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by Steady rider
2 Apr 2021, 8:55am
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Is it time for a helmet?
Replies: 65
Views: 1569

Re: Is it time for a helmet?

https://www.rospa.com/rospaweb/docs/adv ... ition2.pdf

information from the author,
You may be interested in the attached paper I wrote with a colleague that has been published by Rospa .

We used Hospital Episode data (HES) which collects the stats of road users admitted to hospital . So they have not just been treated at A and E but their injuries required a stay in a hospital bed . That separates out the more seriously injured. We did not analyse further average stays although this could be done. The HES stats are more helpful than STATS 19 which are the more usual stats quoted by government as these stats only cover accidents reported to the police. Non-collision cycling incidents (10737 admissions in 2016/17) are probably rarely reported to the police but form the highest number by category of cyclists admitted to hospital.

The headline numbers for hospital admissions in 2016/17 were

Cyclists 16686
Car occupants 14664
Motorcyclists 10673

Which supports the classification of cyclists as 'vulnerable road users' by the DoT


Data on average length of stay, suggests cyclists have a shorter stay due to falls than when bicycle/motor vehicles collisions are involved.

Alternative information, different time periods
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 011-06.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... our-health
by Steady rider
31 Mar 2021, 8:37pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Advice on Helmets, again (was price vs quality)
Replies: 53
Views: 1097

Re: Advice on Helmets prices vs quality ????

Because it could be significant even if the p value is not, 'emphasis could be'. i may need to some research to see if this looks viable.
by Steady rider
31 Mar 2021, 8:21pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Advice on Helmets, again (was price vs quality)
Replies: 53
Views: 1097

Re: Advice on Helmets prices vs quality ????

https://www.simplypsychology.org/p-value.html

The p value of 0.41 is based on statistical assumptions and with helmets other factors may come into consideration.
by Steady rider
31 Mar 2021, 8:06pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Advice on Helmets, again (was price vs quality)
Replies: 53
Views: 1097

Re: Advice on Helmets prices vs quality ????

I think Jonathan is missing the point, this is an open forum where people express views, it is not providing a published paper and declaring interests or not. Peoples true IDs are often not provided and if this is good or bad is open to debate. I do not have to answer questions but often I will. I know the 0.4 value is not considered significant but is does not mean it has no value. Conference papers are considered well before the actual events and sometimes have been subject to peer review on large parts of the papers. Even if peer reviewed, it does not necessarily mean they of sound. Conference papers can include many details probably exceeding 3000 words and many peer review processes and publications limit the word count, prohibiting explaining in the level of detail that is sometimes needed for the helmet topic.
Effects of bicycle helmet wearing on accident and injury rates - 6600 words -

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... jury_rates

Weaknesses with a meta-analysis approach to assessing cycle helmets. Feb 2017 http://worldtransportjournal.com/wp-con ... eb-opt.pdf word count 12959

Evaluation of Australia's bicycle helmet laws, The Sports Science Summit, O2 venue London UK http://www.cycle-helmets.com/au-assessment-2015.pdf Presented 14 January 2015. - 45 pages 14k+ word count

The important point is if the work adds value and understanding.
You can also get people with vested interests, selling helmets for example and wish to discredit anyone not promoting helmets.
by Steady rider
31 Mar 2021, 2:17pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Advice on Helmets, again (was price vs quality)
Replies: 53
Views: 1097

Re: Advice on Helmets prices vs quality ????

Rospa quotes
A Cochrane Review found that five case-control studies from different countries showed the large protective
effect of helmets. The review suggested that helmets decreased the risk of injury to the head and the brain by
65%-88% and the upper and mid-face by 65%14. However, the review did acknowledge that little to no
protection is offered to the lower face and jaw15


https://www.cyclehelmets.org/1243.html
Zeegers T, Overestimation of the effectiveness of the bicycle helmet by the use of odds ratios’ http://www.fietsberaad.nl/?lang=nl&repo ... dds+ratios


May need to look up report by Zeegers
and
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... jury_rates
Complimentary evidence
Recent studies have also cast doubt on the reliability of published case control studies and meta-analyses regarding the effectiveness of bicycle helmets. Zeegers 2015 states that “Three cases could be found in the literature with sufficient data to assess both risk ratios and odds ratios: the Netherlands, Victoria (Australia) and Seattle (U.S.A). In all three cases, the problem of overestimation of the effectiveness of the helmet by using odds ratios did occur. The effect ranges from small (+ 8 %) to extremely large (> + 400 %). Contrary to the original claim of these studies, in two out of three cases the risk of getting a head injury proved not to be lower for helmeted cyclists. Moreover, in all three cases the risk of getting a non-head injury proved to be higher for cyclists with a helmet.”

The Seattle study, Thompson et al claimed, “The use of helmets can reduce the risk of head injury by 85%”. The 400% overestimation from the Seattle study shows the degree of error that can occur from using comparisons and odds ratio calculations.

https://www.cyclinguk.org/campaigning/v ... le-helmets
In any case, there are serious doubts about the effectiveness of helmets. They are, and can only be, designed to withstand minor knocks and falls, not serious traffic collisions. Some evidence suggests they may in fact increase the risk of cyclists having falls or collisions in the first place, or suffering neck injuries.
by Steady rider
31 Mar 2021, 1:58pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Advice on Helmets, again (was price vs quality)
Replies: 53
Views: 1097

Re: Advice on Helmets prices vs quality ????

Jonathan
I am more interested in seeing how the 0.41 p value was calculated, it could be helpful if you can provide the calculation.


Thanks
by Steady rider
30 Mar 2021, 8:48pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Luck counts for more than a helmet
Replies: 50
Views: 1285

Re: Luck counts for more than a helmet

In his (Jonathan was presenting in the video, assuming not the same Jonathan?) display I think he shows 12 cyclist deaths in 1992, I think 14 was the actual figure. He also fails to relate to overall road deaths, for example in 1989, 158 pedestrian deaths reduced to 90 by 1992. From memory, overall road deaths reduced from 777 in 1989 to 398 in 1992. Bearing in mind cycling reduced during this period.
by Steady rider
30 Mar 2021, 8:21pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Luck counts for more than a helmet
Replies: 50
Views: 1285

Re: Luck counts for more than a helmet

Culture & Health Webinar Series 2019 - Safety & Society: Cycle Helmet Debates

Take it up with the moderators.
by Steady rider
30 Mar 2021, 8:12pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Luck counts for more than a helmet
Replies: 50
Views: 1285

Re: Luck counts for more than a helmet

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCIr5V31y1E
may be of limited interest. slight error in Jonathan's figures for Victoria.

Vorpal wrote
My conclusion, as someone whose profession is analysing risk:
The benefits imparted by wearing a helmet in an incident are mostly offset by the increased risk of having an incident


Trying to provide a very brief analysis.
Helmet incur more impacts than a bare head,
Robinson 1996 refers to the Wasserman data that detailed the incidence of cyclists hitting their head/helmet during an 18-month period was “significantly higher for helmet wearers (8/40 vs 13/476 - i.e. 20% vs 2.7%, p 0.00001)."

i.e. 8 from 40 =20%, v 13 from 476, 2.7%, 7 higher risk of impact from these figures.

Helmet wearing can increase the accident rate, as examples, The Porter 2016 report in the US detailed that cyclists wearing helmets had more than twice the odds of suffering an injury than cyclists not wearing helmets. Erke and Elvik 2007 examined research from Australia and New Zealand and stated that "There is evidence of increased accident risk per cycling-km for cyclists wearing a helmet. In Australia and New Zealand, the increase is estimated to be around 14 per cent." Clarke and Gillham 2019 concluded
Nevertheless, this study presents evidence that helmet use tends to increase the accident/injury rate per cyclist, potentially outweighing any head protection benefits.


From the above, assuming 1000 cyclist not wearing helmets, assume 100 accidents and 10 head injuries to the part that may be protected by a helmet. Assuming 1000 cyclists wearing helmets, assume between 114 and 200 accidents and between 80 and 140 impacts to helmets, many of these impacts may be minor. How many head injuries would result and what sort of head injuries?

From the above estimates, it could be expected for helmet wearers to claim their helmet had an impact and potentially saved them from injury and they could easily assume a major benefit.

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... jury_rates
by Steady rider
29 Mar 2021, 7:18pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Advice on Helmets, again (was price vs quality)
Replies: 53
Views: 1097

Re: Advice on Helmets prices vs quality ????

https://bmjopensem.bmj.com/content/bmjo ... 6.full.pdf
Taking another look at this recent paper, 28 cases, 20 had previous concussions. Bicycling-related concussions leading to postconcussion syndrome in adults’, details ‘The mean duration of PCS for helmet wearers was 22.9 months, and 16.8 months for patients not wearing a helmet at the time of concussion (p=0.41)’

Previous studies show something like 90%+ who have head impacts make a good recovery. Helmet wearers have more impacts compared to cyclists not wearing, data suggests an impact several times higher.

There is evidence showing a higher accident rate connected with helmet use.

Is the helmet price and quality a distraction from the main focus, does the quality or price have any bearing safety, when all helmets we assume will meet standards.
by Steady rider
28 Mar 2021, 7:29pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Is it time for a helmet?
Replies: 65
Views: 1569

Re: Is it time for a helmet?

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... istics-hes
RAS55011: Road casualties by MAIS group for linked STATS19 and HES data, England (MS Excel Spreadsheet, 133KB)
provides details, if these included all non-traffic accidents I am unsure.

I have emailed the second author listed, first did not arrive, provided a link to the discussion, see if any clarification can be found.
by Steady rider
28 Mar 2021, 5:05pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Is it time for a helmet?
Replies: 65
Views: 1569

Re: Is it time for a helmet?

Robert.benington@bristol.gov.uk <Robert.benington@bristol.gov.uk>;

I will send him an email, asking if he can clarify.
by Steady rider
28 Mar 2021, 5:00pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Is it time for a helmet?
Replies: 65
Views: 1569

Re: Is it time for a helmet?

I have seen Australia data suggesting serious injuries AIS 3 is more common from vehicle accidents than from falls. Data from the Netherlands suggest serious injuries due to falls are about 3 times higher than those from motor vehicle/bicycle accidents.
The actual length of stay in hospital may be much shorter from falls.

The author can be contacted and asked about the statements.
by Steady rider
28 Mar 2021, 4:04pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Is it time for a helmet?
Replies: 65
Views: 1569

Re: Is it time for a helmet?

Thats absolute nonsense, isn't it?
Motor vehicle "accidents" are the biggest cause, surely?


I think they have it about right. There is other data - I will have a look for links.
https://www.rospa.com/rospaweb/docs/adv ... ition2.pdf

Many cyclists think road accidents involving vehicles must be the main issue, in fatality cases yes it is. For general injuries and it appears serious injuries, falling off is the main problem. This may be helpful in understanding how balance and factors affecting balance are quite important, e.g. helmets.

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _stability
This paper consider potholes and there could be other links, will look for.
by Steady rider
27 Mar 2021, 4:18pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Is it time for a helmet?
Replies: 65
Views: 1569

Re: Is it time for a helmet?

The wheel size looks to be about 13 inch, assuming the pothole is 3 inch deep, the wheel will impact the far side and pivot about the rim in most cases, lifting the front end by 3 inch, in an horizontal distance of about 8 inch? Depending on travel speed, say 12 mph or 20 km hr, high g ( relatively) forces could occur. Larger wheels lower g forces on impact. The 2 inch tyres would help a little. Wearing a helmet could add extra forces - making balance and control slightly more difficult.

I have not seen in the past 50 years, minor roads in the UK in such a poor state of repair. They are worse now than in the 1960s.