How long before 9 speed is obselete?/ choosing a new bike

[gilesjuk]

Why worry? by the time all your 9 speed is worn out you'll be able to replace it with 10 speed at the same price of the 9 speed.

[DaveP]

We're starting to see the demise of 7 speed

I thought so too - but Specialised, for example, have been selling new bikes with 7speed kit this year - that's what the wife got on her Ariel.
I wouldnt have expected a company of that stature to do so unless production of parts was likely to continue for a goodish while.

[uphillbothways]

as for the last bit, i think you'd struggle to find rims or decent tyres for a ertro 597 equipped bike. but that's not been current for decades and is a very, very obscure example.

I couldn't resist:

Schwalbe still make the HS130 tyre, and Kenda have the K23, although I doubt the latter would qualify as 'decent'.

I can't find a current manufacturer of 597 rims, although until quite recently Alex were producing the x-404 in that size. 590 rims are still readily available and would be a perfectly useable replacement.

[Michael R]

Oh well, I have just got a 30 speed

42/32/24x11-36 . The most useful range of ratios I have ever had haivng previously 44/32/32x11-32 Deore and then 48/36/26x11-32 when I could hardly use the big ring

[hubgearfreak]

I couldn't resist:

when i said decent, i didn't mean schwalbe's cheapest. or schwalbes at all. infact i meant contis, panracers or halo.

but it was a ridiculously obscure example, so your point still stands

[Tonyf33]

I've still got a 5 and 6 speed on each of my 2 older bikes and find them fine for pootling about but I'm predominantly shod with 9 speed transmission and got my first taste in 2001. However I much preferred the stepping of my DA 8 speed 12-26 cassette with an earlier stronglight 50/36, it pretty much covered all the bases for me from fast rides to reasonably loaded days out.
I think 8 AND 9 speed will be widely available for 15 years at the very least. As more suckers..er I mean cyclists buy into the latest kit they'll still be mere mortals wanting bikes with components that don't wear through after a couple of years of use. There's also the fact that I can't see a huge amount of progress in the number of gears at the back, whilst in theory you could get a whole heap of sprockets in there the longevity is going to be much shorter (& for the chains too) for the every day user. Would a pro rider ever want/need something like a straight through 11-25 15 speed cassette, after all it's the pro riders that dictate what's fed down the food chain.

[fatboy]

Given that Shimano (I'm assuming that's what you are talking about here) have made the 10-speeds for MTB and road different the choice between 9 and 10 speed depends on what you are trying to do. If you are riding flat bar or are only wanting road gear ratios then 10-speed might be better. If however you are trying to get a decent tourer set-up with say 11-32 cassette with STI levers then 9-speed would be better.

[BigG]

I have recently replaced the 5 and 6 speed freewheels on my two older bikes despite their not being common ratios (14/38 for the 5 speed and 13/34 for the 6 speed). It must be 25 years since these were last made and at least 30 years since they ceased to be the components of choice. A short internet and ebay search was all that was required. I don't think that you need to worry about 9 speed becoming obsolete. I do run a more modern 7 x 3 cassette system on my "new" bike, but I can't say that I find it a big improvement on the older half-step and granny systems. Perhaps getting old makes me more tolerant.

[WrightsW5]

I think the ideal number of gears on a bike is two, 1st for hills and acceleration from standstill, 2nd to take the bike to top speed. Why worry about 9 speed!?

[Mick F]

Where do you live that you can exist on two gears?

[scottg]

Stuff does go obsolete, I can't get new 3 or 4 speed freewheels, important for Osgear and Paris-Roubaix users.
High grade freewheels are dead(Suntour), you can get mediocre to poor stuff only.
Shimano just discontinued a bunch of 8 speed cassettes, Harris Cyclery is no longer offer
custom 8 speed cassettes, 9 speed customs are still available.
Mountain bikes and hybrids are still 9 speed.

[WrightsW5]

Where do you live that you can exist on two gears?

South Birmingham, and I ride mostly fixed or singlespeed, the Birmingham to Stratford ride is nice and hilly!
remember the TdF was originally fixed-only with much longer stages

[meic]

6-speed Shimano kit is still in production, albeit as the very low-end Tourney. Sturmey-Sunrace are still making 5-speed freewheels. You can still buy cottered cranks for goodness sake. I honestly can't think of a situation in which a bicycle would have to be upgraded because of parts going out of production. Can anyone else?

I have had to upgrade my cranksets as I could no longer find 118bcd rings. Which were ubiquitous thirty years ago

[Malaconotus]

I think the ideal number of gears on a bike is two... ...Why worry about 9 speed!?

The ideal number of fully functioning knees at age 60 is also two. I don't believe this is compatible with your view.

[WrightsW5]

I'm not far behind, 49, and I go on 50 mile rides fixed/ss no problem, when I try my first century it'll be fixed or ss.