Search found 213 matches

by PaulaT
22 Jul 2021, 10:48am
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Europe 2021
Replies: 935
Views: 41638

Re: Europe July.????

willem jongman wrote: 21 Jul 2021, 7:30pm In the Netherlands the peak that happened because our government wrongly lifted almost all restrictions is subsiding now that some new restrictions are in place: yesterday and today about 7000 a day, on a population of 17.5 million. That is just over half the UK level, bt still much too high in our view.
But you need to take into account the different levels of per capita testing. I believe we're currently doing much more testing per capita than most EU countries. Even the mighty Germany is only doing about a third of our per capita testing. The latest data I can find on Our World In Data is for the 7 day average up to 10th July where the UK averaged 16.63 test per 1000 people per day and the Netherlands averaged 1.55 tests per 1000 people per day. So if I've got my sums right you're doing something like 25,000-30,000 tests per day which is quite honestly pathetic. And that makes your test positivity rate well over 20% which is alarming and shows very high levels of community transmission. As a comparison our test positivity rate is currently about 5%. The data strongly suggests that the Covid situation in your country is a lot worse than you realise and quite possibly worse than the UK.
willem jongman wrote: 21 Jul 2021, 7:30pm There is no shortage of vaccines anymore and we have started to donate millions to other countries all over the world.
That's good to hear.
by PaulaT
20 Jul 2021, 10:03pm
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Europe 2021
Replies: 935
Views: 41638

Re: Europe July.????

borisface wrote: 20 Jul 2021, 9:02pm So is there a daily figure for infections within the fully vaccinated population? Additionally, we haven't been told what the age/co-morbidity status of those hospitalised.
I'm sure the government will have such figures. You could probably derive an approximation for your local area using the case heat maps and vaccine take-up by age off the Covid website. There's been a study released from Israel looking at hospitalised vaccinated Covid patients. Only about 6% of them had no co-morbidities.
borisface wrote: 20 Jul 2021, 9:02pm Underpinning the current UK approach seems to be the idea that you've had your vaccines now get back to normal. However, the situation might suggest that the vaccination program is less efficacious than it might originally have been hoped for.
I think what we've got is way better than anyone would have dared to hope for at the start of this pandemic.

On a slightly different note, I've read on the BBC website that France has reported 18,000 new cases today.
by PaulaT
19 Jul 2021, 11:02pm
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Europe 2021
Replies: 935
Views: 41638

Re: Europe July.????

willem jongman wrote: 19 Jul 2021, 6:19pm Most recent numbers from the Netherlands 67% delta and 0% beta.
Beta never really got a foothold in the UK either probably due to a combination of surge testing and being out-competed by Alpha. The worry going forward is that even though it's less transmissible than Alpha or Delta, vaccines may not work as well against it and that might give it an advantage in populations with a high rate of vaccination.
by PaulaT
18 Jul 2021, 2:47pm
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Europe 2021
Replies: 935
Views: 41638

Re: Europe July.????

MrsHJ wrote: 17 Jul 2021, 10:12pm Can’t help feeling that with our high COVID rates many countries will red list us before we get to worry about going there.
I wish every country was on each others red list. This pandemic has years to run. International travel caused it and international travel will continue to drive it bringing death and misery to many millions.
by PaulaT
4 Jul 2021, 4:12pm
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Europe 2021
Replies: 935
Views: 41638

Re: Europe July.????

roubaixtuesday wrote: 4 Jul 2021, 1:51pm
PaulaT wrote: 4 Jul 2021, 1:39pm given that the protection offered against it by a first jab is a lot lower than for Alpha the day at which any form of protection is detected is likely tobe later too.
I think that's pure conjecture and highly unlikely.

Why would the immune response be slower? Less effective, sure, but slower??
Who mentioned slower? Not me. Oh and just for the record I'm an Honours graduate in science and I've got a pretty good understanding about the workings of the immune system although I will admit that I did have to go do some revision as I haven't had to think about such things for nigh on 50 years.
roubaixtuesday wrote: 4 Jul 2021, 1:51pm If I were a betting man, I'd put significant odds against Germany getting hit worse than us. Spain looks in a potentially bad place, France somewhere inbetween.
We're not being hit badly. The vaccines are doing their work protecting the elderly and clinically vulnerable. Hospitalisations are up a bit but a lot of cases are stupid people who didn't take up the vaccine when offered (are probably now regretting it). You only need to look at the heat maps to see effective the vaccines are, Even more stark are the graphs showing the incidence rates for over 60s and under 60s. Yes it would be nice to have very low infection rates but what's happening now is nothing like the waves which preceded it.

I'll post this again just in case you missed it

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/p ... -group-tab

Spain has had a really high take-up amongst older people. That will see them OK.
by PaulaT
4 Jul 2021, 1:39pm
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Europe 2021
Replies: 935
Views: 41638

Re: Europe July.????

roubaixtuesday wrote: 4 Jul 2021, 8:00am
Whilst 3 weeks may be necessary for full benefit, from the original phase 3 trials, much was in place at ~10 days. Take a look.

Screenshot_20210704-075821_Chrome.jpg
Those trials were done against the original wild-type virus. Real world data against the Kent/Alpha variant never showed such a clear divergence possibly because of its higher transmissiblity. I haven't seen a data for Delta yet but given that the protection offered against it by a first jab is a lot lower than for Alpha the day at which any form of protection is detected is likely tobe later too.
roubaixtuesday wrote: 4 Jul 2021, 8:00am The EU is about 5-6 weeks behind on vaccination, vaccinating significantly faster than us, at a rate as fast as we ever did. Their vaccination rates are generally already better than ours was when our cases started to rise.
The EU are about 6 weeks behind us on second jabs, quite a bit further behind on first jabs. But there's a lot of variance between the various countries.
roubaixtuesday wrote: 4 Jul 2021, 8:00am I'm not making a predicting either way, but I for these reasons I think there's a good chance many EU countries will have a smaller Delta spike than we do.
There's a quite a bit of evidence that our spike is being driven in part by football idiots (in Scotland it's highly concentrated in males under 40). Fortunately that'll be over in a few weeks and cases should then start to decline. One thing is certain that in the EU, as here, the Delta wave won't cause the levels of hospitalisations as previous waves. But that will depend on the vaccine uptake amongst the elderly and vulnerable in each individual country. Some EU countries such as Ireland and Portugal have had really high take up and so should be able to weather the storm without too much pressure on their health services. France could have problems with over 20% the elderly being unvaccinated. But some EU countries have alarmingly low vaccination rates for the elderly and they could be in real trouble.
by PaulaT
4 Jul 2021, 12:13am
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Europe 2021
Replies: 935
Views: 41638

Re: Europe July.????

roubaixtuesday wrote: 3 Jul 2021, 11:24am
I think the gap in France is 3 weeks still, so there is plenty of time to impact delta with double jabs before it gets to our level.

But even one jab still has a significant impact - I think figures quoted are something like 33% against infection and a further 33% against onward transmission, though of course noone knows for sure.

So even one Jab into a proportion of younger people will reduce R significantly.

Much is uncertain.
Much is indeed uncertain (apart from death and taxes). But there are some knowns. It takes 3 weeks after the 1st jab to get meaningful immunity. The EU doesn't have three weeks even assuming that's they could vaccinate most of their young people over the next few days which they can't - the proportion of younger people they'd need to vaccinate to have an effect on the R is impossible to achieve over the next few weeks. Remember that in the UK 85% of adults have now had at least one vaccine and Delta is surging here. EU rates average out currently to around 61%. They're not going to get to 85% for quite a while and even then they'll simply be at a point which, based on the evidence from the UK, is insufficient to stop the spread of Delta.

I'm surprised (although perhaps I shouldn't be) that the gap between jabs is so short in France. Professor Anthony Harnden who sits on our Joint Committee for Vaccines an Immunisation was talking to the BBC this morning and said that all the evidence points to a minimum of 8 weeks for the gap between the first and second jab. Reducing that gap seems to impact the longevity of the immune response. So unless France are planning booster jabs over the winter I think they could be heading for trouble beyond the imminent wave caused by Delta.
by PaulaT
3 Jul 2021, 11:16am
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Europe 2021
Replies: 935
Views: 41638

Re: Europe July.????

roubaixtuesday wrote: 3 Jul 2021, 8:52am Very hard to predict that. Could easily be the opposite; more takeup in younger people will slow the very rapid spread in those ages we've seen.

Fingers crossed.
Vaccinating younger people won't have much effect as there isn't time to get a significant number of them vaccinated before Delta really takes off in the EU. It's far more important to ensure that the over 50s are fully vaccinated. That's why we switched from a 12 week to an 8 week gap between jabs here in the UK to ensure that protection is given to the most vulnerable. It's a strategy that has proven to work very well.
by PaulaT
3 Jul 2021, 7:50am
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Europe 2021
Replies: 935
Views: 41638

Re: Europe July.????

pwa wrote: 3 Jul 2021, 6:50am I believe the concern in some of the EU about the prevalence of the Delta variant in the UK is completely rational, and as we in the UK are now taking the brakes off Covid control we are a danger to parts of Europe less vaccinated than ourselves. We should be patient and wait for the rest of Europe to catch up with vaccination so that we are all on a similar footing. I am a bit concerned about France, though, as it looks as though a big chunk of the French population will remain unvaccinated and therefore susceptible to any Covid we bring to them.
I agree that things could very quickly get serious in France. Delta is already 20% of cases there and that will likely increase very rapidly just as it did here. I've just been looking at the vaccine take-up by age in the EU

https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/p ... -group-tab

There's a lot of variation with some countries seeing very high uptake amongst older people and others doing less well. I think it's going to be vaccine uptake amongst the older age groups which determine how serious the Delta wave will be.
by PaulaT
1 Jul 2021, 9:19pm
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Europe 2021
Replies: 935
Views: 41638

Re: Europe July.????

willem jongman wrote: 1 Jul 2021, 6:19pm Vaccination is making the real difference for now. Will it also protect us in Winter?
Here in the UK plans are already being made to offer older people and the clinically vulnerable a booster jab later in the year just in case. Whilst not relevant to most of the population clinical trials have shown that people who are immunocompromised and haven't generated much of an immune response after two jabs do generate a much better response after a third jab so a third jab may well also help the very elderly too.

Personally I'm very hopeful that these vaccines will provide long-lasting protection (assuming the virus doesn't evolve a significant immune escape) because of the T-memory cells which are produced in response to the vaccine. In the absence of exposure to the virus antibodies will naturally slowly decline but the T-memory cells will still be there and will be able to recognise the virus and initiate an immune response resulting in the creation of new antibodies to destroy it.
by PaulaT
1 Jul 2021, 5:54pm
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Europe 2021
Replies: 935
Views: 41638

Re: Europe July.????

Jdsk wrote: 1 Jul 2021, 4:03pm
roubaixtuesday wrote: 1 Jul 2021, 3:56pmFor ~3 months we had more restrictions than pretty much anywhere on the planet.
I just don't know.

Chile required booked slots for shopping and imposed a curfew. France required a document to be carried showing the reason for leaving home.
Some countries also required mask wearing outdoors which always seemed somewhat OTT to me.
by PaulaT
30 Jun 2021, 1:45pm
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Why we should stop obsessing about weight
Replies: 19
Views: 1801

Re: Why we should stop obsessing about weight

The problem with not obsessing about weight is that whilst a small amount of extra weight might not be noticeable it all adds up to a weight which is very noticeable indeed.
by PaulaT
30 Jun 2021, 9:48am
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Way of the Roses camping
Replies: 11
Views: 1335

Re: Way of the Roses camping

keyboardmonkey wrote: 29 Jun 2021, 8:39pm
PaulaT wrote: 29 Jun 2021, 7:43am
keyboardmonkey wrote: 28 Jun 2021, 8:21pm I don’t know the plans for the final night, but if they are not to travel home you might consider Wold Farm, Flamborough a few miles north of Bridlington.
I was looking at Wold Farm as a base for a few days bird watching at Bempton. Are they actually taking tents ATM? I can't work out from their web site if they are or they aren't.
There is a phone number on their web site. It's a lovely area, well worth a phone call to find out about permitted campers.
It's probably too late now for this year.The breeding season is coming to an end and we're heading into peak holiday time. Fingers crossed for next year.
by PaulaT
29 Jun 2021, 7:43am
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Way of the Roses camping
Replies: 11
Views: 1335

Re: Way of the Roses camping

keyboardmonkey wrote: 28 Jun 2021, 8:21pm I don’t know the plans for the final night, but if they are not to travel home you might consider Wold Farm, Flamborough a few miles north of Bridlington.
I was looking at Wold Farm as a base for a few days bird watching at Bempton. Are they actually taking tents ATM? I can't work out from their web site if they are or they aren't.
by PaulaT
28 Jun 2021, 9:28am
Forum: Touring & Expedition
Topic: Best deals for roaming?
Replies: 330
Views: 20968

Re: EE - No More Free Mobile Roaming from January

francovendee wrote: 28 Jun 2021, 7:59am
al_yrpal wrote: 27 Jun 2021, 12:08pm Assume you are talking about eyewateringly expensive iphones? The Android system is also updated every moth and often more frequent than that even on £100 phones like mine. Never been hacked and had mobiles since they were bricks. Dual simm is quite useful if you suffer poor signals in your frequent locations. Bit of shortcoming if you havent got that option. Just paid my annual Osmand+ subscription £5.50. Using it a lot in new territory just lately.

Al
I paid £10 some years ago for Osmand+ that gave me unlimited downloads. It was a one off payment and no mention of yearly renewal.
Since Covid I've not had to download new maps so I'm not sure if Osmand+ will still let me do it.
I might just try downloading a few maps and see if it works.
Yes it will. On Android anyway. I think I paid about £5 or £6 for it although I do also give them a small (£10 a year) donation to help out (I do that for a few open source applications that I use).