When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

General cycling advice ( NOT technical ! )
marl0we
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When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby marl0we » 29 Jul 2020, 2:37pm

Apologies if this isn't the right place to ask this.

I'm wondering if anyone knows how/when the bike supply chain will recover from the pandemic. When will the supply of bikes catch up with the increased demand (ie when will bike shops get stock available again)? And will next year's models be released as planned, or will there be delays? I realise it's hard to predict - any theories or inside knowledge would be greatly appreciated.

In particular, does anyone have any insight on Decathlon's UK bike range? I've been checking a particular bike for weeks (Triban RC520 with flat handlebars) but there hasn't been any availability at all. Does anyone know how long it will take for Decathlon to restock their bikes? Would it be worth waiting for next year's models or should I buy the current version as soon as I can? Thanks

Eyebrox
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby Eyebrox » 29 Jul 2020, 5:04pm

I work in a bike shop. Plenty accessories coming in but component availability a bit sketchy (and up in price). Bikes not arriving until mid November although there are a few XS and XL sizes doing the rounds. Not sure of Decathlon's stocks. Best place an order and prepare for some winter cycling.

NickWi
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby NickWi » 29 Jul 2020, 5:17pm

Sea freight from the Far East is typically 6 weeks plus handling & distribution at both ends. Allowing for the fact that the Chinese factories restarted work before ours did then any 'old' orders that caught up in the lockdown ought to be arriving anytime soon.

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531colin
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby 531colin » 1 Aug 2020, 4:38pm

Frames ordered NOW from up-to-date, signed-off drawings.....delivery March.

Rilkal47
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby Rilkal47 » 2 Aug 2020, 9:57pm

They are starting to filter through; Merida, Decathlon, Orbea, Dolan and Boardman have all announced 2021 models and have them up for order.

Shouldn’t be too long for the manufacturer you want.

Jamesh
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby Jamesh » 2 Aug 2020, 10:27pm

It does supprise me that distributors by a X quantity and when they are gone they are gone rather than buying X number per month in a rolling basis.

Same goes with running shoes it seems once they are sold out that it.

Where as most retail is just in time.

Cheers James

PH
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby PH » 2 Aug 2020, 11:07pm

Jamesh wrote:It does supprise me that distributors by a X quantity and when they are gone they are gone rather than buying X number per month in a rolling basis.

That's the nature of the Chinese industrial revolution. Predict demand and place the order, not long after it's been fulfilled the same factory will be making something else for another customer. Highly efficient, but not much leeway for the unexpected.

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531colin
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby 531colin » 3 Aug 2020, 9:09am

PH wrote:
Jamesh wrote:It does supprise me that distributors by a X quantity and when they are gone they are gone rather than buying X number per month in a rolling basis.

That's the nature of the Chinese industrial revolution. Predict demand and place the order, not long after it's been fulfilled the same factory will be making something else for another customer. Highly efficient, but not much leeway for the unexpected.

No, its the nature of bicycle production.
You set the frame jig, then you make 30 frames in a size 54. Then you re-set the jig, and make 25 size 51.....and so on.
If you are ordering every month, you want a couple of bikes in each size of say 5 different models. Slower, more expensive, more error prone.

PH
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby PH » 3 Aug 2020, 9:24am

531colin wrote:
PH wrote:
Jamesh wrote:It does supprise me that distributors by a X quantity and when they are gone they are gone rather than buying X number per month in a rolling basis.

That's the nature of the Chinese industrial revolution. Predict demand and place the order, not long after it's been fulfilled the same factory will be making something else for another customer. Highly efficient, but not much leeway for the unexpected.

No, its the nature of bicycle production.

I think we might be talking about a different scale of production.

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531colin
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby 531colin » 3 Aug 2020, 9:35am

Whatever the scale of production....how is it economic to make the same product every month ? (for X number of products)
Its always cheaper, more consistent, and less error prone to make a big batch.....isn't it?

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simonineaston
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby simonineaston » 3 Aug 2020, 9:42am

bikes, masks, virus tests, toilet roll, 500g bags of flour - all in short supply. Modern life, eh?!
ttfn, Simon in Easton
(currently enjoying a Moulton TSR & a nano Brompton...)

PH
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby PH » 3 Aug 2020, 10:53am

531colin wrote:Whatever the scale of production....how is it economic to make the same product every month ? (for X number of products)
Its always cheaper, more consistent, and less error prone to make a big batch.....isn't it?

Yes, that's very much the point, I don't know what we're disagreeing about.
Raleigh in Nottingham used to make Raleigh bikes, if one model was selling better than expected, they'd make some more. There's no question about it being less economic or more error prone, but it was a possibility. The difference in Chinese production is the volume and timescale, it isn't your factory to do with as demand dictates, it's making your product for a short time and then moving on to something else. That something else could be an entirely different product rather than a variation, the ability to do that wasn't an accident it was a major part of the industrial policy.

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Paul Smith SRCC
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby Paul Smith SRCC » 3 Aug 2020, 11:10am

PH wrote:...Raleigh in Nottingham used to make Raleigh bikes, if one model was selling better than expected, they'd make some more....

When I first started in the cycle trade in the mid eighties Raleigh were still a major force, I worked for one of their five star dealers (Pearson Cycles). Yes Raleigh still made their bikes in Nottingham back then and in theory yes "if one model was selling better than expected, they'd make some more", the reality was they would still frequently run out of bikes and for far longer than you'd have thought; they were often slow to react, very frustrating bearing in mind that as five star dealer we were only allowed to sell Raleigh!.

The Covid Pandemic created a spike in the demand especially for entry level bikes, the result being many stores had a good few weeks until they had sold all their stock, restocking was almost instantly an issue. 2021 bikes have now started to arrive, traditionally the higher end models are the first to appear plus these were less effected by the Pandemic, entry level bikes are still in extremely short supply.The distributors are understandably advising record sales and record forward orders for 2021; I'd wager by this time next year if the pandemic is by then under control and we are closer to being back to normal this will result in surplus stock

It is still challenging times as far as I'm concerned, I have only just gone back from furlough and even now it's on a part time basis.

francovendee
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Re: When will bike shops replenish their stock, and when will 2021 models be released?

Postby francovendee » 3 Aug 2020, 1:36pm

Since the 90's the move in manufacturing has been to adopt JIT . By doing this they reduce the amounts of cash held in warehouses. It also means that should a product require a modification it can be implemented rapidly.
The old way of producing large batches to hold as stock has been superceded. Companies are now better placed to handle demand changes.
When I implemented it, we went from holding millions of £'s of stock and lead times of 3 months to a 1 week lead time. It did increase the cost of manufacture but this was more than covered by the savings from not holding the stock.