Postby slowster » 23 Feb 2021, 11:14am
Often in business making a substantial change involves significant uncertainty and risk of failure, especially something like attempting to expand abroad and break into a new market.
For Rose Bikes, Bike Discount, Bikester and the other german online retailers it's the complete opposite. They already knew to the last penny exactly what their sales were to the UK, and also how profitable those sales were. That is what they will all have based their decisions on, set against the extra burdens that now exist if they wish to continue selling to the UK.
The size of the UK economy is irrelevant. It is the size of the UK market for the particular products that they sell to UK customers that matters. Rose Bikes in particular has not resumed selling to the UK, unlike some of the other german retailers. That suggests to me that many of the products for which they were most appreciated by UK customers (and some of which are simply not available from other retailers), are also not particularly profitable lines. Without the sales also of more profitable/big ticket items, such as complete bikes and clothing (which I suspect have not been big sellers in the UK for Rose Bikes), the smaller niche sales are possibly more trouble that they are worth.
The fact that reduced barriers and costs to trade increases trade and wealth is at the heart of economic theory. Usually it is something which economists can only observe and measure when a trade deal results in increased trade between countries. Brexit is the first occasion where they get to observe the effect in reverse.