roubaixtuesday wrote: ↑4 Jul 2021, 8:00am
Whilst 3 weeks may be necessary for full benefit, from the original phase 3 trials, much was in place at ~10 days. Take a look.
Screenshot_20210704-075821_Chrome.jpg
Those trials were done against the original wild-type virus. Real world data against the Kent/Alpha variant never showed such a clear divergence possibly because of its higher transmissiblity. I haven't seen a data for Delta yet but given that the protection offered against it by a first jab is a lot lower than for Alpha the day at which any form of protection is detected is likely tobe later too.
roubaixtuesday wrote: ↑4 Jul 2021, 8:00am
The EU is about 5-6 weeks behind on vaccination, vaccinating significantly faster than us, at a rate as fast as we ever did. Their vaccination rates are generally already better than ours was when our cases started to rise.
The EU are about 6 weeks behind us on second jabs, quite a bit further behind on first jabs. But there's a lot of variance between the various countries.
roubaixtuesday wrote: ↑4 Jul 2021, 8:00am
I'm not making a predicting either way, but I for these reasons I think there's a good chance many EU countries will have a smaller Delta spike than we do.
There's a quite a bit of evidence that our spike is being driven in part by football idiots (in Scotland it's highly concentrated in males under 40). Fortunately that'll be over in a few weeks and cases should then start to decline. One thing is certain that in the EU, as here, the Delta wave won't cause the levels of hospitalisations as previous waves. But that will depend on the vaccine uptake amongst the elderly and vulnerable in each individual country. Some EU countries such as Ireland and Portugal have had really high take up and so should be able to weather the storm without too much pressure on their health services. France could have problems with over 20% the elderly being unvaccinated. But some EU countries have alarmingly low vaccination rates for the elderly and they could be in real trouble.