Dom puts the boot in...

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Stevek76
Posts: 854
Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by Stevek76 »

Well by most economic assessments brexit will not have helped the inflation risk due to the consequential impact upon growth and productivity.

Increasing debt is an inevitably of a growing economy, the debt is literally the money supply, if there were no debt there'd be no money. The risk is if the money supply exceeds the size of the economy, either because the the economy is damaged (covid temporary, brexit long term) or just because too much has been printed.

The answer to the latter is taxes, the former is rather more problematic, cuts are demonstrably not the solution, that was shown very well a decade ago and in response to a temporary blip like covid would be a very grave mistake. The longer term drain of brexit should be able to be managed out and/or mitigated by the likely resumption of closer ties over time.

Of course much of all that is not going to sit well ideologically with the present government.
thirdcrank
Posts: 31783
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by thirdcrank »

Traditionally, debt attracts interest. For all sorts of reasons, in recent years have been able to keep the interest they pay nailed down. Quite recently there was talk of negative interest rates and they were introduced in some places.

Not everybody is enjoying such low rates: there's an ad frequently aired on daytime TV with a "representative" APR of 99%.

In recent decades we've defied gravity with cheap Chinese and other imports (AKA exporting jobs. ) We've depressed wages by importing labour.

The truly rich tend to benefit from inflation because it increases the value of assets especially land
pete75
Posts: 13781
Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by pete75 »

pwa wrote: 1 Jun 2021, 6:41am
pete75 wrote: 31 May 2021, 11:25am
pwa wrote: 31 May 2021, 5:16am The main selling point of Boris is that he gets things done. Not necessarily well, or wisely, or even legally, but that he gets things done. So revelations and accusations that are about his personal integrity aren't necessarily damaging to his core selling point. Arguably, being perceived as a bit dodgy is not a problem for him. What would harm him would be being seen as having not got stuff done. And that would take time. The pandemic has given him the ultimate excuse for not yet having made progress on his levelling up agenda, but that excuse will fade and he will need to show some results on that over the next year or so. If he doesn't, then his support will slip. Those here who want to see him fall flat on his face will have to exercise a bit more patience.
Such as?
Do you mean, who, here, would like to see Boris fall flat on his face? You perhaps? I'm not a fan either, so I would at least get a little pleasure out of seeing him fail. But he will probably fail by not getting results on key aspects of his agenda, especially the Levelling Up agenda. And at this point in time people will tend to give him some leeway because the pandemic means he has not been able to focus on that yet.

The only thing to judge him on at the moment is his errors in handling of the pandemic and, irritatingly, I don't see any signs of his supporters doing that. It seemed obvious to me, right from the start, that international travel for non-essential reasons ought to stop, and any remaining international travel ought to come with strictly enforced quarantine and testing. If that had happened very early in the pandemic we would have had fewer early cases and more time to prepare. His support seems to be holding up, so a lot of people must not be looking at it as I do.
No I meant what things has he got done.
ClappedOut
Posts: 584
Joined: 30 May 2020, 12:43am

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by ClappedOut »

Tangled Metal wrote: 30 May 2021, 7:36pm Anyone remember the dodgy dossier incident? Does anyone know what the first big lie from a government was? It's certainly not Boris's or Bliar's, so whose government was it?

I don't think it's giving up just that Boris really is seen as the best of a bad bunch. I mean there's only two parties with a hope in hell of forming a government due to the system the GE is run under. You can forget about the rest. That means it's basically a form of beauty c contest between Labour and the Tories. As bad as that is right now that's where we are at. I think Labour lost it after Bliar went. Tories lost it with may and later Boris.

No solution to this from me. I'm just holding my nose and voting because I'm believe we're beholden to vote because of those who struggled to get us the vote. Unless you're from a privileged background whose ancestors always had the vote in which case you're probably like Boris's crowd. I'm just glad I can now vote for a good guy and neither help nor hinder the top two because it's a safe seat held by that good human being. A rare thing and despite voting against my political beliefs it's my last bad option.
Don't waste my time voting as your NEVER get what is promised.
Labour we won't raise income tax, so they raised national insurance instead.
Bliar is a criminal
Boris plays the idiot

After seeing the way people behave, many are spouting rehetoric parrot fashion and guided how high to jump by media.

Prime example social distancing in professional contact sports.

Local moron MP today mask in hand sitting on top of elderly at a community welfare cafe.

So either they are all as safe as they will ever be, were they all tested?

Biscuits and tea worth dying for?

Yesterday on the sea front as we rode past zero social distancing and masks in pockets.

Darwin's evolution doesn't seem to be working too well
Stevek76
Posts: 854
Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by Stevek76 »

thirdcrank wrote: 1 Jun 2021, 5:26pm We've depressed wages by importing labour.
The only evidence I've seen that indicates that importing labour actually suppressed wages was comparing to an impossible hypothetical of somehow having the background economic growth of imported labour without the actual imported labour.

Regarding the government debt, interest rates of new debt remain very low and bonds are long term fixed rates. The overall effective interest rate paid on current debt is actually continuing to fall as old debt with much higher interest rates matures. Only around a quarter of government debt is owned overseas.

Another quarter is owned by the BoE so is effectively just the government owing itself money and paying itself interest on it.
thirdcrank wrote: 1 Jun 2021, 5:26pm The truly rich tend to benefit from inflation because it increases the value of assets especially land
Which is where the taxes come in to pull back in some of the money supply. The extensive wealth hoarded strikes me as the inflationary risk far more than government debt. Obviously in many respects they're two sides of the same coin but the current government and treasury seem to be worryingly leaning towards tackling the wrong side (i.e. more austerity)
pwa
Posts: 13992
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by pwa »

pete75 wrote: 1 Jun 2021, 9:38pm

No I meant what things has he got done.
It is his image, his selling point, so I wait to see whether it is correct. I took no interest in what he did with Greater London. But as PM he got Brexit done, then the pandemic pushed everything else down the priority list. Yes, I know getting Brexit done isn't going to make you approve of him, but he did what May couldn't or wouldn't, and he did it quickly. But as I say, getting stuff done is not always the same as getting it done well, and my own feeling about him is that he will make impulsive decisions where a bit more thought would lead to a better decision.
thirdcrank
Posts: 31783
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by thirdcrank »

On the matter of quantative easing / printing money which isn't now synonymous with borrowing it in any traditional sense, there's presumably a spectrum between not doing it at all and doing it without any limit whatsoever.

So, the question is how much new money is produced. QE has now been increasing for well over a decade and has been steadily ramping up and every hint of stopping, never mind reversing the policy has risked financial trouble. During the pandemic, there's been even more new money created: I think the welfare spending in the last year is unprecedented and with understandable reasons, but this seems unlikely to be without consequences. Now, all I'm really saying is that neither Boris Johnson nor his BoE Governor have much idea what they will be. There's no obvious plan to set the extent of QE. ie It's heading out of control.

On importing labour to depress wages, a current example seems to be in the leisure industry, where, in spite of pubs etc going bust, there's reported to be a struggle to recruit staff.

Anyway, all I'm saying is that inflation is something that might topple Boris Johnson. So far, the effects have been blurred. A pay freeze with low inflation is a disguised pay cut, especially if the calculation of inflation is switched. eg RPI to CPI. There's a suggestion that some prices have risen much more quickly, with a greater impact on those with a low income. Perhaps money can be printed without consequence and I'm completely wrong. Put me down for hotels on Park Lane and Mayfair.
===========================================================================

PS I see Al's chum Tim is lobbyng for more migrant labour

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... -shortage/

=============================================================================

PPS
Mr Martin later told the BBC the comment has been taken out of context.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57314682
pete75
Posts: 13781
Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by pete75 »

pwa wrote: 2 Jun 2021, 5:31am
pete75 wrote: 1 Jun 2021, 9:38pm

No I meant what things has he got done.
It is his image, his selling point, so I wait to see whether it is correct. I took no interest in what he did with Greater London. But as PM he got Brexit done, then the pandemic pushed everything else down the priority list. Yes, I know getting Brexit done isn't going to make you approve of him, but he did what May couldn't or wouldn't, and he did it quickly. But as I say, getting stuff done is not always the same as getting it done well, and my own feeling about him is that he will make impulsive decisions where a bit more thought would lead to a better decision.
He didn't get Brexit done. May would have got it done had not Johnson and his cronies voted against her negotiated agreement which was better than Johnson's particularly regarding Northern Ireland. we were due to finally leave on 31st December 2020 regardless of whether Johnson negotiated an agreement or not.
Psamathe
Posts: 12883
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by Psamathe »

pete75 wrote: 11 Jun 2021, 2:54pm
pwa wrote: 2 Jun 2021, 5:31am
pete75 wrote: 1 Jun 2021, 9:38pm

No I meant what things has he got done.
It is his image, his selling point, so I wait to see whether it is correct. I took no interest in what he did with Greater London. But as PM he got Brexit done, then the pandemic pushed everything else down the priority list. Yes, I know getting Brexit done isn't going to make you approve of him, but he did what May couldn't or wouldn't, and he did it quickly. But as I say, getting stuff done is not always the same as getting it done well, and my own feeling about him is that he will make impulsive decisions where a bit more thought would lead to a better decision.
He didn't get Brexit done. May would have got it done had not Johnson and his cronies voted against her negotiated agreement which was better than Johnson's particularly regarding Northern Ireland. we were due to finally leave on 31st December 2020 regardless of whether Johnson negotiated an agreement or not.
And having used the Select Committee for advertising the Government secrets he possesses, phase 2 of turning them into £££ - you can subscribe to those secrets being trickled out for just £10 per month!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dominic-cummings-newsletter-code-conduct-b1864153.html wrote:...
Dominic Cummings may be in breach of the official code of conduct for special advisers if he releases government information in his new newsletter, Downing Street has suggested.

Boris Johnson’s former top aide has launched a £10-a-month subscriber service on Substack.
...
Subscribers have been told they can pay £100 annually or £10 monthly. Those who pay £200 a year will have "founding member" status.
...
(although he is promising some titbits for free "In a post he said he would reveal information on the battle to tackle the coronavirus pandemic for free, alongside some details of his time inside Downing Street.")

Useful things these Parliamentary Select Committees - free advertising.

Ian
merseymouth
Posts: 2277
Joined: 23 Jan 2011, 11:16am

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by merseymouth »

Afternoon, Well now, The Specsavers advert man has now set out another part of his defective mental workings? He now allows the hoi polloi to get the inside track on his tweeting, subscribe to his get rich painfully scheme, a snip at £10 per month, to lay bare all the skeletons he imagines are in No 10's closets!
Further proof if it were needed that characters like Walter Mitty exist in real life. A genuine sh*t of the first order! MM
Oldjohnw
Posts: 6568
Joined: 16 Oct 2018, 4:23am
Location: Northumberland

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by Oldjohnw »

merseymouth wrote: 11 Jun 2021, 4:24pm Afternoon, Well now, The Specsavers advert man has now set out another part of his defective mental workings? He now allows the hoi polloi to get the inside track on his tweeting, subscribe to his get rich painfully scheme, a snip at £10 per month, to lay bare all the skeletons he imagines are in No 10's closets!
Further proof if it were needed that characters like Walter Mitty exist in real life. A genuine sh*t of the first order! MM
Oh there are plenty of skeletons in Downing Street. And plenty in Mr Cummings’ cupboard, too. The court is gradually unearthing them through the offices of The Good Law Project. A number of S of S have already been found to have acted unlawfully. The government as a whole has. Cummings is in contempt of parliament. An unbelievably shady bunch. Incompetence is not unusual with government. Brazen corruption is much more alarming.

https://goodlawproject.org/
John
pete75
Posts: 13781
Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by pete75 »

thirdcrank wrote: 2 Jun 2021, 6:01am On the matter of quantative easing / printing money which isn't now synonymous with borrowing it in any traditional sense, there's presumably a spectrum between not doing it at all and doing it without any limit whatsoever.

So, the question is how much new money is produced. QE has now been increasing for well over a decade and has been steadily ramping up and every hint of stopping, never mind reversing the policy has risked financial trouble. During the pandemic, there's been even more new money created: I think the welfare spending in the last year is unprecedented and with understandable reasons, but this seems unlikely to be without consequences. Now, all I'm really saying is that neither Boris Johnson nor his BoE Governor have much idea what they will be. There's no obvious plan to set the extent of QE. ie It's heading out of control.

On importing labour to depress wages, a current example seems to be in the leisure industry, where, in spite of pubs etc going bust, there's reported to be a struggle to recruit staff.

Anyway, all I'm saying is that inflation is something that might topple Boris Johnson. So far, the effects have been blurred. A pay freeze with low inflation is a disguised pay cut, especially if the calculation of inflation is switched. eg RPI to CPI. There's a suggestion that some prices have risen much more quickly, with a greater impact on those with a low income. Perhaps money can be printed without consequence and I'm completely wrong. Put me down for hotels on Park Lane and Mayfair.
===========================================================================

PS I see Al's chum Tim is lobbyng for more migrant labour

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... -shortage/

=============================================================================

PPS
Mr Martin later told the BBC the comment has been taken out of context.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57314682
Near where I live there's a meat processing plant that employs about 500 people mainly migrants from Poland and the Baltic nations. The more skilled jobs like butchery pay £15 an hour so, with a ten hour day, earnings are about £750 a week. Unskilled jobs like packing pay £10 an hour so £500 a week. Is this what you mean by that statement. Ok these are probably wages few who post here would be prepared to accept but compared to a lot of jobs it's decent pay. The company also has a reasonable pension scheme, a highly subsidised canteen and other employee benefits include 34 days leave a year.
thirdcrank
Posts: 31783
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by thirdcrank »

... Is this what you mean by that statement. ...
I don't think of meat processing as part of the leisure industry. OTOH, the approach of employing people from the parts of the world where wage rates are typically lower than they are here is nothing new.
pete75
Posts: 13781
Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by pete75 »

The statement I was referring to is one you've made twice about importing labour to depress wages. Wouldn't this apply to any industry and not just the so called leisure industry?

What surprises me is that no one from so called "left behind" places moved to take up the jobs which attracted these migrants. It's a lot easier to move from somewhere like Doncaster, Grimsby or Hull to work in South Lincs than from Vilnius or Katowice. I suppose it's also a lot easier to sit on your buttock watching day time TV and moaning about foreigners taking all the jobs than actually working.
thirdcrank
Posts: 31783
Joined: 9 Jan 2007, 2:44pm

Re: Dom puts the boot in...

Post by thirdcrank »

In that post I was referring to the leisure industry because that's where I've seen recent evidence - mainly anecdotal - of it happening just now. Then there were the news items about Tim which seemed to confirm this.

In normal times - before the new normal - we had a small number of favourite pubs, and the majority seem to be advertising for new staff. I'm not in the job hunt myself - and I'd not be up to that sort of work if I were - but I've become aware of the ads when I've been checking online to see what different places have been doing about re-opening. One think that surprised me was that with so many boozers going out of business, the people losing their jobs didn't exceed the vacancies. By coincidence, we were in a local village pub which is running ads for a chef and other staff and we got talking to a couple at a nearby socially-distanced table. Their son is a pub chef and has recently been pestered to change jobs by several different places.
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