mjr wrote: ↑11 Apr 2023, 11:59am
ossie wrote: ↑11 Apr 2023, 9:40am
mjr wrote: ↑10 Apr 2023, 11:38pm
Where's that number come from? Even the Daily Express's made-up figure before a certain referendum was only 850,000. Or is it that any number between 0 and 1.2 million is "up to 1.2 million"?
The number has come from The Joint council for the welfare of Immigrants. Hopefully they're more clued up than the Daily Express.
https://www.jcwi.org.uk/who-are-the-uks ... population
It doesn't come from them. That page points to PEW Research as the source, but then
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019 ... ed-kingdom points to a mix of Eurostat submissions (which the UK no longer makes IIRC) and the 2001 Census as the source, along with handwaving like "in line with migration trends" without giving any source for those claimed trends, and linking to a couple of political pages, one of which has been removed.
I think it's pretty clear that it's an illegitimate statistic: that is to say, it has no parents willing to admit to creating it in a credible way. If nothing else, the link to the 2001 Census when there have been two more since should make us wary of its reliability. The further into the future that a forecast is projected, usually the wider and less reliable it becomes.
mjr wrote: ↑10 Apr 2023, 11:38pm
So does pessimism of a few mean that we shouldn't even try it?
How do you feel about trying more deterrents, given that no deterrents so far have seemed to reduce the numbers arriving? That's actual experience, not only a feeling.
Is it the pessimism of a few ? I actually supported the idea however I still maintain it wouldn't stop those still bypassing the system . The advantage of claiming asylum in the UK is that once processed and waiting for a decision you're free to melt away or stay in the system on UK soil . These folk want to come to the UK be it for family or friends, not sit in France for five years waiting for a decision on their application. Do you also not think it would easier to turn down France based applications than UK ones, knowing the difficulties and expense of expelling unsuccessful applicants from the UK?
I don't think the location of the applicant should make any difference at all, but we shouldn't be making many people wait anywhere for five years for a decision. I could quite understand if France would not allow an application centre to be set up there if the UK government doesn't present a credible plan to process applications more quickly than the current UK-based shambles. The UK doesn't allow things to be built if they don't have plans to avoid excessive queues of shoppers, let alone queues of refugees.
If there's an efficient and reasonable system, then why wouldn't the market for the smugglers and traffickers reduce massively? It would also give the Border Force and related agencies a better chance of stopping the remainder.
But we know what doesn't work: putting "Stop the Boats" slogans on a mix of failed and illegal measures which have never worked and will never work. Let's face it, if even
Theresa "hostile environment" May is against the plan because "people do not just rock up and claim modern slavery", who outside the Cabinet does think this is a good plan for anything other than conning votes off people who don't look at the plan too closely?
Oxford University have absolutely no issue in publishing Connor and Passels citations (PEW) I'm not sure why you're so keen to sweep the issue under the carpet even if it is difficult to come up with accurate figures.
https://cmise.web.ox.ac.uk/connor-p.-an ... levels-off
The migration observatory discuss PEW and also GLA findings
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/r ... opulation/
There have been other studies (all upper estimates)l
Woodbridge 2005 570k
Duvell 2008 380k
Migration watch 2005 870k
Gordon et al 2008 863k
Kovel and Kovacheva 2009 863k
Migration watch 2010 1.2 million
Lamaitre 2011 861k
PEW 2014 1.2 million
PEW 2015 1.2 million
PEW 2016 1.3 million
PEW 2017 1.2 million
GLA 2020 745k
There's also a raft of yearly figures showing thousands of people overstaying their Visas.
Reference a facility in France to process the applicants. As I said many of these unfortunates simply don't want to be in France, or Germany or Belgium and I doubt it would change much when there's a viable route straight here by rubber boat. Getting here by hook or by crook is a win win. You still win if you're declined.
Would the French want it ? I doubt it as it could potentially get swamped, creating all sorts of headaches for the French authorities.