pwa wrote:PDQ Mobile wrote:pwa wrote:There is no route back to the near consensus we once had, with the great majority accepting continued membership of the EU as inevitable. That has gone for good. If you wish us to stay in the best you should hope for is a long term divided society with a substantial minority eager to leave and voting accordingly. Labour voters are divided about this too, so it is not just a Tory issue.
Unless of course things go so badly in the next decade that near absolute poverty for many, a lack of workers to do the dirty jobs etc lead to more of a social breakdown than is the case at present.
Demographic shift thrown in for good measure.
Then such a consensus may re-establish perhaps?
I can see how that might happen in a decade or so if things play out as badly as you imagine. But at the moment there is a chasm between Leave and Remain with no hope of a coming together. If the UK voted again next year and voted to stay in, we would be even less pro-EU than we were a few years ago, and more unstable as a member.
I think the timing of the UK returning to EU membership will depend a lot on the type of Brexit and relationship we end-up with and how stable the Conservative Party is about that. I'm certain the UK will become a member again, just uncertain over timescales. i.e. if we have a sensible Brexit and remain in the Customs Union & Single Market I suspect a return to membership would be fairly quick (as those excluded from the referendum get to be allowed to vote and the older generation numbers decrease). But the hard Brexit the likes of the rabid Conservative extremists are seeking and a return to EU membership could be a long way off.
Similarly, if the Conservative Party come together around whatever deal is negotiated then we might not lose all trust (most but not all). But if the loons keep on their ideology about how terrible the ECJ is, how we have destroyed our democracy, etc. (basically about how we have not got the ideological Brexit they wanted) then the EU will recognise that the Conservatives will return to power (at some point) bringing with them all their madness and everything will start over again (demands to re-negotiate or leave (again) or break regulations (again), etc.) and there will be no trust.