Brucey wrote:Thus far in the UK about 3M people have had covid and (despite treatment) about 80K have died, which is about a 3% mortality rate. It isn't a big stretch to believe that the untreated mortality rate might be 10% or so.
That is a big overstatement of the mortality rate. The number of known cases is not the same as the total number of actual infections. The ONS infection survey estimated that 1.1m were infected with the disease just during the week up to 2nd Jan, the total estimate of non-overlapping info from that survey appears to be around 6.5m and it wasn't being undertaken until the tail end of the first wave. Actual mortality rates for COVID-19 are a tricky thing to estimate, but most attempts to do so seem to be around the 1% mark, some a bit higher, some as low as half that and most indications are that it is lower than it first was, probably as a result of better treatment of critical cases.
Obviously it becomes a major problem when NHS capacity is exceeded (not to mention the knock on deaths from all the regular NHS work that is delayed) and the government's approach to this has been dreadful to say the least, however I think your estimates are rather pessimistic, particularly given the vaccine rollout.
Psamathe wrote:They said there are more people out and about and more traffic compared to spring lockdown but it's because this lockdown is somewhat less restrictive than the spring lockdown (which is presumably why the scientific advisors and experts have for some time been calling for the lockdown to be made more restrictive (but Johnson seems to prefer the finger crossing route).
It is considerably less restrictive, primarily on work. I recall the first lockdown was stay home unless the job was non essential. Now it's only stay home unless you cannot work from home, hence the considerably larger number of people out going to work. That said, early indications from both the government dashboard and the KCL zoe project are that the case rate is no longer exponential though clearly this government are not of the 'a stitch in time' inclination.