EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

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horizon
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EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby horizon » 28 Apr 2016, 11:15am

I've been very unwilling to predict or place a bet on the referendum outcome - it really is very close. But I'm now moving to the conclusion that either Leave will win or it will drag votes to it that might otherwise have been Remain votes so making the result closer even if we vote to stay in.

My conclusion is based on the very simple idea that the Remain campaign have chosen the wrong word - an easy thing to do. People are lazy. Leave is a simple, mono-syllabic word that people can grasp and go along with. If you're not happy, then leave. "Go" would have been even better but the Leave campaign needn't worry as they are well ahead of the, yes, unbelievably named Remain campaign (as in remains ...). So, two syllables, neither particularly sharp. So given a complex and uncertain choice, people vote with their gut and that means Leave.

So what happened to "stay"? This one word would have guaranteed a Remain victory. It's shorter than leave by about 20% and it's a command word (as in dog training) so you do as you are told - perfect. I haven't been able to find out why it wasn't used. The Leave campaign even have Brexit on their side, a good punchy word; what is the equivalent - Bremain?

So I'm off to the betting shop. I reckon a Leave win of about 1% - it should have been a Remain victory of about 5%. And all because of one little word - stay!
Last edited by horizon on 28 Apr 2016, 12:08pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby pwa » 28 Apr 2016, 11:24am

I'm going to vote as directed by my 17 year old daughter, who has her own opinions on things.

If I were to vote in line with my own views I would vote to leave because I think our overpopulated country will become increasingly crowded if we remain in the EU.

But I expect the referendum will go the way of the remain campaign. The French and German leaders have not yet spoken, and I expect them to threaten us with unacceptable trading terms should we leave. I think it will be bluff, but i also think it will work. 60 /40 to stay in, at a guess.

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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby Mick F » 28 Apr 2016, 11:31am

IN or OUT would have been better.

At this present moment, we are in limbo. Basically, the arguments to go either way are in a balanced situation. The world doesn't know which way the see-saw will settle. At this present moment, we are neither in nor out. The future isn't predictable or known.

The question should be IN? or OUT?

If the result is a 49%/51% split, the winning side will be happy, but the losing side will be very very VERY grumpy indeed.
Far better to have a decisive result than a fine margin.


.................. but I agree with you. "Remain" is a poor choice of word.
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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby Psamathe » 28 Apr 2016, 11:39am

I think other factors are beginning to affect how people will vote.

For example, given what Cameron/Hunt are doing to the NHS. Voting "Leave" is a great opportunity to give Cameron a proverbial "bloody nose" i.e. to get rid of him and make his legacy a disaster. And at the same time neuter the Conservative government for the remainder of their term - as when Boris ten takes over and appoints all his "Leave mates" can you see any of the "Remain" camp supporting a "Leave" government (basically they will have a technical majority but insufficient supporting MPs to get anything through). The Conservatives will self-destruct.

But if "Remain" wins the referendum, all those "Leave" Conservatives will come cringing back to Dave, talk about "healthy robust debate" and Dave is weak enough that it will be "all is forgiven "'cos I get to keep my job" and IDS will be back in DWP cutting benefits for the vulnerable.

I think these sorts of unrelated things will start to play their part. e.g. were Cameron to sack Hunt, that would indirectly help the remain campaign.

Ian

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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby meic » 28 Apr 2016, 11:42am

My conclusion is based on the very simple idea that the Remain campaign have chosen the wrong word - an easy thing to do. People are lazy. Leave is a simple, mono-syllabic word that people can grasp and go along with. If you're not happy, then leave. "Go" would have been even better but the Leave campaign needn't worry as they are well ahead of the, yes, unbelievably named Remain campaign (as in remains ...). So, two syllables, neither particularly sharp. So given a complex and uncertain choice, people vote with their gut and that means Leave.


This is setting a very low bar for the intellect of the electorate. Not saying that you are wrong though! :mrgreen:

I heard a Tory "leave" MP going on about how all this EU regulation was strangling small businesses and that big business had a complete hold over the decisions made in Brussels. All well and good BUT the implied assertion that leaving will mean the regulations will be relaxed and a sympathetic government in Westminster will take the side of small business against the corporations is clearly false.
The Tory "remain" group on the other hand keep saying that you have to vote "remain" inorder to protect yourselves from what they the Tory Party would do to you if we left!!

There is a temptation to vote with your political bias according to the present EU and UK government. In four, eight, twelve years time that could be reversed with an EU government having moved right and a UK one having moved left.
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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby Vorpal » 28 Apr 2016, 11:53am

Psamathe wrote:For example, given what Cameron/Hunt are doing to the NHS. Voting "Leave" is a great opportunity to give Cameron a proverbial "bloody nose" i.e. to get rid of him and make his legacy a disaster.

That's a stupid reason to vote to leave the EU.

I gave my opinion on the previous thread; I think UK businesses will lose significant competitive advantage if the UK leaves the EU. Frankly, though, I'm more worried about my own status, as I live & work in Norway as a British citizen. I doubt they will kick us all out (there are many Brits here), but it's unlikely to get easier to deal with every day things here. Even if they don't start to require visas, they may change how public benefits apply.
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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby Psamathe » 28 Apr 2016, 12:20pm

Vorpal wrote:
Psamathe wrote:For example, given what Cameron/Hunt are doing to the NHS. Voting "Leave" is a great opportunity to give Cameron a proverbial "bloody nose" i.e. to get rid of him and make his legacy a disaster.

That's a stupid reason to vote to leave the EU.

I agree. But many thought the UK referendum on electoral reform failed because the electorate were more motivated by giving Clegg a "bloody nose". I'm not suggesting it would be a deciding factor, but it may sway people towards "leave".

You could look on it the other way and ask if we really want a government run by Buffon, Gove and IDS?

Vorpal wrote:I gave my opinion on the previous thread; I think UK businesses will lose significant competitive advantage if the UK leaves the EU. Frankly, though, I'm more worried about my own status, as I live & work in Norway as a British citizen. I doubt they will kick us all out (there are many Brits here), but it's unlikely to get easier to deal with every day things here. Even if they don't start to require visas, they may change how public benefits apply.


I don't know enough about Norway, but were the UK to leave I'm sure things would get difficult for many expats. When many EU countries are facing issues over the costs of their benefits systems, costs of their health systems, etc. should the UK decide to leave because I does not want to play its part and wants to avoid those costs, so many EU countries will react in a similar manner and decide on a reciprocity basis (UK don't want out citizens and wont pay for them, then we wont either). I know from when I lived in France that they already have a very strict attitude to providing health cover to UK citizens (absolute EU minimum provided - which for some (incl me after their changes mean no health cover in France nor in the UK!).

Also, were EU to leave, the UK "leave politicians" keep rabbiting on about how Germany would want to sell us their cars, etc. but they overlook that all countries have to agree any trade deal and that different countries would be seeking different things. For example, Spain would not want the UK to have an "easy time" because that would only encourage their own euro-sceptic movement so they will be challenging a lot and delaying a lot to "make it hurt". Other eastern countries might be less interested in trade but are more interested in freedom of movement so they would require freedom of movement for any EU trade deal. So it will hurt and there will be a long period of uncertainty so I suspect a lot of expats will be uncertain of their status during that time.

Ian

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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby pwa » 28 Apr 2016, 12:35pm

Countries like Spain cannot afford to be awkward about trade. They need it to continue uninterrupted, just as we do. Look how much of you fruit and veg comes from Spain. Leave or stay, trade will have to be kept as smooth as possible, and EU leaders will have to minimise problems. The same applies to medical provision. Does anyone seriously think that Polish people living in the UK will be denied hospital treatment when they need it? I don't.

On the choice of language (In / Out, Leave / Stay, etc) I don't think it matters. And as the leaders of the main parties are all advocating Remain, I don't see party politics clouding the issue too much.

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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby horizon » 28 Apr 2016, 1:07pm

pwa wrote:
On the choice of language (In / Out, Leave / Stay, etc) I don't think it matters.


It does to me - I'm about to go down to the bookies!
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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby Psamathe » 28 Apr 2016, 1:28pm

pwa wrote:The same applies to medical provision. Does anyone seriously think that Polish people living in the UK will be denied hospital treatment when they need it? I don't.

I was in France (under Sarkozy's changes). As I was resident (and paying tax) in France I was not eligible for treatment under the NHS (had to wait until I'be been back in the UK for 6 months before I could get treatment and even then I had to have a special interview at the hospital before my 1st consultant visit and produce proof of UK residency e.g. Council Tax bills, etc). But in France I was also suddenly not eligible for treatment under the French Healthcare system. Fortunately my own treatment was not urgent and I could wait. When the French changes were implemented there was one British cancer patient resident in France and his cancer treatment was stopped. In the end he returned to the UK and UK made an exception and continued his treatment.

And Sarkozy's changes were (eventually) ok under EU rules (UK MEP were having big arguments through the EU with Sarkozy so he had to "tweak" his changes to bring them into-line with EU rules).

It's too easy to assume what wont happen but it has and recently as well.

pwa wrote:Countries like Spain cannot afford to be awkward about trade. They need it to continue uninterrupted, just as we do. Look how much of you fruit and veg comes from Spain. Leave or stay, trade will have to be kept as smooth as possible, and EU leaders will have to minimise problems....

But you have to balance the cost of e.g. Spain of strengthening their own "leave campaigns". Even with no trade agreement we can still trade. so Spain can still export to us and we can still export to Spain. It's just the there will be extra tax (so Spanish goods will cost us a bit more). and UK goods exported to Spain will cost the Spanish a bit more.

And there are still the eastern EU countries for whom freedom of movement is far more valuable that a free trade deal so does anybody really think they are going to agree to a deal that is in Germany's interest but not their own interest ? I cannot see it being as fast, cheap and easy as the "Leave" campaign suggest (and do you really trust people like Boris, Gove and IDS ?).

Ian

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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby meic » 28 Apr 2016, 1:37pm

It's just the there will be extra tax (so Spanish goods will cost us a bit more). and UK goods exported to Spain will cost the Spanish a bit more.


Excellent news for our (hard pressed, hard working) farming community. Just as the plummeting house prices on our departure will be good news for anybody hoping to get into house ownership.
The more that the remain side say, the more that they make me reconsider and want to vote to leave after all.
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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby Vorpal » 28 Apr 2016, 1:42pm

pwa wrote: The same applies to medical provision. Does anyone seriously think that Polish people living in the UK will be denied hospital treatment when they need it? I don't.

No, but they can certainly charge them for it, or make it impractical for anything except emergency care. When people attend a surgery or A&E , and they do not have an NHS number, they are typically charged for the service. Whilst there are some exception to that, I can imagine that if the UK leaves the EU, the government could simply extend the fees to countries that were previously exempt by way of EU legislation. Otherwise, they will have to put in place some sort of exchange agreement, or join the EEA, both of which could take some time to negotiate.
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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby Vorpal » 28 Apr 2016, 1:49pm

meic wrote:
It's just the there will be extra tax (so Spanish goods will cost us a bit more). and UK goods exported to Spain will cost the Spanish a bit more.


Excellent news for our (hard pressed, hard working) farming community. Just as the plummeting house prices on our departure will be good news for anybody hoping to get into house ownership.
The more that the remain side say, the more that they make me reconsider and want to vote to leave after all.

I doubt the plummeting house prices, frankly. If the UK leaves the EU; and if that results in in significant migration, there are likely to be more Brits returning home than other Europeans leaving. Even if some areas are impacted because of a particularly high number of citizens from other European countries who return to their homelands, the impact is likely to be limited to very small areas.
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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby meic » 28 Apr 2016, 1:57pm

I dont believe any of what either side are saying.
I am just pointing out that in their desperation to come out with something they are saying anything and they have gone further down the line of arguments than the rest of us have followed. May be that those arguing are not in touch with the common voter or that I am not in touch with the common voter, or the common voter isnt in touch with the common voter. :lol:

So saying there will be trade barriers, drops in house prices and Polish citizens left to die in hospital doorways will not be seen as bad things by a lot of voters.
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Re: EU referendum: stay or remain? Leave or stay?

Postby Psamathe » 28 Apr 2016, 2:09pm

Vorpal wrote:
pwa wrote: The same applies to medical provision. Does anyone seriously think that Polish people living in the UK will be denied hospital treatment when they need it? I don't.

No, but they can certainly charge them for it, or make it impractical for anything except emergency care. When people attend a surgery or A&E , and they do not have an NHS number, they are typically charged for the service. Whilst there are some exception to that, I can imagine that if the UK leaves the EU, the government could simply extend the fees to countries that were previously exempt by way of EU legislation. Otherwise, they will have to put in place some sort of exchange agreement, or join the EEA, both of which could take some time to negotiate.

When I moved to France I was covered under the French healthcare system for 3 years only because the UK government agreed to pay the French for any treatment I needed (E106 cover which is to a max of 3 years). I was then covered under the French healthcare system for a brief time until Sarkozy got fed-up with Brits and the high cost of French Healthcare and he introduced restrictions meaning I was not covered under the French Healthcare (atall). So treatment I needed would have been charged for and I'd have to pay because there was no private health insurance in France (only top-up insurance) and being a French resident I was not covered by the UK NHS.

Had I been of UK retirement age then UK government would have picked-up paying the French for my treatments but as it was I was put in complete limbo - no health cover from anybody anywhere in the world. Yet I was a British citizen living and resident in France, paying French (and UK) tax, social charges, etc. - yet no healthcare.

So I was in the position that people don't think would happen to Does anyone seriously think that Polish people living in the UK will be denied hospital treatment? Reciprocal agreements are not particularly good even when we are part of the EU, but if we leave ...

Ian
Last edited by Psamathe on 28 Apr 2016, 4:26pm, edited 2 times in total.