May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

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53x13
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May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby 53x13 » 17 Jul 2016, 8:23am

I read with interest on a political forum this idea of a 'third way out' for May. Since Article 50 will be a political and constitutional parting of the ways (and not a trade one, EU members are not allowed to negotiate trade deals till AFTER the two year divorce) it would leave Britain in a year zero situation, with effectively no trade deals, with anyone, anywhere. This is a very risky proposition, which would make Britain an investment pariah for quite some time.

But, apparently May has a third option to consider. An interim agreement. This would deal with her main problem, which is time. The Article 50 timetable is just so punishing no nation could come out of it safely. She could skip all this two-year stuff and agree an interim arrangement where the UK stays in the single market while it negotiates its ultimate Brexit deal, with a deadline of 2020 to coincide with the general election. Then she could go to the country looking for a mandate to sign that deal. That would calm the markets, provide a better situation for a decent deal with Europe and other countries, and generally make the whole process a lot less frightening and hysterical for all involved.

But won't all the whining Brexiters hate that?

Maybe so, but no option is actually good, they're just different levels of bad. They'll hate it less than if she said she'd stay in the single market permanently. And who knows? After five years have passed, views might have changed.

After five years, with the punishment British industry is going to take and the sneaky French angling to poach our financial services market, the appetite to leave the EU might no longer exist.

May is a sharp operator. I can't see Article 50 being invoked anytime in the next 18 months. Kicking the whole thing into the long grass is probably the least inflammatory thing to do. Especially as we can't discuss trade deals at all, until the divorce is complete.

Anyone wanting to know the exact detail of Article 50, here it is:

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

53x13
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby 53x13 » 17 Jul 2016, 8:35am

The conditions for re admission to the European Union as stated in Article 49 (The UK, or Scotland for example) would require an absolute majority vote to be successful.

In most voting cases, when dealing with ground changing legislative procedure, and the so-called "assent procedure," it decides by an absolute majority. This is a majority of all its members, regardless of whether or not all are present.

From July 2014 an absolute majority was 376 of 751 MEPs.

pwa
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby pwa » 17 Jul 2016, 8:42am

I think a lot of people are desperate to find a way of getting out of the fact that they lost the Referendum, instead of moving on and making the best of the future. It's over. We are out and we have to forge a new future. Adjust.

yakdiver
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby yakdiver » 17 Jul 2016, 8:45am

pwa wrote:I think a lot of people are desperate to find a way of getting out of the fact that they lost the Referendum, instead of moving on and making the best of the future. It's over. We are out and we have to forge a new future. Adjust.

Well said that man
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Tiberius
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby Tiberius » 17 Jul 2016, 8:50am

Re the whole subject of trade deals post Brexit.....

This took (literally) ten seconds to Google...I'm GUESSING that if had nothing better to do then I could probably find plenty of other, much better examples, but it's a start.....It's obviously not conclusive and it is 'The Mail'.....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... rexit.html

I see a bright future ahead......Let's crack on with it !!!
Last edited by Tiberius on 17 Jul 2016, 8:56am, edited 1 time in total.

53x13
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby 53x13 » 17 Jul 2016, 8:56am

Tiberius wrote:Re the whole subject of trade deals post Brexit.....

This took (literally) ten seconds to Google...I'm GUESSING that if had nothing better to then I could probably find plenty of other, much better examples, but it's a start.....It's obviously not conclusive and it is 'The Mail'.....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... rexit.html


Britain can't negotiate ANY trade deals with ANYONE while it is still a member of the EU. So it's all just whistling in the wind and political whatiffery. This exit is likely 3+ years away. Or longer. My shout is that it'll coincide with the next GE in 2020.

53x13
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby 53x13 » 17 Jul 2016, 8:59am

pwa wrote:I think a lot of people are desperate to find a way of getting out of the fact that they lost the Referendum, instead of moving on and making the best of the future. It's over. We are out and we have to forge a new future. Adjust.


I think you'll find Theresa May is one of them.

Imo the next referendum on EU membership will be the 2020 general election, or more likely, when Brexit negotiatons go to the wall: a GE much sooner than we expected .
Last edited by 53x13 on 17 Jul 2016, 11:47am, edited 1 time in total.

Psamathe
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby Psamathe » 17 Jul 2016, 9:05am

A significant difficulty is that those May has put in charge really don't understand the rules. A classic example is Davies who in May 2016 was claiming that once we left the UK would negotiate trade deals with each of the EU countries separately (one-on-one).

I heard today that Werrity (or was it Fox) is meeting with some US official to discuss a trade deal and Australia is keen to make a free trade deal with the UK. Challenges are that US will want something like TTIP (can't remember is Boris is currently a massive fan of TTIP or violent objector to TTIP - seems to keep changing). A UK TTIP will take ages to negotiate and would be very unacceptable to the UK public (even the Leave supporters). And Australia, ok a start but we 40% of our exports are to the EU and it is more than tariffs (the non-tariff barriers are significant, particularly things like documentation and bureaucracy - something we are leaving the EU to get rid of).

It is an interesting possibility that interim alternatives to Article 50 might be agreed as it is far from an established mechanism. And despite the Leavers continually claiming that the EU needs us more than we need them (export wise), truth is not quite that simple when you look at exports in terms of GDP and on a per country basis (after all you could say "the rest of the world needs us more than we need them because the rest of the world exports more to the UK than the UK exports to the rest of the world"). And there may easily be significant difficulties is the UK joining the EEA without also incorporating the 4 Freedoms (including Freedom of Movement). An interim agreement might side-step a lot of those difficulties.

Ian
p.s. Hoping to discuss an interesting idea rather than just bring out the Leavers can only contribute accusations of e.g. "I think a lot of people are desperate to find a way of getting out of the fact that they lost the Referendum". The future relationship of the UK with the EU and how we transition to that point is very important to the UK (economy, jobs, laws, etc.) so I can't see any reason why discussing things and what our politicians are considering is so terrible. There are many equally trivial responses to the "desperate to find a way out" type comments all of which add nothing to the discussion.

pete75
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby pete75 » 17 Jul 2016, 9:05am

pwa wrote:I think a lot of people are desperate to find a way of getting out of the fact that they lost the Referendum, instead of moving on and making the best of the future. It's over. We are out and we have to forge a new future. Adjust.


We're out? When did that happen? I didn't think they'd even triggered article 50 yet.

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bovlomov
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby bovlomov » 17 Jul 2016, 9:10am

pwa wrote:I think a lot of people are desperate to find a way of getting out of the fact that they lost the Referendum, instead of moving on and making the best of the future. It's over. We are out and we have to forge a new future. Adjust.

Perhaps the Remainers will do what the Eurosceptics have been doing for 30 years: causing hell for every government and inventing stories to suit their agenda. Why wouldn't they?

Psamathe
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby Psamathe » 17 Jul 2016, 9:13am

53x13 wrote:...
Britain can't negotiate ANY trade deals with ANYONE while it is still a member of the EU.

Are the rules "can't negotiate" or "can't make/sign" and trade deals?

I can see a significant "grey area" around negotiating trade deals with other than the EU. The UK could have a lot of very detailed meetings discussing what "basis we could use for future trade deals", what sectors might be covered, what commitments might be considered, etc. and we would only be discussing possible future negotiations. In reality we would be doing the initial stages of trade negotiations but calling them something different (trade deals take years so early talks are more general). And I can't see the EU wanting to get into an "oh yes you are ... oh no we're not" confrontation about talks the UK is having with other countries. Of course nothing can be signed but we could start the process (I doubt we'f be ready to sign much by the next election anyway as these things take years and apparently the UK does not really have the skilled negotiators any more).

Ian

Psamathe
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby Psamathe » 17 Jul 2016, 9:14am

bovlomov wrote:
pwa wrote:I think a lot of people are desperate to find a way of getting out of the fact that they lost the Referendum, instead of moving on and making the best of the future. It's over. We are out and we have to forge a new future. Adjust.

Perhaps the Remainers will do what the Eurosceptics have been doing for 30 years: causing hell for every government and inventing stories to suit their agenda. Why wouldn't they?

As Farage told Mirror in May: “52-48 referendum would be unfinished business - If Remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

Ian

53x13
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby 53x13 » 17 Jul 2016, 9:15am

pete75 wrote:
pwa wrote:I think a lot of people are desperate to find a way of getting out of the fact that they lost the Referendum, instead of moving on and making the best of the future. It's over. We are out and we have to forge a new future. Adjust.


We're out? When did that happen? I didn't think they'd even triggered article 50 yet.


I agree with Psmanthe, if those wishing to post nonsense, non contributions like the above could save them for another thread, much appreciated.

This is as serious a topic has ever likely been discussed on the forum and it would be good if it could be done so with some thought, care and decorum, rather than the usual name calling, from the usual suspects.

53x13
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby 53x13 » 17 Jul 2016, 9:16am

Psamathe wrote:
53x13 wrote:...
Britain can't negotiate ANY trade deals with ANYONE while it is still a member of the EU.

Are the rules "can't negotiate" or "can't make/sign" and trade deals?

I can see a significant "grey area" around negotiating trade deals with other than the EU. The UK could have a lot of very detailed meetings discussing what "basis we could use for future trade deals", what sectors might be covered, what commitments might be considered, etc. and we would only be discussing possible future negotiations. In reality we would be doing the initial stages of trade negotiations but calling them something different (trade deals take years so early talks are more general). And I can't see the EU wanting to get into an "oh yes you are ... oh no we're not" confrontation about talks the UK is having with other countries. Of course nothing can be signed but we could start the process (I doubt we'f be ready to sign much by the next election anyway as these things take years and apparently the UK does not really have the skilled negotiators any more).

Ian


The rules are emphatically 'can't negotiate/sign while still a member of the Union'.

This from today's Guardian :

'May described the call with Turnbull as very encouraging and insisted it showed leaving the European Union could work for Britain. She has asked the new international trade secretary, Liam Fox, to begin exploring options but acknowledged that Britain could not sign any deals while it was still an EU member.'

Apparently you can have nice chats though, over a cup of tea. And self congratulate yourself on the amount of paid for international holidays you've racked up. A nice job for Boris.
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pete75
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Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby pete75 » 17 Jul 2016, 9:26am

53x13 wrote:
pete75 wrote:
pwa wrote:I think a lot of people are desperate to find a way of getting out of the fact that they lost the Referendum, instead of moving on and making the best of the future. It's over. We are out and we have to forge a new future. Adjust.


We're out? When did that happen? I didn't think they'd even triggered article 50 yet.


I agree with Psmanthe, if those wishing to post nonsense, non contributions like the above could save them for another thread, much appreciated.

This is as serious a topic has ever likely been discussed on the forum and it would be good if it could be done so with some thought, care and decorum, rather than the usual name calling, from the usual suspects.


I don't think my post is a non contribution. I was merely responding to pwa's claim that we're out when that is far from the case. There's still a lot of discussion/negotiation to be done in case you hadn't noticed.