Cycling UK Forum

Yes, there has been an average of 17,000 deaths per year from seasonal flu. It has a mortality rate of approximately 2% (it varies widely from year to year so we're talking about the averages for the last 5 years). Mortality rate is based on deaths against number of infections. So turn that around you get 850,000 infected people per year.

That's a small part of the national population who get infected and that's for many reasons. Many people have some immunity through prior flu exposure since most flues are related to other previous flues to some degree. Others have immunity through vaccination. And flu is also only infectious for 2 or 3 days during which it's easy to spot and avoid the infected person and for them to lie in bed at home. So a large part of the population simply don't get the flu that year.

For Covid19 there is no existing natural or acquired immunity in the population. A person with Covid19 also remain infectious 3 to 4 times longer. So the potential pool for infection is much larger and the chances of someone in that pool getting infected is much higher. We are potentially talking the whole population of 60 million plus. To only kill 17,000 in that pool, Covid19 would only need a mortality rate of 0.03% and we already know that even in a country with a good health system it's a lot higher than that.

So it doesn't take much to see that even with a health system working well, there could still be a lot more deaths unless infection is somehow limited (pray for sunny weather!). And it also doesn't take much to see the need to keep the infection rate low so that the health system remains effective. Hence the extreme measure everywhere.

Of course I may be wrong, and I will be very very happy to be wrong. But will you deniers be happy to be wrong.

Was finally in my local Tesco store today to see for myself. The empty food aisles seemed to be soup, pasta and bread-making flour. Maybe its that poor diet combination that explains the loo roll requirements.

The oddest part was walking from the empty pasta aisle over to the chilled foods and spotting - lots of pasta. Yes, it that horrible fresh stuff that tastes much nicer and only keeps for 6 weeks in the fridge. Yes, its more expensive, but what am I going to spend my money on, there's no more loo rolls left.

Yes, so far the US has had 47 Covid19 deaths whilst since October 2019 the CDC thinks there have been 12,000 influenza deaths. So in actual deaths to date, Covid19 is insignificant.

But the same CDC has a worst case estimate of 1.7 million Covid19 deaths in the US because its sufficiently different to previous viruses that there's no existing immunity and no known effective vaccine or other preventative.

However, that 1.7 million figure is a worst case based on uninhibited spread overwhelming health systems. So the main focus is not stopping its spread (close to impossible now), but on by trying to sufficiently reduce the rate of spread so that critical systems can cope with the load and minimize deaths through for those for who it does become more that a sniffle.

!!!What - it's kind of obvious that a respiratory virus that isn't evolved for the receptors on lung cells is a very short lived respiratory virus. So let's not hype up the scare and panic.

So far its death rate is nothing shocking (the usual old/very young/weak/those with other pre-existing conditions) and the infection rate is nothing special either. In fact, if it is infectious during the asymptomatic phase as some suggest, then its infection rate is actually quite low.

For context, bog standard seasonal flu kills in the 100-thousands worldwide each year.

Sorry Mike but why are you being so insulting and rude. I assume you posted for comment. But apparently you forgot to brief us all first on what comments are allowed and acceptable to you.

It is pretty obvious that if you commit an offence in front of police officers then you may be punished according to the local law - hardly news. And by stating that, Pete75 added more than you did. If you wanted to point out that you thought about "the disproportionate fines the Australian system levies on small cycling offences" then you singularly failed to actually say anything of that kind.

Is this some strange kind of reverse trolling where you post first without saying anything and then object to any response that doesn't match your opinion?

Interesting soapbox. Does this mean you also don't contribute to a pension due to the tax relief on that; don't have any ISAs, etc?

The government uses tax exemptions as a means of social engineering, encouraging us to have pensions, save money, give to charity. I think we can rest assured that the revenue has put a lot of work into the cost/benefit analysis of these things and knows that 'raising as much tax as possible' is not always the best option (Laffer curve? Anyone? Anyone?).

Sure its all a mess, twice a year the chancellor and others are encouraged to mess with tax and all things tax related, and of course they do - we a thousand pages of tax code away from ever getting to earn X, pay Y% tax on X simplicity.

The dodgy area is tax avoidance through schemes like paying yourself through some overseas company in which you're the 100% shareholder and such other larks.

mjr wrote:

sizbut wrote:They could easily turn you away. The wording is "clearly visible", something that is down to the opinion of the person enforcing the rule. They are the word and the spirit.

How? A torpedo light is clearly visible. It ain't invisible!

Maybe I wasn't, in your opinion, clear enough (so basically making my point for me).

The original posters was making the point that since no light standard was stated, they could turn up with any light they liked. And I was pointing out that the scrutineer could decided it wasn't good enough. Simple, no need for the sniping.

An original 1950s rear lamp would not meet many peoples' modern day expectations for a daylight visible rear lamp. That said however, the Eroica market has lead to there being a market for replicas that use brighter LEDs. https://amzn.to/2EuZ1Qs

They could easily turn you away. The wording is "clearly visible", something that is down to the opinion of the person enforcing the rule. They are the word and the spirit.

Please don't leave. Remain instead.

Hmmmm. How small would you be interested in? I have a very ridiculously small (16 1/2" if I recall correctly) Roberts tourer that was built for a 5' rider lurking in the garage.

bogmyrtle wrote:Is there a prize for getting a full house?

Not possible. Two of the requirements include "or" conditions.

You can't be both '65' and 'older than 65'. Your BMI is either 40 or its higher (or lower), not 40 and higher.

[Pedants beware: both requirement are stated as integer values, which in the absence of any explicit statement, establishes an implied framework for operational accuracy. No fraction faction need apply.]

Just over a year ago I started having serious knee problems, couldn't walk more than 2 miles without ending up in pain from some kind of over-rotation. Any twisting would trigger pain and yes, very loud clicks on the first move after being static for any time. Cycling was the only thing unaffected.

A few months back, helping out on a cycling tour in a a hilly area I noticed that things felt a bit better. Checking the bike, I found that the newly fitted seatpost had slipped about a centimeter. So I adjusted my other bikes the same.

Then a week in Yorkshire going up 20% slopes improved things further. Whilst I don't know which one is the key or whether its a combination, but a slightly lower saddle and hard hill climbing have improved my walking. I suspect that whilst my knees are still probably less than perfect (they still click), strengthening the muscle around them is holding things in place a lot better.

For that cycling is perfect as the range of physical motion is actually pretty small, especially if you get clip-in pedals. Getting a smart trainer is a big expense but for the benefit you'll find me on one 3-times a week minimum since steep slopes don't abound where I live.

The Highway Code is your friend:

Clause 133 is pretty clear - the responsibility is on the person changing lanes. She might argue she wasn't, she was turning, but to complete that she crossed your lane:

"If you need to change lane, first use your mirrors and if necessary take a quick sideways glance to make sure you will not force another road user to change course or speed. When it is safe to do so, signal to indicate your intentions to other road users and when clear, move over."


Clause 182 states responsibility even if there is no cycle lane:

"Use your mirrors and give a left-turn signal well before you turn left. Do not overtake just before you turn left and watch out for traffic coming up on your left before you make the turn, especially if driving a large vehicle. Cyclists, motorcyclists and other road users in particular may be hidden from your view."


and the last line of Clause 183 is the kicker:

"When turning
- keep as close to the left as is safe and practicable
- give way to any vehicles using a bus lane, cycle lane or tramway from either direction."

I understand the argument of "putting his money where his mouth was" - except it doesn't happen that way round.

Our barrow boy buys several thousand of stock X. Then he put your and my investment fund millions into the same stock which, in the highly automated market, causes an automatic rise in price. He then cashes out his stock at a profit.

So the motive of the fellow, to who we're both paying a fee remember, is no longer just trying to spot stocks that will rise because of something company X or its market is doing. He's also using our money to make the market move for him. And yes, our money did go into a stock that went up, but since it wasn't necessarily for any actual reason, it frequently sinks back down just as quick.

Most hydraulic brakes come with plastic widgets that can be clipped in place when the wheel is out precisely for this.

Also, depending on the brand, you may be able to lock the brake in place. My TRP Hy-Rd equipped bike is on a direct drive trainer at the moment, so I've pressed in and turned a small nut on the back brake body that locks it from being operated. Look up the manufacturers instructions for your brand.

Obviously, important to remember to release when putting the bike back into road action. At least the widget gets in the way of wheel re-insertion as a reminder of its presence.