Cycling UK Forum

And the irony of posting evidence to support the view that gut feelings are not reliable is not lost on me.

NATURAL ANKLING wrote:I think most of us on here would rather trust our gut than any opinion poll based on the fact that opinion polls are not 100% accurate?

Most of us on here?

Not me, I would definitely prefer to trust the evidence.

One opinion poll, take with a pinch of salt. A large number of opinion polls, conducted using large samples and proven statistical methods, maybe not 100% accurate, but that bar is too high. If they are 90%+ accurate (which they almost certainly are), that is good enough for me.

Gut feeling? Likely to be very inaccurate indeed.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/shadow-boxing/201303/trust-your-gut-not-so-fast
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/4-reasons-you-should-never-listen-to-your-gut-a6713931.html

NATURAL ANKLING wrote:Hi,

mr bajokoses wrote:

NATURAL ANKLING wrote:Hi,
661pete , I'm dictating on my mobile at the moment and it's rather difficult to quote you.
I said my mind wouldn't change on the referendum.
You said peoples minds have changed, but you can't give me Statistics can you?
And yes I do agree that peoples minds May have changed.
But how can anyone say without hard statistics that more people have changed to remain than to leave?
So we just gonna have to leave it at that.
Unless you're a betting man And you're basing your money on a hunch

No opinion poll since June 2017 has shown a majority in favour of brexit.

And you put your trust in such polls do you?

What else have you got? Don't tell me... gut feeling?

mercalia wrote:so Corbyn has won the day with the Labour Party the party for both remainers and leavers and a fudged New Referendum. We only get a chance if Labour cant get its deal through or a GE. The damage is Politics triumphs over Rationality? He is a lost cause I think? When you sacrifice rationality it is a slippery slope to any thing goes.

The truth will set you free.

Corbyn is trapped, with May and the rest of the liars who promoted brexit.

NATURAL ANKLING wrote:Hi,
661pete , I'm dictating on my mobile at the moment and it's rather difficult to quote you.
I said my mind wouldn't change on the referendum.
You said peoples minds have changed, but you can't give me Statistics can you?
And yes I do agree that peoples minds May have changed.
But how can anyone say without hard statistics that more people have changed to remain than to leave?
So we just gonna have to leave it at that.
Unless you're a betting man And you're basing your money on a hunch

No opinion poll since June 2017 has shown a majority in favour of brexit.

Mick F wrote:

mr bajokoses wrote:

Mick F wrote:I STILL want us to leave the EU.
Always have done, always will do.

If this is so, then why do you

Mick F wrote:listen to all the arguments

?

Of course I listen.
I don't disagree with the sentiments of the Remainers. I've read all the comments and advice! on here. They have their point of view, and it has credibility.
I still want us to leave.
...
Why can't people understand that just because I don't like something, I don't have to have an explainable reason?
Same as UK being in the EU. I don't like it and I want us out.

As I understand it, the purpose of listening to the arguments is to evaluate them, and if necessary, to adapt one's thinking.

Or is your mind completely closed?

Many remainers on here, myself included, have asked for leavers to make a persuasive case to convince them that brexit will not be a disaster. I think it's fair to say that they have failed, so far. After three years of trying to turn lies into truth, the government has also failed, so far, and is showing no signs at all of a turnaround in fortunes. But I, and I imagine others too, will weigh the evidence as it appears.

Mick F wrote:I STILL want us to leave the EU.
Always have done, always will do.

If this is so, then why do you

Mick F wrote:listen to all the arguments

?

mercalia wrote:I think we need a govt petition to the effect that those 500 or so mps who voted to activate A50 should never be allowed to stand as an mp ever again? would be rather funny if that got 6M up votes? If it looked like that was going to happen I bet the system would have an accident and not allow any more votes?

Why not start one and see how many signatures it gets?

al_yrpal wrote:Cugel, I beg to differ Britain is overcrowded.

In the south-east perhaps. Elsewhere eg the 'Welsh hinterland', large de-industrialised areas in the midlands and north, not at all.

As usual with your arguments, they have little or nothing to do with EU membership, and everything to do with dismal domestic government.

The solution? Leave the EU, obviously. Common sense, innit?

thirdcrank wrote:

mr bajokoses wrote: ... Perhaps the biggest difference between the two debates is that the 'winners' of the helmet debate will not get to force their world-view on the 'losers'.

Do you follow helmet threads? One of the recurrent themes is that there's a lot of pressure on non-wearers amounting to de facto compulsion.

Here's a current one
Big Bike revival ... yet more helmet normalising!
viewtopic.php?p=1345938#p1345938

Thanks for the enlightenment, I had no idea it was quite so polarised.

Not a lot of live and let live there

Mick F wrote:Riding yesterday, and musing over stuff as I do when riding, it occurred to me that there's a parallel on this Brexit thread and the helmet section.

We have a vast majority of folk on here who will never agree to leaving the EU, and we have a vast majority in the helmet section who will never agree to wear a helmet.

Opposite views of either get short shrift.

Perhaps the biggest difference between the two debates is that the 'winners' of the helmet debate will not get to force their world-view on the 'losers'.

Sure, a degree of flexibility is needed in the real-world interpretation of a manifesto. It gives a broad idea of what a party stands for. It allows a party to gain credibility by showing it has considered how its plans could be implemented.

With Farage's Brexit Party, I see two major risks:
1. His candidates are likely to be, let's put it nicely, suboptimally competent.
2. He doesn't put out a manifesto (plan) because he either hasn't thought about the detail (the charitable case) or he has no intention of honouring the GFA.

Farage is launching his new Brexit Party. Rather than preparing a manifesto, he says his party is 'campaigning on trust and on competence'.

How trustworthy and competent do we think Farage is? And his acolytes who are standing for election?

Psamathe wrote:

mr bajokoses wrote:

syklist wrote:
As in Tory party leaders not wanting to lose even more votes to UKIP/Farage's New Folly? The political calculation that for May to do a U-turn now would split the Tory vote forever and relegate it to third place for the foreseeable future?

The Labour Party seems to be struggling with the same thing which leaves only the smaller parties willing to stand in the EU elections on a clear pro-Remain platform.

Even that clear pro-Remain platform is looking difficult as it becomes more apparent that a second referendum simply cannot be staged when there is no actual deliverable brexit option to put on the ballot paper.

Every brexit problem is rooted in a lack of honesty, including the second referendum campaign.

Tories and Labour are up to their necks in lies. The smaller parties only slightly better.

I suspect that a currently "undeliverable" option if put on the ballot paper and chosen by the electorate would become deliverable. e.g. put "May's deal" as a referendum option and were it to win, MP support for that option would become more than adequate to pass it through.

Ian

It's the only way I can see a referendum making any sense. Quite a leap for May's deal given its three huge defeats in parliament.

syklist wrote:

mr bajokoses wrote:

kwackers wrote:It's never been about the will of the people.

Bizarrely it's not even about what's good for the country, if it were those advocating it would actually know how the country works and how we'd work outside the EU yet they appear to know neither.
Which begs the question; what exactly is it about?

Not wanting to lose face?

As in Tory party leaders not wanting to lose even more votes to UKIP/Farage's New Folly? The political calculation that for May to do a U-turn now would split the Tory vote forever and relegate it to third place for the foreseeable future?

The Labour Party seems to be struggling with the same thing which leaves only the smaller parties willing to stand in the EU elections on a clear pro-Remain platform.

Even that clear pro-Remain platform is looking difficult as it becomes more apparent that a second referendum simply cannot be staged when there is no actual deliverable brexit option to put on the ballot paper.

Every brexit problem is rooted in a lack of honesty, including the second referendum campaign.

Tories and Labour are up to their necks in lies. The smaller parties only slightly better.