Is cycling getting more dangerous?

[David2504]

A rather alarming report in today’s Guardian based on data showing a 40% increase in 2020 of cyclists killed in road accidents.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... gures-show

[Jdsk]

I can't tell from the data presented.

Jonathan

[Mick F]

Is cycling getting more dangerous?

In a word, NO.

[David2504]

Is cycling getting more dangerous?

In a word, NO.

You’re a very experienced cyclist. Others are not so confident.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyl ... rous-safer

[Mick F]

66% of cyclists?
Where?
Who?
Are they actual cyclists?

Thanks for the link.
It's not universal, so cycling is not getting more dangerous.

[PH]

My impression is that driving standards have dropped, probably directly in proportion to the drop in police funding for enforcement and possibly the drop in attention due to the frequent use of mobile phones while driving. I don't see any proposal to address this.

[Maillot Rouge]

Is cycling getting more dangerous?

In a word, NO.

Agreed.

[Stevek76]

There's a link in the guardian article to the DfT provisional stats19 summary data for 2020 which has the answer

However, despite an increase in pedal cycle fatalities, there was a slight (4%) reduction in fatality rates for pedal cyclists and a much larger reduction in the pedal cycle casualty rate of 34% between 2019 and 2020

So no, cycling has actually become safer. The number of fatalities is up but the total distance cycled was up more.

[slowster]

There's a link in the guardian article to the DfT provisional stats19 summary data for 2020 which has the answer

However, despite an increase in pedal cycle fatalities, there was a slight (4%) reduction in fatality rates for pedal cyclists and a much larger reduction in the pedal cycle casualty rate of 34% between 2019 and 2020

So no, cycling has actually become safer. The number of fatalities is up but the total distance cycled was up more.

I think 2020 was so unusual that it is probably too soon to draw hard and fast conclusions from such data.

For example, although the total number of miles cycled per fatality rose, there was probably also a significant change in the number of miles cycled for commuting vs. leisure. The percentage of miles ridden by commuters was probably lower than normal, and the percentage of miles ridden by leisure cyclists was probably much higher than normal. The former are likely to have a higher risk per mile of accident/collision with other road users, because commuters have much less choice about where they ride and at what time, e.g. often busy roads at rush hour. Leisure cyclists will obviously choose when and where to ride, and will pick routes that are pleasanter, safer and with less traffic.

In other words, if the fatality rate per mile reduced only because of more leisure cycling miles being ridden, then cycling has not become safer.

[gbnz]

A rather alarming report in today’s Guardian based on data showing a 40% increase in 2020 of cyclists killed in road accidents.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... gures-show

Given there was a colossal increase in cycling no's locally last year, I'd have to say no.

Locally one may see perhaps one other cyclist on a 40-50 mile ride (Nb. Unless the ride was inland, in which case it'd be unusual to seee another cyclist over a 70-80 mile ride). But last year? Coming across perhaps 20-30 cyclists on every 30 mile local ride became the norm. Even now, one see's another 4-5 cyclists on a 30 mile ride. It's actually become normal to see road cyclists on the road

So? A 2000-3000% increase in cycling no.'s locally last year, which if it resulted in a 40% increase in deaths, wouldn't be too serious

[David2504]

My view is that there is no objective measure of danger, and therefore the answer to the question can only be answered at a personal level

[Nessie23]

My response to the question is…..NO.
I am both a motorist and a cyclist. When I am in my car I believe the standard of driving has deteriorated over the last few years. However, when on my bike I believe motorists have become more courteous to cyclists. Maybe this is a result of the obvious increase in cycling activity over the past year and motorists adapting to the increased numbers.

[Merlin]

`My impression is that there a lot more inexperienced (and often ignorant) cyclists on the UK roads, with the sport enjoying huge growth as it becomes the "new golf" for many.

That leads to, naturally more deaths if there are more riders. It also leads to altercations with drivers and the souring of cyclists' reputations with drivers - not that the reputation in the UK has ever been equivalent to more advanced countries IME.

[drossall]

However, when on my bike I believe motorists have become more courteous to cyclists. Maybe this is a result of the obvious increase in cycling activity over the past year and motorists adapting to the increased numbers.

I agree. Both the 2012 Olympics and the increase in leisure riding in Covid have led to a situation where drivers encounter more cyclists, and have more friends and family who cycle, and therefore see it as more normal. Standards around cyclists of many drivers are improving, and the slow to catch on are getting drivers in front demonstrating to them how overtaking etc. are done. It's all helping.

Hopefully also it's undermining the always-daft idea that cyclists are a breed apart, as opposed to being your neighbour who often drives, but is on two wheels today.

[awavey]

`My impression is that there a lot more inexperienced (and often ignorant) cyclists on the UK roads, with the sport enjoying huge growth as it becomes the "new golf" for many.

That leads to, naturally more deaths if there are more riders. It also leads to altercations with drivers and the souring of cyclists' reputations with drivers - not that the reputation in the UK has ever been equivalent to more advanced countries IME.

is that still the case though ? 2012 was nearly a decade ago now I dont think the growth is there as much as its spun,ok I know they keep releasing these figures about record bike sales but there are alot of bikes sitting in sheds & garages or n+1s imo, if anything in my social circle,more have turned to park runs of late than cycling, including ones who were cyclists to begin with and have kind of parked their bikes, my neighbours are club cyclists and barely ride anymore as well.

There were lots of new or reborn riders on the roads last summer I saw, most did have quite poor hazard perception on roads but Ive cant see thats necessarily been linked to these stats, and Im not seeing anything like the same numbers this year yet, and none of the new riders I saw were treating it like golf, unless pitch&put or crazy golf counts.

in practice the roads only quietened March thru to May last year, which coincided with lots of sun & barely a drop of rain in the East at least, June onwards traffic volume felt like it was back to 75% albeit with less of a rush hour/school run mix,

without details on how the fatalities occured Im not sure we can conclude anything.

fwiw would I say its getting more dangerous ?, no not necessarily, would I say motorists are less patient?, definitely, angrier?, certainly, more inclined road rage ? absolutely. and that doesnt make cycling as pleasant as it used to be, but YMMV