Search found 9863 matches

by horizon
19 Mar 2020, 7:25pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

https://www.boredpanda.com/coronavirus-outbreak-stages-italy-jason-yanowitz/?utm_source=singletrackworld&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=organic Worth a read if you think it is just a bit of flu. I've re-read his tweets but cannot glean much from them. However, even if it weren't the coron...
by horizon
19 Mar 2020, 11:01am
Forum: Health and fitness
Topic: Homeopathy, does it work?
Replies: 270
Views: 7898

Re: Homeopathy, does it work?

I think Homeopaths are really selfish. The power to help they have but don't use. A few drops of their diluted water in e.g. upper Thames and they could cure millions within months. End of cancer. Anti-vaxers would become a thing of the past as the diseases they don't want to be protected from are ...
by horizon
19 Mar 2020, 10:38am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Just another quick fact about Italy (which I didn't know): Fatal cases of coronavirus were unexpected in Italy, for instance, due to the “health and wealth” of northern Italy, but “Italy is one of the oldest populations in the world with 23.3% of its population over the age 65, compared to 12% in Ch...
by horizon
19 Mar 2020, 10:27am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

The death rate is unusually high for Italy. In addition, most of the increase is in a single region. https://reason.com/2020/03/17/italian-daily-death-rate-up-20-because-of-coronavirus-lombardy-up-about-80/ So, not normal, even for flu season. That's a fair point. But I do go back to the quote I po...
by horizon
19 Mar 2020, 10:11am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Post being edited.
by horizon
18 Mar 2020, 8:54pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

There were 500 deaths today in Italy. 3,500 excess a week. And rising exponentially. If you think this is normal, why do you think the hospitals in Italy are unable to cope? Please explain. The daily death rate in Italy is about 1,500. Given that as far as we know all the covid19 patients had under...
by horizon
18 Mar 2020, 6:53pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

It's the exponential growth in cases and deaths that is most worrying. If, for instance, deaths were to double every day, starting from one, the entire population of the world would be wiped out in less than 33 days! It's rather the equivalent of the 'king's chessboard problem'. Spot on! Having sai...
by horizon
18 Mar 2020, 5:45pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

If anyone's in doubt of the severity and where we could be heading, over 300 deaths just in Lombardy today. . I'm finding it increasingly difficult to challenge new information without sounding callous or uncaring. (I'm neither, I would like to think) or that I don't take it seriously. So bearing t...
by horizon
18 Mar 2020, 10:30am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

I won't - and can't- make line by line argument against Horizon's views. I will say this: at a stroke he dismissed the entire department at Imperial, which is largely recognised as the leading in the world, dismisses the CMO and CSO and somehow says that 20,000 is less than 8,000. The figure for se...
by horizon
18 Mar 2020, 12:00am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

Maybe you’ve found a good way of dealing with the anxiety I'm not anxious. Anyway, if you haven’t seen it: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0QO12BT6DxcymI3MwlZqRzrYED9vP2ya4lbyCpKBZzQ...
by horizon
17 Mar 2020, 10:49pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

I don't want to bandy too many statistics around (though people on here do ask for them). However here are two more today from Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser: Vallance said: “Every year in seasonal flu the number of deaths is thought to be 8,000. “If we can get this ...
by horizon
17 Mar 2020, 12:16pm
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

you ignore how many cases there have been. Secondly, "per year" doesn't make sense for a disease less than a year old. Yes, I'm only following deaths, not cases. The per year relates to an average year for flu and 2020 for coronavirus. Obviously I will be updating the CV figure as the wee...
by horizon
17 Mar 2020, 11:30am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

No. I didn’t mean the flu figures. I mean your statement that c-19 won’t result in more deaths than flu. That's my figure. So these are the parameters I'm following and the total in each case (UK and Italy) will be roughly in line with average flu figures: Number of deaths per year in the UK from f...
by horizon
17 Mar 2020, 11:18am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

AIUI the figure for unmitigated spread was 250,000 but whichever it is, it is wrong. The likely figure is roughly in line with a bad flu season (or even a good one), about 20,000. What is your source for this figure? https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/ PHE estimates that on a...
by horizon
17 Mar 2020, 10:56am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 51871

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

BTW, if anyone is sitting on ther hands today in self-isolation, here is something that is worth reading:

https://straightstatistics.fullfact.org ... t-virology