Another Scottish Referendum just around the corner?

[irc]

given that Scotland voted 68%/32% In/Out in the EU referendum

Fact Check. The vote in Scotland was 62% remain, not 68%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028

Would she win it?

Before any 2nd referendum we need to see what sort of Brexit we get. Otherwise we are voting on something without knowing what it is. For the SNP, of course, it's just an excuse for another go. Best of three? For example if we ended up with good access to the single market, agreement for existing residency rights in both the UK and the EU to be recognised, and other agreements what would we be gaining by independence? So it's too early to say if she would win because we don't know what Brexit is yet.

What then for a divided UK, out of Europe, casually eaten away by factionism and forgotten on the international stage (No Scotland = no oil and gas, and nowhere to keep the nuclear deterrent).

A very negative outlook there. There is no reason a Brexit needs to affect our relationships with the rest of the world. Or other European friendships, NATO, etc. As for no oil and gas? THere is the rest of the world to buy them from.

Are you aware the North Sea oil fields are in steep decline? Last year they were a net loss to the UK taxpayer for the first half of 2015.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... me-history

I'll predict that even if there is Indyref 2 the same sensible 55% who voted "No" last time will send Nicola homewards to think again.

[bovlomov]

With Westminster in such chaos, I'd be surprised if the Scots haven't swung more towards independence (from the UK) - even if the economics don't add up. As we know from Brexit - the economics don't have to make sense. Taking control© is more important.

[irc]

All the people I know that voted to stay in the UK in the independence referendum, voted to remain in the EU referendum, and now say they will vote leave if there is a new Scotland out referendum

It's a small sample though. I know referendum "yes" voters who would vote "No" rather than rejoin the EU. Let's wait until we see what Brexit is and we see a few opinion polls afterwards.

[JimL]

All the people I know that voted to stay in the UK in the independence referendum, voted to remain in the EU referendum, and now say they will vote leave if there is a new Scotland out referendum if they can rejoin the EU and they will even accept the euro. I think it would be 62:38 to leave next time. Sturgeon has a strong hand right now, and she's playing it very canny.

On the other hand I know a few people who voted likewise in the referenda but will still vote to stay in the UK in any indy2 which I believe would be more divisive and acrimonious than the first one.


The SNP will soon have to take responsibility for raising tax in order to spend and they won't forever be able to blame the bad boys (and girls ) in London. We'll see how that pans out. Not tot mention how the EU will develop and all the arguments about the Euro and the pound etc etc and all for what?

The holier than thou attitude of the SNP contingent at Westminster is starting to wear a bit thin and the mean spirited response to David Cameron's last Parlimentary appearance as Prime Minister didn't reflect well in my opinion.

[al_yrpal]

The holier than thou attitude of the SNP contingent at Westminster is starting to wear a bit thin and the mean spirited response to David Cameron's last Parliamentary appearance as Prime Minister didn't reflect well in my opinion.

+1 Went down like a lead balloon. Creating a reciprocal anti Scot feeling in many which has never existed before. Very sad. But, its obviously the sort of response that the SNP is actively trying to provoke. Their many opponents in Scotland need to make their voices clearly heard otherwise they will find themselves in a broke Scottish Socialist 'Paradise' ruled by the undemocratic EU, constantly raiding their Sporrans.

Al

[Paulatic]

All the people I know that voted to stay in the UK in the independence referendum, voted to remain in the EU referendum, and now say they will vote leave if there is a new Scotland out referendum if they can rejoin the EU and they will even accept the euro. I think it would be 62:38 to leave next time. Sturgeon has a strong hand right now, and she's playing it very canny.

she likes to make out she has strong hand but conditions count against it

whats really puzzling is that they want to be part of a non democratic EU that they have been only part of for 40 or so years that is racked with failure and corruption & stupidity & vested interests, yet not part of the UK that has been successfully working for 200 years which has given them self govt?!? I think its really some hate the English - some people I know who have moved there seem to get that impression

I can concur with Elizabeth I too know people who voted for the union and also remain who would now vote independence. One cycling friend, very English, swore he'd never return to England to live.
It's also fair to say the Scots see the House of Lords as undemocratic. As for a 200 year old government the success of it appears to show mostly in an area radiating from London. Being given self government looks like being thrown crumbs after the bakers have eaten all the fresh bread.
I've now lived in Scotland longer than I did in England and I've never experienced any hatred personally. I've witnessed numerous "white settlers" in my area over the last 30 years and not all stay. Most intergrate and enjoy living here and stay.
Of those that go back over the border some do because of their jobs. Some do because their partner dies and they want to return to family. Some do because they have a thouroughly miserable time. The climate isn't as good as that glorious holiday in Scotland week they once had. And some bring with them very southern England attitudes, manners ( different or lack of), opinions, and values. These people usually continually comment on "funny money" "nothing happening" nothing's as good as where they came from. So yes I've seen locals very quickly give up and want to avoid them and I suppose they might return to England and say the Scots hate the English.
What they Should be saying when they return is the Scots didn't like me trying to impose my values on their life in their country and I didn't know how or wasn't prepared to fit in with them.

As for holding another referendum just now I hope we don't. I'm completely referendummed out! Things look bleak enough after Brexit and still no one knows what Brexit means and still no one has given me any credible advantage of it. I don't think any more political turmoil is going to help anyone.

[53x13]

Sturgeons Magic bullet is the opportunity to hold another Scottish referendum before Brexit gets going, this way she can play up the uncertainty and the probable anti British feeling that's already brewing in Europe.

As for favourable circumstances, Brexit just handed her the most favourable circumstances ever likely to exist in a shaky United Kingdom. After all, if sovereignty is good for the goose, it's good for the gander.

As has been clear with Brexit, and those who voted for it taking control is everything, and to hell with the consequences.

David Davis saying yesterday that he wouldn't mind WTO import tariffs..

Heaven help us all. I just hope I'm entitled to a Scottish passport.

[Psamathe]

I understand when she went to visit the EU recently, Sturgeon got nothing should Scotland separate from the UK, that Scotland would have to join the EU as a new nation and not slip in under the old UK umbrella. And there is the price of oil and also they wouldnt be able to use the £ any more. so it wont be happening any time soon?

And if Brexit succeeds then there will be a pull to stay in the UK? time is maybe not on Sturgeon's side?

I think Sturgeon's recent visit to the EU would have achieved a lot. She was never going to get any EU officials publicly welcoming and independent Scotland to remain part of the EU. But what she did achieve was to let the EU officials know that not all the UK felt the way the Conservative Party does and that the Scottish are happy to talk and negotiate sand are positive about the EU. That is never going to translate into a press conference or brief interview.

I agree about the challenges of the oil price and I had the impression that a higher oil price was quite important to the viability of an independent Scotland (though others have said not to the extent that Westminster made out.

I doubt Brexit will succeed in the timescales the SNP would be working to whatever. I think at the moment we are talking about minimising the damage of Brexit.

Ian

[Psamathe]

If they do - I'll be seriously considering emigrating...

Don't worry....if Scotland does go independent you can be assured of a warm welcome.

Can I move as well please ?

Ian

[blackbike]

Even if we allow the Scots another independence referendum they'll vote to stay in the UK.

The Scots have a dependency culture based on entitlement to other people's money - English people's money either sent directly from England or via Brussels.

A dependency culture and independence do not go together.

Most Scots know this, and they'll prefer to stay in the union and moan and gripe about it rather than going it alone like the self-supporting and sensible people of England have done with regard to the EU.

[Psamathe]

...
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Scotland co-opted back into the EU immediately upon an OUT vote from the UK.

As we've seen explicitly in the past few weeks, this is a fast moving situation and just about ANYTHING is possible. You can't rule anything out, especially if the Brexit negotiatons go badly, (with Boris as head of the FO, that's likely) I think the EU would go to any lengths to give the rUK a good boot in the teeth, regardless of consequences.
...

I would agree. Allowing Scotland to remain would be a strong signal to the UK. The only issue might be other euro-sceptic countries. But apparently the impacts on the UK already following the vote has seen a decline in support for euro-sceptic parties in some areas of the EU - so that might become less of a problem.

Ian

[Psamathe]

...
David Davis saying yesterday that he wouldn't mind WTO import tariffs..
...

And that's the problem with Westminster. Davies would not mind because he is not exporting, he is well off, has a decent job, descent income, does not have to struggle to export anything to keep his staff employed, etc. But just because Davies would not mind WTO tariffs does not mean that the UK economy "wont mind" nor that our exporting companies "wont mind", etc. We have people negotiating for us who are setting their aims on their personal ideologies.

And he completely overlooks that it is NOT just tariffs, but all the non-tariff complexities (all that paperwork, inspections, etc.) that go with exporting outside the EU.

Ian

[53x13]

...
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Scotland co-opted back into the EU immediately upon an OUT vote from the UK.

As we've seen explicitly in the past few weeks, this is a fast moving situation and just about ANYTHING is possible. You can't rule anything out, especially if the Brexit negotiatons go badly, (with Boris as head of the FO, that's likely) I think the EU would go to any lengths to give the rUK a good boot in the teeth, regardless of consequences.
...

I would agree. Allowing Scotland to remain would be a strong signal to the UK. The only issue might be other euro-sceptic countries. But apparently the impacts on the UK already following the vote has seen a decline in support for euro-sceptic parties in some areas of the EU - so that might become less of a problem.

Ian

Allowing Scotland to remain without reapplying for membership post Independence would not only be a strong signal to what remains of the UK , but it world also wholeheartedly open the door to a second referendum on EU membership for the rUK, which, given that Article 50 may be as much as a year away would be a very sharp move by the European Union.

This is just a huge game of chess now, with countries and sovereignty and free movement of people as pawns. It's a game of who blinks first. Sturgeon would be mad not to take another punt at INDEPENDENCE, especially as Brexit has gone down so very badly north of the border. It's a clear cut case of 'we don't think the same as the rest of the UK'.

What stronger signal could you have?

I predict:

1. Scotland out if the UK and back in Europe in 18 months.

2. Various olive branches held out to a struggling and isolated rUK until they finally capitulate (or a pro EU party gets into power) in the twelve months following the above. 2nd referendum, overwhelming back in Europe vote.

3. A divided Britain returns to Europe, albeit with a much watered down European Union.

[Vorpal]

Maybe the Tories wanted all along to consolidate their majority?

[al_yrpal]

I think that this Scot puts it rather well...

http://boards.fool.co.uk/democratic-con ... 04331.aspx

Al