Search found 3384 matches

by niggle
11 Mar 2020, 8:14am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 75261

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

I agree with not panicking, but carrying on as normal is not sensible or responsible either IMO. Vigilant hand washing and avoiding unnecessary visits to crowded public places are sensible strategies, rushing out to buy boot loads of loo roll and hand sanitiser are not. I am off to do a weekly shop in a minute, when the supermarket should be relatively quiet, I just hope I can get the normal size pack of loo roll that I actually need...
by niggle
11 Mar 2020, 7:45am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 75261

Re: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?

It is a new (to humans) Coronavirus, not Influenza AKA 'Flu.

It definitely came from another animal species (experts think possibly the Pangolin in this case), which has happened frequently through modern history, e.g. MERS, SARS, Ebola, HIV, Swine ‘Flu, Avian ‘Flu, Spanish ‘Flu (believed to originate from pigs and now estimated to have killed around 50 million world wide in 1918-19).

It seems quite obvious to me that most countries are not managing and not going to be able to contain this new Coronavirus, although China seems to be managing to get on top of it now through extreme state interventions. Certainly parts of the media are whipping up a storm, as is their way to generate more circulation and income, but this pandemic is clearly spreading very quickly, aided by high person-to-person transmission and an incubation period of 5-14 days, which allows people without symptoms to travel far and wide before they become ill.

I have heard epidemiologists predicting a 60% infection rate worldwide. Latest revised figures from China support a 1% death rate which, with a world population of 7.8 billion, works out at around 45 million deaths world wide, but China have advanced health care so are able to use modern life support for the most severely affected, therefore the death toll world wide could prove considerably higher if third world nations become significantly affected and if first world healthcare systems become inundated and unable to cope.

I would worry if I lived in a country without modern healthcare facilities, but also if in a country where there was no right to sick pay for a significant proportion of the workforce and/or a chronically under resourced and understaffed healthcare system :shock: . We have had a similar number of deaths as the US but have detected far more cases so far. It may be that, as well as the US failing to trace back contacts and test adequately, people in the US with symptoms may feel forced to struggle on going to work as long as they can.

I suspect that, as is already happening in Italy, there will be an exponential increase in case numbers in most of Europe, the UK, Japan, Australia and the US over the next month or two. There may be a lull over the summer months followed by a large new wave in the late autumn- I hope so as this would give us a chance to put the resources and manpower in that will be needed later. Unfortunately we are being told consistently that a vaccine will not be available for at least a year.
by niggle
11 Mar 2020, 12:04am
Forum: The Tea Shop
Topic: Coronavirus (aka COVID-19) - just how serious?
Replies: 2697
Views: 75261

Re: Coronavirus - just how serious?

horizon wrote:Just as points of information:

I don't receive the flu vaccine (and, as things stand, never voluntarily will)
I've never had the flu (AFAIK, but if I have I am here to talk about it)
I didn't ask for herd immunity
I don't rely on it or want it
No-one has ever asked me if I want "herd immunity" (I don't)
I completely accept how other people deal with their own health as long as they allow me to do the same
I am not an "anti-vaxxer" - people can do what they like as far as I am concerned
I've never ridden on the back of anything apart from bikes and horses
And no, I won't be having the coronavirus vaccine when it turns up and all the above applies to that as well


horizon wrote:The inference in the post that I replied to is that people who don't have the flu vaccine are exploiting the virtue of those who do. The only way I can refute that is to say that I don't want to, but of course there is no way I cannot.

I'm quite happy to put the recycling out and drive carefully but not to have myself be injected with something.


Why not? I have had the 'flu jab yearly for well over a decade, firstly as a health worker for the protection of vulnerable people I worked with then recently due to being in a risk group myself. I simply cannot think of a reason not to have it, and I would have it even if I had to pay, because 'flu is a deadly risk to the elderly and I feel it a civic duty to help prevent spreading it, a duty that is trivial to meet by having a really tiny prick in the arm that takes seconds, occasionally accompanied by a slight feeling of bruising in the area for a few hours.

I had genuine 'flu once in the late 90s, in fact my wife and I both had it in a severe form with excruciating sore throat, painful chesty cough, high temperature, chills, sweating, chronic diarrhoea, loss of appetite and generalised weakness that lasted a month, all while having to look after a toddler who was perfectly healthy so running us ragged.
by niggle
10 Mar 2020, 12:13pm
Forum: Bikes & Bits – Technical section
Topic: "PAUL'S" thumbies / "KELLY" take-offs for skinflints
Replies: 269
Views: 80305

Re: "PAUL'S" thumbies / "KELLY" take-offs for skinflints

I used an 'accessory bar' to mount a SRAM P5 trigger shifter on my drop bar ebike, the bar and clamps are all aluminium alloy so rigidity is adequate:

Image

It functions quite well, the accessory bar is standard flat bar thickness and I think flat bar rapid fire pods might work even better.
by niggle
20 Feb 2020, 10:51am
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Four year old killed by bike helmet.
Replies: 199
Views: 14102

Re: Four year old killed by bike helmet.

Mick F wrote::lol:

The Rotunda.
The building dates back to the 60s. Very modern for the day, and the first time we moved down here in Jan 1980, it was a Chrysler(?) dealership. Prior to that, it was Turnbulls garage.

https://www.oldclassiccar.co.uk/garage_plymouth.htm

Same building, now Evans.the-premises-of-evans-cycles-in-the-rotunda-charles-cross-plymouth-H7RD5F.jpg

Ha! The last time I went in that building, 10-15 years ago, it was a Hein Gericke shop, selling motorcycle clothing and accessories. I remember it for being a stone's throw from the bus station.
by niggle
16 Feb 2020, 2:41pm
Forum: Campaigning & Public Policy
Topic: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.
Replies: 87
Views: 6450

Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

The key point I am making is once it does surpass human driving, obviously the above examples are of rather simple 'driver aid' technology that has not achieved that yet, but AI is making great leaps forward all the time.

The first example is about ability to see and recognise hazards, this is ongoing in other AI fields and the advantages of AI include that any number of sensing technologies can be hard wired straight to the 'brain' and that reactions and decision making times will be exponentially quicker than the human brain, as well as better decision making due to installed algorithms and built in learning capacity.

The second example is trivial, with an ability to measure time and distance to an accuracy far exceeding that of humans one vehicle will always be recognised to have got there first and have priority and the other vehicles will know this and cede to it every time. (in the one in a million occasion when the systems fail to identify the vehicle with priority a very simple RNG 'flip of the coin' could decide this in an instant, far quicker than the human 'after you', 'no after you' scenario) Full AI control will enable vehicle to vehicle communication allowing much improved use of road space and real time most efficient route planning according to traffic conditions etc., plus seamless interactions between vehicles at junctions etc. Far from causing gridlock AI will be able to optimise the use of the road network and reduce congestion significantly.

The example of a vehicle failing to realise that it has detected armco ahead and braking is absurd, obviously AI controlled vehicles will have both built in mapping and GPS navigation that would in fact be far superior to human visual navigation, particularly after dark and in fog and heavy rain, in fact AI may not need lights at all and cyclists may no longer be required to have lights either.
by niggle
16 Feb 2020, 12:32pm
Forum: Campaigning & Public Policy
Topic: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.
Replies: 87
Views: 6450

Re: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Cyril Haearn wrote:No

Agreed :D

I look forward to it and I don't see why It can't happen quite soon, I would hope by the end of the decade.
by niggle
16 Feb 2020, 11:03am
Forum: Campaigning & Public Policy
Topic: Future of humans driving motor vehicles.
Replies: 87
Views: 6450

Future of humans driving motor vehicles.

Should humans be allowed to continue controlling motor vehicles on public roads once AI in driverless vehicles surpasses human controlled driving in safety and efficiency?
by niggle
16 Feb 2020, 10:54am
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Four year old killed by bike helmet.
Replies: 199
Views: 14102

Re: Four year old killed by bike helmet.

Bonefishblues wrote:...and these guys get it: https://helmets.org/playgrou.htm
...citing previous incidents.

Who should we alert/lobby here?

Ahh I think I get it now, from the link above:

Slatis said that for this reason the Swedish child helmet standard will require a strap to hold at 90 N (9 kg) but release before 160 N (16kg), which Slatis believes might have saved two of the six lives lost. The European EN 1080 standard for child helmets now has such a buckle, colored green to distinguish it from other buckles, but it is optional. In the period after it was added to the standard there were reports that it was problematic, and that parents were avoiding it. At present, there are green buckles on child helmets sold in major toy stores and department retailers, but regular buckles on child helmets sold in some other stores where the retailer believes in stronger straps.

(My bold)

Mind you the article also glibly says:

A strong strap is necessary to keep a helmet on the child's head during a crash, and helmets with strong straps have saved hundreds or thousands of lives, so these incidents must be seen in that perspective.


:evil:
by niggle
15 Feb 2020, 11:46pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: helmets from Why wear black?
Replies: 385
Views: 18088

Re: helmets from Why wear black?

NUKe wrote:You only have to remove one thing, the nut behind the wheel.

Yup. Here is one way to do that: viewtopic.php?p=1444355#p1444336
by niggle
15 Feb 2020, 11:14pm
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: Four year old killed by bike helmet.
Replies: 199
Views: 14102

Re: Four year old killed by bike helmet.

Had a look at Halfords helmet offerings for kids, there are 74 different models so just took a look at a few and found a toddler's helmet and a 4 years+ helmet showing the specific model's EC Declaration of conformity, both just referring to EN 1078

Toddler helmet:

Image

4 yrs+:

Image

Something weird seems to be going on.
by niggle
15 Feb 2020, 6:05pm
Forum: Campaigning & Public Policy
Topic: 250 Miles
Replies: 42
Views: 2807

Re: 250 Miles

Cugel wrote:What would fill the travel-gap, were the cars to be made extinct? It might be bikes, buses, AI electric taxis or something completely different. (I favour trolley buses myself, as they are nice things from my yoof).

But it might be that the cultural niche (lots of travel by humans, all over the place) gradually closes as the humans realise they don't really want to travel all over the place. After all, "here" might now be a lot nicer than "there" if "here" is now car-free. :-)

Cugel

I can imagine decisions being made re which transportation systems to install on a local basis, e.g. inner cities may well opt for trams, trolley buses, underground or overhead rail, etc., according to what suits their topography and the needs of their travellers, whilst the suburbs and countryside may go more the way of the AI taxi and ground level rail.

I would not expect humans to stop wanting to travel occasionally for pleasure and discovery any time soon, but a lot of other travel such as for business, commuting and even shopping can and likely will be reduced IMO by modern communications and changes in the manner, hours and location of work.
by niggle
15 Feb 2020, 5:43pm
Forum: Campaigning & Public Policy
Topic: 250 Miles
Replies: 42
Views: 2807

Re: 250 Miles

Oldjohnw wrote:What a dystopian nightmare! State controlled movement. Big brother if ever there was. Individual freedom and agency removed.

Nobody's movement would be controlled by the state and what freedom and agency exactly is removed, when you can still go where you want, when you want? The only 'freedom' lost is of being able to travel in ways that put others' health and safety at risk and damage the environment.
by niggle
15 Feb 2020, 12:52pm
Forum: Campaigning & Public Policy
Topic: 250 Miles
Replies: 42
Views: 2807

Re: 250 Miles

In Niggletopia the driving of motor vehicles by humans will be banned and the taxi and bus services will be replaced by driverless taxi-bus units, driven by AI that always drives with courtesy and safety around all other road users, always signalling and giving way where it should, using electric or hydrogen power generated entirely from renewable sources, having intelligent route planning and real time communication with all other driverless vehicles so that interactions on the road are safe, seamless and efficient, plus whenever two or more are heading in the same direction they will join magnetically to form buses for greater efficiency. Humans will be released from the stress of vehicle driving and negotiating traffic and will be able to relax and enjoy or utilise the journey in whatever way they prefer.

The cost per mile will be significantly cheaper than private car use, and opportunities for vehicle sharing will be highlighted to users when booking, with the cost per mile being reduced by dividing it equally between the users. The vehicles will be constantly available and used efficiently so that pick ups and drop offs are coordinated to reduce the amount of travelling between them to a minimum.

The keeping of privately owned vehicles on the highway will also be banned, thus greatly freeing up the streets for more efficient travel by the driverless vehicles and more space for humans to engage in active travel options alike. Driverless taxi-bus units will be kept in storage parks when not in use, underground or on unused brownfield sites, where automated maintenance and safety checks will be carried out, but the over all numbers of vehicles required will be greatly reduced in any case.

Some people may chose to own and use their own driverless tax-bus units, but these will have to be fully integrated with the system of other driverless vehicles and will have to meet the same efficiency standards as the other taxi-bus units.

The driverless taxi-bus system will only ever be available where the route cannot be completed by more efficient means, e.g. rail networks, and longer personal journeys will be bookable and purchased in one go, from starting point to destination using e.g. taxi-rail-taxi. Motorways and trunk roads will be re-purposed as fast or high speed electrified rail networks and domestic flying will also be banned.

All other vehicles, e.g. local delivery goods wagons, will be replaced by driverless vehicles powered by renewables on the road, or by rail freight according to feasibility and best efficiency. Emergency vehicles will also be driverless, highly efficient and the interconnected system will prioritise their movement through the other vehicles to reduce response times to the minimum possible.
by niggle
14 Feb 2020, 10:59am
Forum: Helmets & helmet discussion
Topic: helmets from Why wear black?
Replies: 385
Views: 18088

Re: helmets from Why wear black?

BlueRider wrote:I have no idea why you continue with these strawman arguments.


Wikipedia wrote:A straw man is a form of argument and an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent's argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not presented by that opponent. One who engages in this fallacy is said to be "attacking a straw man".


Please point out where anyone has done this, because I cannot see any examples.

BlueRider wrote:The only thing of any relevence in a discussion of helmet use when cycling is the use of helmets when cycling. :?


If the wearing of helmets has consequences, positive or negative, then the consequences are relevant, whether intentional or not. The relevance is e.g. to whether an individual chooses to wear one, whether the wearing of them should be encouraged, or even made compulsory.