNCH++20200514+++SM+CID_5...
by mjal
14 May 2020, 10:23pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)
Replies: 655
Views: 17488

Re: Covid 19 outbreak - arguing about Stats (again)

I think it is a good point that some deaths are being counted incorrectly, but we don't need to go on and on about it. Lots of things can be put on the death certificate on balance or clim=inical probabilities, without testing. Chances are that many COVID-19 deaths are incorrectly put as something ...