Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

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53x13
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby 53x13 » 15 Jul 2016, 10:02pm

al_yrpal wrote:Anyway, it would be vetoed by Spain, they have said as much. Scotland voted decisively to remain a member of the UK. Thats how it stands and plenty of Scots want it to remain that way. The 'Nasty Party' has departed after sorting out Gordons socialist mess. The UK needs to come together to eliminate poverty, raise up those struggling and move forward.

Al


Look. In a couple of weeks you're going to get tired of all this triumphalism and realise what you've done. Brexit has accelerated the break up of the UK by about 2 years. If freedom of movement isn't accepted wholesale by what's left of the UK, then market forces will see what's left of London finance and dealing 'volte face' across the channel to Paris, Madrid, Prague, wherever. As long as they can trade freely. Which will be impossible here.

So what does the rUK live on after that? No oil, no gas, no manufacturing that doesn't rely on highly tariffed imports, and no financial industry... Southern Ireland, at best

Basket case.

My wife's Scottish. I'll be over the border before they pull up the drawbridge.

If the past three weeks have taught the Brexiters anything it should be this:

Imagine the most bizarre scenario you can, imagine it might happen, because it will. Boris Johnson, Foreign Minister...

Anything can happen now, everything is up for grabs, and all the certainties you hold so dear are going to be assaulted in ways you never thought possible.
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sjs
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby sjs » 15 Jul 2016, 10:16pm

georgew wrote:
You obviously live in a different universe from myself and I suspect from the many thousands of vulnerable people who have suffered from Cameron's austerity policies. You think that the person responsible for the EU referendum, which may cause as yet unknown hardships to many ordinary people and may yet cause the break-up of the UK, should be applauded upon leaving his position.....I don't. His irresponsibility as a Prime Minister in launching Brexit will be recorded in history as will the condemnation of his austerity policies by the UN as being a breach of international human right obligations.....but hey...let's give him a clap and not be a spoilsport. Why even a little curtsey might be appropriate.


+1

A prime minister who voluntarily organised a referendum, in order to score points against another wing of his own party and against UKIP, while holding the apparently sincere view that one of the two possible outcomes would be catastrophic, and then lost, must surely be considered the most incompetent and reckless in living memory.

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al_yrpal
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby al_yrpal » 15 Jul 2016, 10:29pm

Its all calm here, you guys do inhabit another planet :wink:

Al
Touring on a bicycle is a great way to explore and appreciate the countryside and towns you pass through. Make a difference...

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georgew
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby georgew » 15 Jul 2016, 10:36pm

blackbike wrote:I'm not sure leaving the UK would mean Scotland could get back into the EU.

Having just lost one of it biggest cash contributors, the UK, would the EU want to take back an ex-UK country which would not be a net contributor to the Brussels, but a drain on its finances?

I doubt it.

Other countries which are net recipients of EU money would probably veto Scotland's membership, fearing that Scotland would simply reduce the money they get from the reduced number of net contributors.



I dare say that you're right. :roll:

"A new poll has shown support for Scotland's place in the EU across the Continent. #ScoEU"

https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/75258 ... 67739bd962

rualexander
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby rualexander » 15 Jul 2016, 11:16pm

blackbike wrote:I'm not sure leaving the UK would mean Scotland could get back into the EU.

Having just lost one of it biggest cash contributors, the UK, would the EU want to take back an ex-UK country which would not be a net contributor to the Brussels, but a drain on its finances?

I doubt it.

Other countries which are net recipients of EU money would probably veto Scotland's membership, fearing that Scotland would simply reduce the money they get from the reduced number of net contributors.


What makes you think that an independent Scotland would not be a net contributor to the EU finances?
Scotland is currently a net contributor through its share of the UK contribution.
Scotland accounts for 10% of the UK's GDP despite only having 8.3% of the UK population.
Scotland is the 12th largest economy of the 28 EU member states.

53x13
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby 53x13 » 16 Jul 2016, 8:35am

rualexander wrote:
blackbike wrote:I'm not sure leaving the UK would mean Scotland could get back into the EU.

Having just lost one of it biggest cash contributors, the UK, would the EU want to take back an ex-UK country which would not be a net contributor to the Brussels, but a drain on its finances?

I doubt it.

Other countries which are net recipients of EU money would probably veto Scotland's membership, fearing that Scotland would simply reduce the money they get from the reduced number of net contributors.


What makes you think that an independent Scotland would not be a net contributor to the EU finances?
Scotland is currently a net contributor through its share of the UK contribution.
Scotland accounts for 10% of the UK's GDP despite only having 8.3% of the UK population.
Scotland is the 12th largest economy of the 28 EU member states.


It's just the same old tired anti message from Project Fear they had at the last referendum. What is it they say 'Fool us once... '

Sturgeon smells blood, and the prize is really at hand. It's just a matter of waiting, and timing a 2nd Ref. Most politicical commentators agree that a second Ref will be a landslide YES.

Because rejoining (or simply remaining) part of the EU would be an Article 50 event, it only requires a majority vote from the EU (ie 15/28 member states) so a veto is just another red herring. See the table below for countries who ALREADY support Scotland to remain in the EU:
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53x13
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby 53x13 » 16 Jul 2016, 8:36am

al_yrpal wrote:Its all calm here, you guys do inhabit another planet :wink:

Al


Before the storm...

Psamathe
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby Psamathe » 16 Jul 2016, 11:18am

I think Ms May visiting Scotland so soon after taking power send a strong message to Scotland, namely that Westminster leaders are so arrogant they think a nation seeking independence will be so impressed with somebody from down south visiting them that they will give up all thoughts of splitting from a distant uncaring legislature who neither understands them nor listens to them.

I can't see May's visit doing anything more than reminding those if favour of an independent Scotland how important Westminster politicians consider themselves.

Ian

53x13
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby 53x13 » 16 Jul 2016, 4:15pm

Unfortunately May is a woman, and a bottle blonde and a right wing, power mad reformist. Much like the erstwhile Maggie Thatcher. A person more reviled in Scotland than any other politician in the history of the country.

She hasn't done herself, nor the future of the union any favours by stepping over the border. Hate is probably too weak a word to describe the distaste in which Tory politicians are held, north of the border... Sturgeon seems to have a good hand of cards right now, and my money is on a hard game of poker in the months to come. Right down to the wire.

Psamathe
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby Psamathe » 16 Jul 2016, 5:05pm

53x13 wrote:Unfortunately May is a woman, and a bottle blonde and a right wing, power mad reformist. Much like the erstwhile Maggie Thatcher. A person more reviled in Scotland than any other politician in the history of the country.

She hasn't done herself, nor the future of the union any favours by stepping over the border. Hate is probably too weak a word to describe the distaste in which Tory politicians are held, north of the border... Sturgeon seems to have a good hand of cards right now, and my money is on a hard game of poker in the months to come. Right down to the wire.

I suspect the SNP will old back on the referendum for a bit. Plenty of talk about it, plenty of pointing out what Westminster is doing contrary to Scotland interests. It will all add weight to their independence numbers. And with a right wing Conservative government in Westminster voting to renew Trident, to leave the EU, with Boris running foreign affairs, UK economy declining, etc. every day will mean more Scots wanting independence.

But, as you say, Sturgeon has to get time time right as too late and it will be too late to remain in the EU and the damage will be done to the economy. To late and Scotland will have a bigger hole to limb out of (rUK will already be at the bottom of that hole and still digging).

Ian

Tangled Metal
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby Tangled Metal » 16 Jul 2016, 7:31pm

How much weight can you place on a poll of 8404 people across 6 EU states?

Are the people asked among the governments of the 4 EU states out of the 6 with a vote on this?

Link was to an SNP Twitter account...

53x13
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby 53x13 » 16 Jul 2016, 8:01pm

Tangled Metal wrote:How much weight can you place on a poll of 8404 people across 6 EU states?

Are the people asked among the governments of the 4 EU states out of the 6 with a vote on this?

Link was to an SNP Twitter account...


As it's an Article 50 affected decision, it only takes a majority of the member states to vote and Scotland is back in the fold of the EU. A veto vote is not applicable in an article 50 event. So 15/28 states would have to vote Yes. Which, given the antipathy towards the rUK and the desire to give the Brexiters a bloody nose, shouldn't be a difficult ask at all.

The Poll was from an official You Gov European agency. what's your point? None, I would imagine.

mercalia
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby mercalia » 16 Jul 2016, 8:39pm

53x13 wrote:
rualexander wrote:
blackbike wrote:I'm not sure leaving the UK would mean Scotland could get back into the EU.

Having just lost one of it biggest cash contributors, the UK, would the EU want to take back an ex-UK country which would not be a net contributor to the Brussels, but a drain on its finances?

I doubt it.

Other countries which are net recipients of EU money would probably veto Scotland's membership, fearing that Scotland would simply reduce the money they get from the reduced number of net contributors.


What makes you think that an independent Scotland would not be a net contributor to the EU finances?
Scotland is currently a net contributor through its share of the UK contribution.
Scotland accounts for 10% of the UK's GDP despite only having 8.3% of the UK population.
Scotland is the 12th largest economy of the 28 EU member states.


It's just the same old tired anti message from Project Fear they had at the last referendum. What is it they say 'Fool us once... '

Sturgeon smells blood, and the prize is really at hand. It's just a matter of waiting, and timing a 2nd Ref. Most politicical commentators agree that a second Ref will be a landslide YES.

Because rejoining (or simply remaining) part of the EU would be an Article 50 event, it only requires a majority vote from the EU (ie 15/28 member states) so a veto is just another red herring. See the table below for countries who ALREADY support Scotland to remain in the EU:



ah I see SPAIN not mentioned - 'nuff said?
as for it being an article 50 event so a majority is all thats needed, is just tosh

article 50 is about leaving not joining

JimL
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby JimL » 16 Jul 2016, 8:45pm

I've reached the conclusison that 53x13 and Psamathe are the biggest wind up merchants on this forum.

Psamathe
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Re: Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

Postby Psamathe » 16 Jul 2016, 8:49pm

JimL wrote:I've reached the conclusison that 53x13 and Psamathe are the biggest wind up merchants on this forum.

Or maybe we just hold different opinions to yourself. We are discussing things NOT casting aspersions on others who hold different opinions.

Ian