pwa wrote:So maximum pessimism from you, then. Alternatively, UK exporters get a boost as a result of the previously overvalued pound coming down to a more realistic level, inward investment continues (evidence in today's business news) and the EU may even behave in an adult way and seek to maintain the level of trade with the UK. Why take a gloomy view all the time?
It's good that exporters get a boost, but it does come at a cost and given our imports are greater than our exports the cost is likely to outweigh the benefit at least for the short term.
As for inward investment - for example the attempt to purchase ARM.
I've worked in the tech industry for a long time and seen this many times. ARM has value because of it's 'IP'. Without the IP the company is just a collection of employees. If this goes as pretty much every other such purchase has gone then the buyers will milk the IP and in 5 years will 'absorb' the company as part of a cost cutting exercise.
Fingers crossed I'm wrong.
Back to exports. I think it's important that if we are to make a go of brexit then we do need to be able to export stuff cheaply, even if it means a reduction in living standards.
As supporters of brexit like to remind us the EU is a protectionist market but that works both ways. Without that protection we need to produce our goods cheaper and there are a limited number of ways that can happen. We also need a manufacturing base and stuff to make, something progressive governments have slowly seen off. Can we get it back in time? I'm not sure anyone actually knows.
Also currently our service industries are all well in the black when it comes to trade deficits and we'll see a huge increase in competition in that area. Unlike manufacturing service industries can be moved easily on a whim to anywhere on the globe.
Don't know about you but I'm fielding around 3-5 emails a day offering me a full relocation package to various countries around the world compared with the same number per week pre-brexit.
The vultures are circling and we need a government that can make the best of a bad hand and I'm far from convinced this one can nor am I convinced we can even move the necessary infrastructure in place to do so.