** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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Debs
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Debs » 14 Mar 2019, 6:23pm

mr bajokoses wrote:Can anyone come up with a combination of choices for a referendum question that will pass through parliament?


Same as the 2016 one, REMAIN or LEAVE

The likelihood of a Remain win justifies keeping the Leave choice as a plain simple [ out vote ] to encompass all Heinz 57 varieties of Brexit. [moderated]

thirdcrank
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby thirdcrank » 14 Mar 2019, 7:38pm

The system didn't cope well with the last referendum and it's hard to see how another would be different. I think anybody assuming a re-run would reverse the result is deluding themselves. We'd have another powerful media campaign and I fancy a main thrust of the Leave case would be "Look how these nasty foreigners have treated our perfectly reasonable request to regain the sovereignty of our Mother-of-Parliaments," etc. reinforced with "Let's just get on with it."

kwackers
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby kwackers » 14 Mar 2019, 7:42pm

More entertaining to watch parliament get on with it.

Can't vote for May's deal.
Can't vote for any other deal.
Can't vote for hard brexit.
Can't vote for retracting article 50.

What exactly are they going to vote for?

PDQ Mobile
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby PDQ Mobile » 14 Mar 2019, 7:46pm

thirdcrank wrote:The system didn't cope well with the last referendum and it's hard to see how another would be different. I think anybody assuming a re-run would reverse the result is deluding themselves. We'd have another powerful media campaign and I fancy a main thrust of the Leave case would be "Look how these nasty foreigners have treated our perfectly reasonable request to regain the sovereignty of our Mother-of-Parliaments," etc. reinforced with "Let's just get on with it."

I am not sure about the "delusion", it's a hard one to call and it could go as much as 60:40 the other way IMV.
Though a closer result would be pretty unsatisfactory.
But all that aside I do feel we are, as a nation, better imformed as to what leaving actually entails and on that basis I would respect the result more than I did the first.
£350 for the NHS, every nation on earth tripping over themselves for a trade deal etc etc.

kwackers
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby kwackers » 14 Mar 2019, 7:49pm

PDQ Mobile wrote:£350 for the NHS, every nation on earth tripping over themselves for a trade deal etc etc.

Don't forget though, brexit has changed. Most brexiters claim they never believed any of that rubbish, they're free thinking individuals who simply don't want to be part of Europe.

(Although I suspect they simply don't want to admit they were wrong. I wonder how many would be secretly relieved if it were cancelled).

mr bajokoses
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mr bajokoses » 14 Mar 2019, 7:59pm

thirdcrank wrote:The system didn't cope well with the last referendum and it's hard to see how another would be different. I think anybody assuming a re-run would reverse the result is deluding themselves. We'd have another powerful media campaign and I fancy a main thrust of the Leave case would be "Look how these nasty foreigners have treated our perfectly reasonable request to regain the sovereignty of our Mother-of-Parliaments," etc. reinforced with "Let's just get on with it."


Yes, and crucially whatever the result, it still needs a functioning government and parliament to enact it.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby PDQ Mobile » 14 Mar 2019, 8:05pm

kwackers wrote:(Although I suspect they simply don't want to admit they were wrong. I wonder how many would be secretly relieved if it were cancelled).


Only one way to find out.

thirdcrank
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby thirdcrank » 14 Mar 2019, 8:10pm

mr bajokoses wrote: ... Yes, and crucially whatever the result, it still needs a functioning government and parliament to enact it.


But that seems to be self-contradicting in that we have a representative democracy ie we elect MP's to make decisions on our behalf. In the event of a decision to leave, rather than carry on as before AKA remain, we'd need to suspend Parliament and somehow select a government - more likely governor - to enact the "Will of the People" as expressed in the referendum. Straight back to the problem of "Leave" meaning so many different things.

mr bajokoses
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mr bajokoses » 14 Mar 2019, 8:30pm

thirdcrank wrote:
mr bajokoses wrote: ... Yes, and crucially whatever the result, it still needs a functioning government and parliament to enact it.


But that seems to be self-contradicting in that we have a representative democracy ie we elect MP's to make decisions on our behalf. In the event of a decision to leave, rather than carry on as before AKA remain, we'd need to suspend Parliament and somehow select a government - more likely governor - to enact the "Will of the People" as expressed in the referendum. Straight back to the problem of "Leave" meaning so many different things.


Exactly. There is a massive risk that another referendum would subvert parliament and prolong the impasse. We could see MPs resigning in large numbers and who would take their place? It hardly bears thinking about.

It's little discussed, but the 2017 GE really diluted the mandate for brexit. Eg in Bury North where I live, leave took the referendum with 54% but the brexit supporting Tory MP was decisively booted out in 2017. The often heard claim that 84% of voters backed brexit by voting Tory or Labour in 2017 is completely bogus.

IMO the position we are in now requires parliament to take the very tough decision to revoke article 50 and follow up with a debate about electoral reform to break up the two main parties.

Maybe this will be forced on them, if the EU turns down our request for an extension as we haven't a clue what we want it for.

Debs
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Debs » 14 Mar 2019, 9:13pm

A General Election would be a completely useless waste of time right now, both front benches of Con & Lab want their own unachievable Brexits. Both leaderships would be tempted to field candidates who support Brexit - crafty selected for brown nose duty.
The electorate wouldn't know any better, most aren't clever enough.
And whatever the result [ another Tory win probably ] we would end up with the same chaos in the HoC arguing about Brexit rubbish instead of elected MPs running the country like they are supposed to.

A confirmation referendum would obviously produce a clear Remain win this time around. That's obvious, the UK has become far more Pro-EU over the past 3 years, and; estimated well over half a million 2016 Leave voters have passed away since, and we have millions of new younger electorate itching to vote their future back. Plus many who voted Leave last time really have changed their minds...

mercalia
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mercalia » 14 Mar 2019, 9:26pm

I wonder if there is a legal agument to the effect that denying a new referendum disenfranchises those who now can vote and even denies them their human rights? It is now getting on 3 years ago? the longer brexit is delayed the larger the issue?

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Cunobelin
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Cunobelin » 14 Mar 2019, 9:33pm

mr bajokoses wrote:
PH wrote:
100%JR wrote:MPs to vote today on giving the pubic a 2nd Referendum vote.........

Not supported by the Peoples Vote campaign or the Labour Party, it'll fail badly and damage the chances of getting a second vote, this from an Independent Group MP, typically not thought through.


A brexit game to amuse us all:

Referendum choices for the ballot paper:
1. No deal? Already rejected by parliament.
2. May's deal? Already rejected twice by parliament.
3. Remain? ERG/DUP won't like that.

Can anyone come up with a combination of choices for a referendum question that will pass through parliament?


I was lied to and misled by a group with personal interests in the chaos....I haves changed my mind now I know the truth

thirdcrank
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby thirdcrank » 14 Mar 2019, 9:44pm

It's by no means obvious to me that another referendum would result in a vote to remain. I suspect that a lot of people who didn't vote last time assumed that the result was a foregone conclusion in favour of Remain. If I'm right then the key might be somehow to motivate those people to vote. I hesitate to describe them as having abstained, which would imply not wanting either of the choices on offer, but there's no obvious missing third choice. It's possible, of course, that people of either persuasion thought that a Remain result was inevitable so mobilizing more of them could still take it either way.

I think that last time, the extent of UK voters' negativity was underestimated ie the tendency to vote against what you don't want, rather than for what you want. Presumably, the members of political parties vote for their own party, but I fancy a lot of the others are motivated by animosity rather than support.

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horizon
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby horizon » 14 Mar 2019, 10:19pm

thirdcrank wrote:It's by no means obvious to me that another referendum would result in a vote to remain.


Sadly, I agree. But AFAIK it's the only reasonable way forward to reverse Brexit. Even then, the cries of "Betrayal!" will use up most of the Daily Mail's ink and paper stocks. Time, however is on Remain's side, glacially slow though the change is.

Even I can see a trend here and I'm no statistician:

http://britainelects.com/polling/europe/
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PS I always wondered why the YHA HQ was called Trevelyan House. :)

PDQ Mobile
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby PDQ Mobile » 14 Mar 2019, 10:49pm

thirdcrank wrote:
I think that last time, the extent of UK voters' negativity was underestimated ie the tendency to vote against what you don't want, rather than for what you want. Presumably, the members of political parties vote for their own party, but I fancy a lot of the others are motivated by animosity rather than support.


Can't disagree with any of the whole post..... And yet, if the self harm becomes palpable, then perhaps at that private moment in the ballot box?
Swindon?
Broughton?

And actually what was so terrible about pre Brexit Britain that it is worth so much division and strife.
After all it is clear that the EU would recognise the dissatifaction of the UK. Or at least that is my view.