Tier 4 exercise limits

General cycling advice ( NOT technical ! )
Oldjohnw
Posts: 5733
Joined: 16 Oct 2018, 4:23am
Location: Northumberland

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby Oldjohnw » 9 Jan 2021, 3:00pm

Zulu Eleven wrote:
Oldjohnw wrote:As long as your brother or bit partner is not an asymptomatic carrier


Setting aside the fact that significant risk of asymptotic spread has not yet been proven (BMJ, 21 December 2020), It still doesn’t add to a significant spreading event as the mitigation steps included prevent onward transmission.


I never said a significant spreading event. But the poster might have been at risk which is what we were talking about
John

Oldjohnw
Posts: 5733
Joined: 16 Oct 2018, 4:23am
Location: Northumberland

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby Oldjohnw » 9 Jan 2021, 3:28pm

Of course if there was more clarity many of these issues would not arise.
John

gbnz
Posts: 1901
Joined: 13 Sep 2008, 10:38am

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby gbnz » 9 Jan 2021, 3:37pm

BakfietsUK wrote:What are your thoughts on this please?


Think it through carefully and then follow the path that's right for you!

Suppose I haven't caught Covid, nor know anyone who has. So my lengthy daily walks, runs and rides on empty roads/paths/beaches must be right, even if they may not be in compliance with the rules. End of the day, I'm not going to catch or pass on covid by passing a cow, a sheep or sun bathing* whilst on my essential daily exercise routine (Nb. During The spring lockdown, not now!)

Suppose some of those carefully following the rules, but failing to think whilst carefully eating out to help out within weeks of the original lockdown, dropping into the city with sky high covid rates to take advantage of post lockdown sales, happily sitting down in a packed McDonalds, may not have been so lucky :?

Stevek76
Posts: 646
Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby Stevek76 » 9 Jan 2021, 4:14pm

Jdsk wrote:"Asymptomatic"

And it's very important not to extrapolate inappropriately from that uncertainty about the rate of transmission.


I wonder if cases of asymptomatic transmission are more a difference between actually asymptomatic in the medical sense, and those that act as if they're asymptomatic but are actually weakly or moderately symptomatic and busy infecting everyone around them. I'm sure we all know these people, they're the ones who turn up at work with a gross cold insisting that they are neither ill nor infectious, not always quite sure whether they're genuinely oblivious or if they just think the company will fall apart if they take a couple of days off :roll: (noting here that this is in 'white collar' jobs where they get full sick pay)

Oldjohnw
Posts: 5733
Joined: 16 Oct 2018, 4:23am
Location: Northumberland

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby Oldjohnw » 9 Jan 2021, 4:46pm

Dr Rachel Clark, the doctor who was so passionate on BBCQT last Thursday, says they are now treating families who caught it from a relative with whom they had dinner on Xmas day and afterwards tested +ve.
John

User avatar
mjr
Posts: 16579
Joined: 20 Jun 2011, 7:06pm
Location: Norfolk or Somerset, mostly
Contact:

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby mjr » 9 Jan 2021, 6:34pm

thirdcrank wrote:
.... It is almost certainly not illegal because the "local" requirement does *** NOT *** appear in the law. ...


I presume that's what was intended.

Yes, sorry. Fkipping autocorrect keeps changIng "doesn't" on this tabl3t - but look what it leaves!

previous post edited
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.

robing
Posts: 1266
Joined: 7 Sep 2014, 9:11am

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby robing » 9 Jan 2021, 10:39pm

The latest thing is some quarters will call for mask wearing outdoors. Mayor Khan is already proposing this in London.

User avatar
mjr
Posts: 16579
Joined: 20 Jun 2011, 7:06pm
Location: Norfolk or Somerset, mostly
Contact:

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby mjr » 9 Jan 2021, 11:50pm

robing wrote:The latest thing is some quarters will call for mask wearing outdoors. Mayor Khan is already proposing this in London.

Too late. It might have helped with the Harrods xmas shopping crowd scene posted earlier in the other topic, but there should not be enough people out in lockdown for it to make a difference.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.

Brucey
Posts: 42124
Joined: 4 Jan 2012, 6:25pm

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby Brucey » 10 Jan 2021, 2:59am

it is too late to avoid the current situation but it isn't 'too late' to help stop things from getting (exponentially) worse.

FWIW the anecdotal evidence is that there are more people out and about now than in the lockdown nine months ago. I suspect that we are mainly reaping the effects of transmission at Christmas plus the more transmissible new variant, plus it being an indoorsy time of year etc and that these effects are much more important than the behavioural differences between this lockdown and earlier ones. However it doesn't take much to drive the R rate above 1 and once it is, the rate of new cases will be exponential.

If they want the situation to remain under some semblance of control, it'll soon be a case of doing whatever can be done which is likely to do any good whatsoever. In the worse case, if nothing is done, whatever the mortality rate is in untreated cases will apply to any additional cases.

Thus far in the UK about 3M people have had covid and (despite treatment) about 80K have died, which is about a 3% mortality rate. It isn't a big stretch to believe that the untreated mortality rate might be 10% or so. The maths is then both brutal and simple; exponentially increased transmission rates might translate to (say, and this is a conservative estimate ) 13M more people getting covid in the next nine months. If the NHS is already at full stretch, then 10M of those won't be (properly) treated and 10% mortality rate in additional cases is possible. This would be a 1M death toll in the UK population; (about the same as WWII..?). If transmission rate are worse than that there might be another (say) 23M cases in the same time period and 10% of 20M is 2M deaths. Even if the NHS somehow treats all the new cases as well as they have until now (which would require about x8 the resource), that would still be about 600K deaths.

So it is a multi-faceted problem; if enough of the population can be successfully vaccinated then this will lower the R rate. Further lockdown measures will (if implemented in a timely and effective fashion) also help. Against that is the likely emergence of even more transmissible variants (these are the ones that tend to thrive, for obvious reasons) and the exponential rate of new case increase once R goes above 1.

The bottom line is that in terms of death rate in the UK population we are potentially facing a problem which is as big as a major war. Almost any cost is likely to be deemed 'acceptable' to keep a lid on things.

good health, all
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Brucey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

andrewwillans49
Posts: 96
Joined: 11 Aug 2018, 7:38am

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby andrewwillans49 » 10 Jan 2021, 6:50am

Brucey ww2 deaths in Britain 450000. Just saying.

User avatar
speedsixdave
Posts: 810
Joined: 19 Apr 2007, 1:48pm
Location: Nottingham, UK

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby speedsixdave » 10 Jan 2021, 9:07am

andrewwillans49 wrote:Brucey ww2 deaths in Britain 450000. Just saying.


Not that there's any helpful equivalency between the two, but if we've had 80000 deaths in one year of the coronavirus in the UK that would be 480000 deaths over six years at the same rate. So the death rate in the UK is higher than that of the Second World War. Very chastening.
Big wheels good, small wheels better.
Two saddles best!

Pebble
Posts: 434
Joined: 7 Jun 2020, 11:59pm

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby Pebble » 10 Jan 2021, 9:36am

speedsixdave wrote:
andrewwillans49 wrote:Brucey ww2 deaths in Britain 450000. Just saying.


Not that there's any helpful equivalency between the two, but if we've had 80000 deaths in one year of the coronavirus in the UK that would be 480000 deaths over six years at the same rate. So the death rate in the UK is higher than that of the Second World War. Very chastening.

Think you need to somehow factor in the age of those who are dying, a lot of young men died in WW2. Big difference between a fit 19 year old with his life in front of him to a 91 year old with lots of other health problems.

Barks
Posts: 302
Joined: 14 Oct 2016, 5:27pm

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby Barks » 10 Jan 2021, 9:40am

1% of 67,000,000 is 670,000 - let’s really hope the vaccine is effective.

User avatar
Sweep
Posts: 6849
Joined: 20 Oct 2011, 4:57pm
Location: London

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby Sweep » 10 Jan 2021, 9:47am

robing wrote:The latest thing is some quarters will call for mask wearing outdoors. Mayor Khan is already proposing this in London.

Does he have any medical evidence for that proposal?
Sweep

Jdsk
Posts: 5146
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Tier 4 exercise limits

Postby Jdsk » 10 Jan 2021, 10:44am

Sweep wrote:
robing wrote:The latest thing is some quarters will call for mask wearing outdoors. Mayor Khan is already proposing this in London.

Does he have any medical evidence for that proposal?

Before I answer...

1 Is this a serious question? i'm not missing irony or anything else...
2 Do you think that there is a new viral disease that has killed about 80,000 people in the UK?

Thanks

Jonathan