Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

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53x13
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Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby 53x13 » 15 Jul 2016, 9:17am

Today big Theresa heads north over the border to plead for a 'special union' between the two countries, given that Scotland voted 68%/32% In/Out in the EU referendum Sturgeon has said this is the 'Constitional trigger' for a second Scottish referendum.

Would she win it?

What then for a divided UK, out of Europe, casually eaten away by factionism and forgotten on the international stage (No Scotland = no oil and gas, and nowhere to keep the nuclear deterrent).

http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/146207 ... _Scotland/

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby [XAP]Bob » 15 Jul 2016, 9:34am

If they do - I'll be seriously considering emigrating...
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mercalia
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby mercalia » 15 Jul 2016, 9:37am

I understand when she went to visit the EU recently, Sturgeon got nothing should Scotland separate from the UK, that Scotland would have to join the EU as a new nation and not slip in under the old UK umbrella. And there is the price of oil and also they wouldnt be able to use the £ any more. so it wont be happening any time soon?

And if Brexit succeeds then there will be a pull to stay in the UK? time is maybe not on Sturgeon's side?

53x13
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby 53x13 » 15 Jul 2016, 9:43am

mercalia wrote:I understand when she went to visit the EU recently, Sturgeon got nothing should Scotland separate from the UK, that Scotland would have to join the EU as a new nation and not slip in under the old UK umbrella. And there is the price of oil and also they wouldnt be able to use the £ any more. so it wont be happening any time soon?


They got a 'we'll think about IT'. Which is what you would expect in the current fractious climate. Imo they probably would co-opt Scotland back into the EU as there's a good argument that they were 'dragged' out of the EU by the rest of the UK.

Sturgeon won't call another referendum (it's her constitutional right to do so) until the conditions are perfect. Oil goes up and down like a rusty flag, so it's just a waiting game.

The pound is likely to be in trouble for a VERY long time, so adoption of the Euro would be a sharp move, and likely a vote winner for Scottish independence.

All Sturgeon has to do is wait. If May cocks up a sensible Brexit strategy (there's every chance that Article 50 won't be put in play before anther GE) it'll make an OUT vote very easy for Sturgeon.

Brexit is the golden egg for Sturgeon, she couldn't have wished for a better exit scenario.

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al_yrpal
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby al_yrpal » 15 Jul 2016, 9:48am

[XAP]Bob wrote:If they do - I'll be seriously considering emigrating...


Thats what every single one of my Scottish pals says too. All well educated people. Is this like the EU referendum with the 'have nots' making up the majority of the 'leavers'?

Al
Last edited by al_yrpal on 15 Jul 2016, 10:10am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby pwa » 15 Jul 2016, 9:50am

I don't care if Scotland leaves the UK. It's up to them, and I wish them well whatever they do. But when the UK leaves the EU Scotland will leave too. They can rejoin in their own right at a later date. If I were living in Scotland I would regard the prospect of being a remote outpost of the EU with some concern. I'm not sure I would feel secure with that. I don't see it as an easy sell for the SNP, and they won't be in a rush to go for a second referendum unless they feel confident of winning.

mercalia
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby mercalia » 15 Jul 2016, 9:58am

53x13 wrote:
mercalia wrote:I understand when she went to visit the EU recently, Sturgeon got nothing should Scotland separate from the UK, that Scotland would have to join the EU as a new nation and not slip in under the old UK umbrella. And there is the price of oil and also they wouldnt be able to use the £ any more. so it wont be happening any time soon?


They got a 'we'll think about IT'. Which is what you would expect in the current fractious climate. Imo they probably would co-opt Scotland back into the EU as there's a good argument that they were 'dragged' out of the EU by the rest of the UK.
......


well has to be unanimous ? and there is Spain with its own regions that want to leave Spain.....

53x13
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby 53x13 » 15 Jul 2016, 10:04am

mercalia wrote:
53x13 wrote:
mercalia wrote:I understand when she went to visit the EU recently, Sturgeon got nothing should Scotland separate from the UK, that Scotland would have to join the EU as a new nation and not slip in under the old UK umbrella. And there is the price of oil and also they wouldnt be able to use the £ any more. so it wont be happening any time soon?


They got a 'we'll think about IT'. Which is what you would expect in the current fractious climate. Imo they probably would co-opt Scotland back into the EU as there's a good argument that they were 'dragged' out of the EU by the rest of the UK.
......


well has to be unanimous ? and there is Spain with its own regions that want to leave Spain.....


There's a strong argument that Scotland did not vote to leave the EU (68/32) and therefore they are being removed from the bosom of the EU 'by force'.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Scotland co-opted back into the EU immediately upon an OUT vote from the UK.

As we've seen explicitly in the past few weeks, this is a fast moving situation and just about ANYTHING is possible. You can't rule anything out, especially if the Brexit negotiatons go badly, (with Boris as head of the FO, that's likely) I think the EU would go to any lengths to give the rUK a good boot in the teeth, regardless of consequences.

If Scotland went, the complete dissolution of the UK would be an inevitable.

53x13
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby 53x13 » 15 Jul 2016, 10:05am

[XAP]Bob wrote:If they do - I'll be seriously considering emigrating...


You mean to Scotland!? Me too. I'm just over the border.

mercalia
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby mercalia » 15 Jul 2016, 10:48am

53x13 wrote:
mercalia wrote:
53x13 wrote:
They got a 'we'll think about IT'. Which is what you would expect in the current fractious climate. Imo they probably would co-opt Scotland back into the EU as there's a good argument that they were 'dragged' out of the EU by the rest of the UK.
......


well has to be unanimous ? and there is Spain with its own regions that want to leave Spain.....


There's a strong argument that Scotland did not vote to leave the EU (68/32) and therefore they are being removed from the bosom of the EU 'by force'.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Scotland co-opted back into the EU immediately upon an OUT vote from the UK.

......



well its the same argument that says that Brexit cannot happen as it takes away EU citizenship that any UK passport holder has? The retort is that the UK is a gateway to that membership and it dont stand on its own, and as such the UK is the gateway to the EU - Scotland has no right per se to membership of the EU. In fact you might argue that as a minority community they joined the EU on the shirt tail ( thats the expression? some time these days I forget the right words ) of England who took them in. As for removing them from the EU by force, what does that amount to? just that they voted the other way and if your argument held then all those who lost the vote in any election general or otherwise could refuse to accept it and not cooperate with the result and demand things to be otherwise. The Scots played the game ( took part in the ref. )and they are expected to abide by the rules and the result, rather than shout foul? They of course like every one expected it to be a Remain result.

as for co-opting, you ignored what I said about Spain and its regions - you know very well how Spain wont agree to anything that might add ammunition to the separtists in Spain - The extreme obsession with sovereignty is characteristic of Spain eg Gibraltar
Last edited by mercalia on 15 Jul 2016, 11:08am, edited 8 times in total.

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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby [XAP]Bob » 15 Jul 2016, 10:54am

53x13 wrote:
[XAP]Bob wrote:If they do - I'll be seriously considering emigrating...


You mean to Scotland!? Me too. I'm just over the border.


I do - even though I'm nowhere near the border...
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georgew
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby georgew » 15 Jul 2016, 11:13am

[XAP]Bob wrote:If they do - I'll be seriously considering emigrating...



Don't worry....if Scotland does go independent you can be assured of a warm welcome.

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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby JimL » 15 Jul 2016, 11:24am

53x13 wrote:
mercalia wrote:
53x13 wrote:
They got a 'we'll think about IT'. Which is what you would expect in the current fractious climate. Imo they probably would co-opt Scotland back into the EU as there's a good argument that they were 'dragged' out of the EU by the rest of the UK.
......


well has to be unanimous ? and there is Spain with its own regions that want to leave Spain.....


There's a strong argument that Scotland did not vote to leave the EU (68/32) and therefore they are being removed from the bosom of the EU 'by force'.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Scotland co-opted back into the EU immediately upon an OUT vote from the UK.

As we've seen explicitly in the past few weeks, this is a fast moving situation and just about ANYTHING is possible. You can't rule anything out, especially if the Brexit negotiatons go badly, (with Boris as head of the FO, that's likely) I think the EU would go to any lengths to give the rUK a good boot in the teeth, regardless of consequences.

If Scotland went, the complete dissolution of the UK would be an inevitable.


If the 68/32 referred to above is meant to be the percentage vote in Scotland for remainining in the EU then you are wrong. The percentage vote was 62/38.

Nearly 40% of people in Scotland voted to leave the EU without any real campaign and almost 100% of elected politicians in favour of remaning. Food for thought for elected politicians

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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby Elizabeth_S » 15 Jul 2016, 11:25am

All the people I know that voted to stay in the UK in the independence referendum, voted to remain in the EU referendum, and now say they will vote leave if there is a new Scotland out referendum if they can rejoin the EU and they will even accept the euro. I think it would be 62:38 to leave next time. Sturgeon has a strong hand right now, and she's playing it very canny.

mercalia
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby mercalia » 15 Jul 2016, 11:34am

Elizabeth_S wrote:All the people I know that voted to stay in the UK in the independence referendum, voted to remain in the EU referendum, and now say they will vote leave if there is a new Scotland out referendum if they can rejoin the EU and they will even accept the euro. I think it would be 62:38 to leave next time. Sturgeon has a strong hand right now, and she's playing it very canny.


she likes to make out she has strong hand but conditions count against it

whats really puzzling is that they want to be part of a non democratic EU that they have been only part of for 40 or so years that is racked with failure and corruption & stupidity & vested interests, yet not part of the UK that has been successfully working for 200 years which has given them self govt?!? I think its really some hate the English - some people I know who have moved there seem to get that impression
Last edited by mercalia on 15 Jul 2016, 11:52am, edited 7 times in total.