Trends in windy days

General cycling advice ( NOT technical ! )
Garry Booth
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Trends in windy days

Postby Garry Booth » 27 Sep 2019, 4:09pm

We hear a lot about trends in temperature and also rainfall but not so much about wind. Is the UK getting windier - or is just me?
(Not me getting windier - that goes with age - I mean the weather... )

Icsunonove
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby Icsunonove » 27 Sep 2019, 4:13pm

Short answer is yes I think. Higher mean temperature = more energy = more 'weather'

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Spinners
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby Spinners » 27 Sep 2019, 4:49pm

It really does seem like it!
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Harpsta22
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby Harpsta22 » 27 Sep 2019, 5:10pm

Don’t think I’ve had a non windy ride all year. :(

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deliquium
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby deliquium » 27 Sep 2019, 5:19pm

It definitely is here in my part of Snowdonia. I've kept a daily record of my cycling over the last 5 or so years (average cycling days per year 354) and always logged whether it was benign, breezy, windy, gales or too dangerous to cycle. Last year and this year there are large increases in windiness. It's been very rare not to have days where the very local Met Office reports wind gusts (as opposed to mean wind speeds) have been below 20mph. There have been way more days in 2019 where it's been too dangerous to cycle - so I'm sure I'll be below my 354 days average with 3 months still to go! Wind direction trends have been much the same with the majority being ~SW. I live at the southern foot of Snowdon, some 12 miles inland from the Bay of Tremadog, so there's only Hebog between me and the Snowdon massif and the Carneddau further north. The Moelwynion are to my east
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Tigerbiten
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby Tigerbiten » 27 Sep 2019, 5:50pm

It's a butterfly's fault.

I've heard that the flapping of a butterfly's wings can cause a hurricane on the other side of the world.
So if you can find that butterfly somewhere in the Pacific and kill it, then the weather will settle down here.
Then again we don't get many hurricanes here, so hurricane forming butterflies must be rare ............ :lol:

PDQ Mobile
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby PDQ Mobile » 27 Sep 2019, 7:45pm

deliquium wrote:It definitely is here in my part of Snowdonia. I've kept a daily record of my cycling over the last 5 or so years (average cycling days per year 354) and always logged whether it was benign, breezy, windy, gales or too dangerous to cycle. Last year and this year there are large increases in windiness. It's been very rare not to have days where the very local Met Office reports wind gusts (as opposed to mean wind speeds) have been below 20mph. There have been way more days in 2019 where it's been too dangerous to cycle - so I'm sure I'll be below my 354 days average with 3 months still to go! Wind direction trends have been much the same with the majority being ~SW. I live at the southern foot of Snowdon, some 12 miles inland from the Bay of Tremadog, so there's only Hebog between me and the Snowdon massif and the Carneddau further north. The Moelwynion are to my east

Well I disagree with that.
I live not so far away.
Nearer to the coast which is drier than the mountain massive.

This year and last year have been relatively benign.
The extreme winds around Xmas time of a couple of years ago (2 years running) that felled and weakened so many trees in Snowdonia did not happen last winter.

Last summer was very dry and hot - record breaking heat actually. Porthmadog 32 degrees couple of days running. Wind then in the East to SE quadrant.

And this summer has been remarkable for its natural abundance, particularly of fruit and nuts, not as hot as last year and with more rain though not excessive and IMHO not particularly windy.
Wind more often from the East than usual I would say.
We had a series of very unsettled and wet summers way back in the nineties.
They really were very gloomy.

Bmblbzzz
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby Bmblbzzz » 27 Sep 2019, 7:52pm

Icsunonove wrote:Short answer is yes I think. Higher mean temperature = more energy = more 'weather'

Laws of physics would suggest this as well as empirical observation. It won't be uniformly spread in geography or time, obviously.

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deliquium
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby deliquium » 27 Sep 2019, 8:08pm

PDQ Mobile wrote:Well I disagree with that.
I live not so far away.
Nearer to the coast which is drier than the mountain massive.


My observation and records show notably Nantgwtnant to be windier over the last few years - given that I cycle most days of the year. Even Porthmadog sometimes sees greater wind speeds, being on the coast than I've ever noticed before.

I think it's very local here. Perhaps you live in, for example, Penrhyndeudraeth? Or anywhere other than Nantgwynant?

The weather and wind will be very different and affected by local topography and the bike one on rides too?

Fascinating subject though :)
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby PDQ Mobile » 27 Sep 2019, 8:24pm

deliquium wrote:
PDQ Mobile wrote:Well I disagree with that.
I live not so far away.
Nearer to the coast which is drier than the mountain massive.


My observation and records show notably Nantgwtnant to be windier over the last few years - given that I cycle most days of the year. Even Porthmadog sometimes sees greater wind speeds, being on the coast than I've ever noticed before.

I think it's very local here. Perhaps you live in, for example, Penrhyndeudraeth? Or anywhere other than Nantgwynant?

The weather and wind will be very different and affected by local topography and the bike one on rides too?

Fascinating subject though :)


Not trying to be provocative- unusually!

I just think the last couple of summers have been relatively calm. And dry. Certainly the coastal strip is always drier, though not less windy.

Average annual rainfall is informative:-
Beach (the sandy strip) at Harlech is around 30" (similar to central England!)
Rhiniog foothills double that.
Blaenau Ff. 90"
Summit of Snowdon 200"!!

Nantgwynant is also wet; I guess around100"

But after more than 40 years around the place I don't think the last couple of years have been any more windy. The opposite if anything.

However the terrible Xmas storms I mentioned have resulted in more felled old and beautiful trees in the last 5 years than in all the previous 35.
Though we did have a real destructive stonker of a blow once in the mid Eighties. Bill Condry wrote about it in his Guardian Country Diary;
"A wind the like of which I had never experienced" or similar words.
Last edited by PDQ Mobile on 27 Sep 2019, 9:26pm, edited 1 time in total.

roubaixtuesday
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby roubaixtuesday » 27 Sep 2019, 9:07pm

The intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) was set up by the UN to investigate climate change.

They look both at past trends and future projections.

On wind speed in Europe they conclude for past trends:

Mean wind speeds have declined over Europe over recent decades (Vautard et al., 2010) with low confidence because of problematic anemometer data and climate variability (SREX Section 3.3). Bett et al (2013) did not find any trend in windspeed using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis.


ie not sure, but if anything gone down rather than up.

And for future projections:

Changes in future circulation patterns (Ulbrich et al., 2009; Kreienkamp et al., 2010) and mean wind speed trends are uncertain in sign (Kjellström et al., 2011; McInnes et al., 2011).


ie the effects of future climate change on wind speeds are unknown.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads ... _FINAL.pdf

tim-b
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby tim-b » 28 Sep 2019, 6:35am

Hi
You can get localised data with lots more detail, but it costs. Energy Trends: UK weather includes the following "highlights":

"WIND SPEED
Table 7.2 Average wind speed and deviations from the long term mean
Latest month
The August 2019 average wind speed was 8.5 knots, 1.0 knots higher than the same month in 2018, and 0.8 knots higher than the 10-year average covering the period 2002 to 2011.
Latest three months
The average wind speed for the three months June 2019 to August 2019 was 7.9 knots, 0.9 knots higher than in the same period a year earlier, and broadly similar to the 10-year average."
March 2019 average was the windiest for about ten years, but even that was only +1.4 knots (1.61mph) over the 10-year mean

From UK-wide data (see table ET7.2) dated 26 September 2019

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cycleruk
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby cycleruk » 28 Sep 2019, 9:24am

It certainly seems windier since they erected all these wind farms :? :wink:
You'll never know if you don't try it.

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Audax67
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby Audax67 » 28 Sep 2019, 1:51pm

Windier = higher wind speed or more windy days or both.

So far this year we've had more windy days.
Have we got time for another cuppa?

Bmblbzzz
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Re: Trends in windy days

Postby Bmblbzzz » 28 Sep 2019, 1:52pm

It could be that variability in wind is increasing, both in time - so more calm days but also more days of very strong winds - and in geography.