May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Use this board for general non-cycling-related chat, or to introduce yourself to the forum.
53x13
Posts: 524
Joined: 28 Apr 2016, 6:41pm

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby 53x13 » 17 Jul 2016, 9:29am

pete75 wrote:
53x13 wrote:
pete75 wrote:
We're out? When did that happen? I didn't think they'd even triggered article 50 yet.


I agree with Psmanthe, if those wishing to post nonsense, non contributions like the above could save them for another thread, much appreciated.

This is as serious a topic has ever likely been discussed on the forum and it would be good if it could be done so with some thought, care and decorum, rather than the usual name calling, from the usual suspects.


I don't think my post is a non contribution. I was merely responding to pwa's claim that we're out when that is far from the case. There's still a lot of discussion/negotiation to be done in case you hadn't noticed.


Sorry Pete, I was referring to the non sequitur that pwa posted.

Tiberius
Posts: 591
Joined: 31 Dec 2014, 8:45am
Location: North East England

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby Tiberius » 17 Jul 2016, 11:05am

53x13 wrote:Britain can't negotiate ANY trade deals with ANYONE while it is still a member of the EU. So it's all just whistling in the wind and political whatiffery. This exit is likely 3+ years away.


I do get that, hence the reason that I wrote 'post Brexit'....as in AFTER we have left.

Just heard that Australia is keen on a bit of 'whistling in the wind and political whatiffery'...... :D

blackbike
Posts: 2492
Joined: 11 Jul 2009, 3:21pm

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby blackbike » 17 Jul 2016, 1:07pm

Hope springs eternal in the Remainer breast as they refuse to accept the will of the people.

I have never enjoyed seeing a bunch of people making such utter fools of themselves as the losers of the referendum.

It is always pleasing to see pompous, angry people demanding that everyone obeys them when nobody has to.

Psamathe
Posts: 12202
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby Psamathe » 17 Jul 2016, 1:26pm

Tiberius wrote:....
Just heard that Australia is keen on a bit of 'whistling in the wind and political whatiffery'...... :D

Australia needs somewhere with a government prepared to ignore Global Warming who is thus prepared to buy their coal. And they don't want anything like tariffs to get in the way of that.

Ian

Psamathe
Posts: 12202
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby Psamathe » 17 Jul 2016, 1:27pm

Psamathe wrote:
Tiberius wrote:....
Just heard that Australia is keen on a bit of 'whistling in the wind and political whatiffery'...... :D

Australia needs somewhere with a government prepared to ignore Global Warming who is thus prepared to buy their coal. And they don't want anything like tariffs to get in the way of that. They can only burn so much themselves.

Ian

53x13
Posts: 524
Joined: 28 Apr 2016, 6:41pm

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby 53x13 » 18 Jul 2016, 7:09am

blackbike wrote:Hope springs eternal in the Remainer breast as they refuse to accept the will of the people.

I have never enjoyed seeing a bunch of people making such utter fools of themselves as the losers of the referendum.

It is always pleasing to see pompous, angry people demanding that everyone obeys them when nobody has to.


I'm not suggesting brexit won't happen, I'm simply pointing out that there are many different routes to brexit, and it may be some time before brexit is triggered (and extensions to the 2 year period can be given ad nauseaum by the Commission). I'm not convinced that this government will be able to effectively or diligently deliver a good exit for the UK. Imo it'll take another general election and a new administration (if Brexit negotiatons go badly, and they probably will) we'll have both, long before 2020.

What is certain is that these will be very fast moving events once Article 50 is triggered. My call is a independent Scotland, back in the EU and a deliberately isolated and pariah like rUK struggling on all fronts with no oil or gas to bargain with, a very much diminished financial sector (largely poached by France), no nuclear submarine facilities and the fall out from large industry leaving the UK and tit for tat movement/work limitations supplied by Europe on British citizens abroad. A Yes vote in Scotland will almost certainly trigger another GE in the rUK. I'd think that Brexit will definitely be on the table as one of the main election issues. For and against.

All in all, a complete miasma of unknowns and imponderable consequences. This is not going to be at all pretty. What kind of rUK would come out the other side of all of the above and what kind of deal they would get I've no idea.

David Davis keeps banging on about what great trade deals there are with the rest if the world. What position rUK would be in to manufacture or provide financial services, given the battering both would get, to these 'new markets' I'm not really convinced.

Answers on a postcard.

pwa
Posts: 13873
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby pwa » 18 Jul 2016, 9:09am

53x13 wrote:
blackbike wrote:Hope springs eternal in the Remainer breast as they refuse to accept the will of the people.

I have never enjoyed seeing a bunch of people making such utter fools of themselves as the losers of the referendum.

It is always pleasing to see pompous, angry people demanding that everyone obeys them when nobody has to.


I'm not suggesting brexit won't happen, I'm simply pointing out that there are many different routes to brexit, and it may be some time before brexit is triggered (and extensions to the 2 year period can be given ad nauseaum by the Commission). I'm not convinced that this government will be able to effectively or diligently deliver a good exit for the UK. Imo it'll take another general election and a new administration (if Brexit negotiatons go badly, and they probably will) we'll have both, long before 2020.

What is certain is that these will be very fast moving events once Article 50 is triggered. My call is a independent Scotland, back in the EU and a deliberately isolated and pariah like rUK struggling on all fronts with no oil or gas to bargain with, a very much diminished financial sector (largely poached by France), no nuclear submarine facilities and the fall out from large industry leaving the UK and tit for tat movement/work limitations supplied by Europe on British citizens abroad. A Yes vote in Scotland will almost certainly trigger another GE in the rUK. I'd think that Brexit will definitely be on the table as one of the main election issues. For and against.

All in all, a complete miasma of unknowns and imponderable consequences. This is not going to be at all pretty. What kind of rUK would come out the other side of all of the above and what kind of deal they would get I've no idea.

David Davis keeps banging on about what great trade deals there are with the rest if the world. What position rUK would be in to manufacture or provide financial services, given the battering both would get, to these 'new markets' I'm not really convinced.

Answers on a postcard.


So maximum pessimism from you, then. Alternatively, UK exporters get a boost as a result of the previously overvalued pound coming down to a more realistic level, inward investment continues (evidence in today's business news) and the EU may even behave in an adult way and seek to maintain the level of trade with the UK. Why take a gloomy view all the time?

User avatar
al_yrpal
Posts: 9036
Joined: 25 Jul 2007, 9:47pm
Location: Think Cheddar and Cider
Contact:

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby al_yrpal » 18 Jul 2016, 9:23am

All the banksters are going to luuuuv France, their wage packets would be a lot lighter after French taxes and acres of red tape. Quite soon they would be following Depardieu! Its as if some people cannot accept the situation and are continually posting their dismal wishes for a Brexit disaster on this forum? Sure things will be bumpy for a while but the wide blue yonder is beckoning those of us who solve problems and move things forward.

Keep calm and carry on

Al
Touring on a bicycle is a great way to explore and appreciate the countryside and towns you pass through. Make a difference...

kwackers
Posts: 15447
Joined: 4 Jun 2008, 9:29pm
Location: Warrington

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby kwackers » 18 Jul 2016, 9:24am

pwa wrote:So maximum pessimism from you, then. Alternatively, UK exporters get a boost as a result of the previously overvalued pound coming down to a more realistic level, inward investment continues (evidence in today's business news) and the EU may even behave in an adult way and seek to maintain the level of trade with the UK. Why take a gloomy view all the time?

It's good that exporters get a boost, but it does come at a cost and given our imports are greater than our exports the cost is likely to outweigh the benefit at least for the short term.

As for inward investment - for example the attempt to purchase ARM.
I've worked in the tech industry for a long time and seen this many times. ARM has value because of it's 'IP'. Without the IP the company is just a collection of employees. If this goes as pretty much every other such purchase has gone then the buyers will milk the IP and in 5 years will 'absorb' the company as part of a cost cutting exercise.
Fingers crossed I'm wrong.

Back to exports. I think it's important that if we are to make a go of brexit then we do need to be able to export stuff cheaply, even if it means a reduction in living standards.
As supporters of brexit like to remind us the EU is a protectionist market but that works both ways. Without that protection we need to produce our goods cheaper and there are a limited number of ways that can happen. We also need a manufacturing base and stuff to make, something progressive governments have slowly seen off. Can we get it back in time? I'm not sure anyone actually knows.

Also currently our service industries are all well in the black when it comes to trade deficits and we'll see a huge increase in competition in that area. Unlike manufacturing service industries can be moved easily on a whim to anywhere on the globe.
Don't know about you but I'm fielding around 3-5 emails a day offering me a full relocation package to various countries around the world compared with the same number per week pre-brexit.

The vultures are circling and we need a government that can make the best of a bad hand and I'm far from convinced this one can nor am I convinced we can even move the necessary infrastructure in place to do so.

Ben@Forest
Posts: 2815
Joined: 28 Jan 2013, 5:58pm

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby Ben@Forest » 18 Jul 2016, 9:28am

53x13 wrote:I'm not suggesting brexit won't happen, I'm simply pointing out that there are many different routes to brexit, and it may be some time before brexit is triggered (and extensions to the 2 year period can be given ad nauseaum by the Commission). I'm not convinced that this government will be able to effectively or diligently deliver a good exit for the UK. Imo it'll take another general election and a new administration (if Brexit negotiatons go badly, and they probably will) we'll have both, long before 2020


Whenever I see this type of comment I'm reminded of the doomsayers after the 2010 coalition was agreed. Many, especially centre-left or left-wing, journos or commentators on forums exulted in the fact that the coalition would not last 12 months.

We now know that not only did it last but that the relationship between Cameron, Osborne, Clegg and Alexander (initially Laws for a very brief period) was professional and workmanlike, and indeed far better than the relationship between Blair and Brown. May is a pragmatist, EU negotiators will be pragmatists. I'm sure both parties will compromise and to the extent modern politics 'works' it will work.

gottogetfit
Posts: 46
Joined: 19 Dec 2014, 6:27pm

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby gottogetfit » 18 Jul 2016, 10:25am

pwa wrote:I think a lot of people are desperate to find a way of getting out of the fact that they lost the Referendum, instead of moving on and making the best of the future. It's over. We are out and we have to forge a new future. Adjust.

Couldn't agree more!

PDQ Mobile
Posts: 4089
Joined: 2 Aug 2015, 4:40pm

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby PDQ Mobile » 18 Jul 2016, 11:59am

I am happy to adjust to nearly everything.
The one thing I will not give up without a fight is my European Citizenship.
For it is potentially being taken away from me without good reason. I am a law abiding decent citizen of Europe and I will go onto the street to protect it.


It is more important to me personally than all the economic factors put together.

PH
Posts: 9952
Joined: 21 Jan 2007, 12:31am
Location: Derby
Contact:

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby PH » 18 Jul 2016, 12:12pm

Ben@Forest wrote:We now know that not only did it last but that the relationship between Cameron, Osborne, Clegg and Alexander (initially Laws for a very brief period)

Remind us what happened to the Liberals as a result of this wonderland?
Is that the fate you wish upon the UK?
The doomsayers were saying it would finish the Liberals for a long time, history hasn't yet proved them wrong.

pwa
Posts: 13873
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby pwa » 18 Jul 2016, 12:45pm

PDQ Mobile wrote:I am happy to adjust to nearly everything.
The one thing I will not give up without a fight is my European Citizenship.
For it is potentially being taken away from me without good reason. I am a law abiding decent citizen of Europe and I will go onto the street to protect it.


It is more important to me personally than all the economic factors put together.


We all have subtly different ways of defining what we are. You feel yourself to be a European Citizen. I don't. Never have. But we had a vote that was billed as our chance to settle it, once and for all. Except that when they didn't like the result, some of those on the losing side decided that this vote wasn't "once and for all". It would have been "once and for all" if they had won. That would have been Democracy doing its job. Do we just keep moving the goal posts until we get "the right result"? Do we keep on voting until we get it "right"? If we did end up back in the EU, do you honestly think that the UK would ever actually unite behind that? I think the anti-EU sentiment among those of us who dislike that institution would be stronger than we have ever seen it before.

Ben@Forest
Posts: 2815
Joined: 28 Jan 2013, 5:58pm

Re: May could kick Brexit into the long grass.

Postby Ben@Forest » 18 Jul 2016, 12:46pm

PH wrote:
Ben@Forest wrote:We now know that not only did it last but that the relationship between Cameron, Osborne, Clegg and Alexander (initially Laws for a very brief period)

Remind us what happened to the Liberals as a result of this wonderland?
Is that the fate you wish upon the UK?
The doomsayers were saying it would finish the Liberals for a long time, history hasn't yet proved them wrong.


And if the Liberals Democrats had come out of the 2015 election with 120 seats Clegg would be hailed as a genius. And part of the reason they were heavily hammered was the ascendancy of the SNP - something that could hardly have been foreseen in 2010.

It's politics, parties rise and fall, split and re-unite. Do we really think Clegg would have shed a tear for Cameron if the Conservatives had been reduced to 150 seats in 2015? No - why would Cameron (or Sturgeon) be any different?