** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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broadway
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby broadway » 30 May 2017, 2:49pm

Boyd wrote:.3% will make no difference to people like me who live on £11,000 a year. It is "glib" to suggest it would. By people in hardship do you mean people who use Free food banks?
Unemployment has fallen. What are you talking about?
You can hope and pray for a recession so you can blame it on brexit but at the end of the day merely not being in the EU will make me happy.
Any recession will be blamed on brexit by remainders no matter what the real cause.


Where does this 0.3% figure come from?

According to the statistics:
Food and non-alcoholic beverages Annual rate +1.6%, up from +1.3% last month
Highest since March 2014 (+1.7%)

Which is 0.3% for a month.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/econom ... pr2017.pdf
Last edited by broadway on 30 May 2017, 9:23pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Vorpal » 30 May 2017, 3:00pm

Nobody is hoping & praying for a recession (except maybe bookmakers & companies that deal with emergency loans & bankruptcy).

I honestly hope the Brexit is beneficial for the UK & Europe. I would rather say 'I was wrong' than 'I told you so'.

That said, I dont think that Brexit will, as some seem to think, be disastrous. In fact, I think it could be beneficial to farming. But I do think that long term it will be a disadvantage to most British business, and especially manufacturing firms. That isn't something we will see in the next year; more likely 10 years. When it will be harder to blame on Brexit.
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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 30 May 2017, 3:29pm

Boyd wrote:.3% will make no difference to people like me who live on £11,000 a year. It is "glib" to suggest it would. By people in hardship do you mean people who use Free food banks?

Firstly, you seem to be talking about inflation over a month rather than a year. Secondly, it makes a great difference to someone earning £11,000, unless you have already paid for your house and have a large amount saved.

Unemployment has fallen. What are you talking about?

I said that people have lost their jobs as a result of Brexit. Even if (a big if) those job losses are offset in other areas, it is no less distressing to the people whose have lost their posts. At present no party has a credible plan to manage the changes.

You can hope and pray for a recession so you can blame it on brexit but at the end of the day merely not being in the EU will make me happy.
So you won't mind if there are dire financial consequences. Good for you, but not so much for others, perhaps.

Any recession will be blamed on brexit by remainders no matter what the real cause.

And will you deny that any recession has anything to do with Brexit?

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby brynpoeth » 30 May 2017, 6:44pm

Vorpal wrote:Nobody is hoping & praying for a recession (except maybe bookmakers & companies that deal with emergency loans & bankruptcy).

I honestly hope the Brexit is beneficial for the UK & Europe. I would rather say 'I was wrong' than 'I told you so'.

That said, I dont think that Brexit will, as some seem to think, be disastrous. In fact, I think it could be beneficial to farming. But I do think that long term it will be a disadvantage to most British business, and especially manufacturing firms. That isn't something we will see in the next year; more likely 10 years. When it will be harder to blame on Brexit.


I would welcome a recession if that means reductions in economic activity and trade and transport and use of resources

Economic growth is inextricably linked with increasing use of resources and land

The Grauniad reported that the labour-intensive strawberry industry might go short of staff

Is there any need to eat strawberries every day or every week, or in winter?
One imagines that vegetable growing needs less labour. Let them eat swedes and parsnips! One could occasionally enjoy expensive strawberries in season as a treat
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Paulatic
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Paulatic » 30 May 2017, 7:11pm

Vorpal wrote:Nobody is hoping & praying for a recession (except maybe bookmakers & companies that deal with emergency loans & bankruptcy).

I honestly hope the Brexit is beneficial for the UK & Europe. I would rather say 'I was wrong' than 'I told you so'.

That said, I dont think that Brexit will, as some seem to think, be disastrous. In fact, I think it could be beneficial to farming. But I do think that long term it will be a disadvantage to most British business, and especially manufacturing firms. That isn't something we will see in the next year; more likely 10 years. When it will be harder to blame on Brexit.


Im interested to know in what way you think it will be beneficial to farming.
The only reason I had a job for the last 30 yrs was because an eu payment was propping it up coupled with exports to Europe.
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Psamathe » 30 May 2017, 8:29pm

Boyd wrote:.3% will make no difference to people like me who live on £11,000 a year.

0.3% - you're making up figures yet again
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-ons-food-inflation-highest-three-years-a7677761.html wrote:Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were 1.2 per cent higher on a year earlier, up from a rate of 0.2 per cent in February and the biggest increase since March 2014.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/07/food-inflation-doubles-discounters-grab-record-grocery-share/ wrote:Grocery inflation at the till - which has been the result of rising import costs from a weaker pound since the UK's EU referendum vote - doubled to 1.4pc in the 12 weeks to the end of February compared to the same period to the end of January, according to industry figures by Kantar Worldpanel.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-grocers-kantar-idUKKBN16E0T9 wrote:Market researcher Kantar Worldpanel said grocery inflation was 1.4 percent for the 12 weeks to Feb. 26, up from 0.7 percent in the 12 weeks to Jan. 29.


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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Vorpal » 30 May 2017, 9:56pm

Paulatic wrote:Im interested to know in what way you think it will be beneficial to farming.
The only reason I had a job for the last 30 yrs was because an eu payment was propping it up coupled with exports to Europe.

I said *could* be beneficial. I think that the EU subsidies are poorly designed for British farming needs, and the British countryside. Some EU subsidies require that land be kept clear, and others support unsustainable farming practices.

I would prefer that for example, instead of paying for cleared and fallow land, subsidies support the regeneration of habitat. This could be combined with existing grant programmes for such things as lark meadows, and hedge planting. They system could be simplified instead of applying for funds separately. Farmers could be paid for innovation, for participating in R&D, or for training future farmers.

A new subsidy system could be designed to support both food and farm needs, and bring local food to local markets. Apple and Pear farming could be revived, for example, instead of importing apples from Italy, Spain, and further afield. The price of milk could be subsidised and revive dairy farming, instead of driving dairy farmers out of business. Personally, I think that the Common Agriculture Policy has done more harm than good. The subsidies are currently designed to support particular crops, which may not be the best for British markets, British farmers, or the countryside.
But even if the government only replace the existing subsidies, it will save money, because the UK currently pay more into CAP than British farmers receive back.

Unfortunately, it is extremely complex, and detangling the web of subsidies and tariffs will be difficult to manage effectively. It could very easily end up worse than CAP, but there is a good opportunity to create something better.
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 30 May 2017, 10:10pm

Boyd wrote:.3% will make no difference to people like me who live on £11,000 a year.


Other than a bit of bush beating what sort of work do you do that you earn so little?

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Paulatic » 31 May 2017, 9:18pm

Vorpal wrote:
Paulatic wrote:Im interested to know in what way you think it will be beneficial to farming.
The only reason I had a job for the last 30 yrs was because an eu payment was propping it up coupled with exports to Europe.

I said *could* be beneficial. I think that the EU subsidies are poorly designed for British farming needs, and the British countryside. Some EU subsidies require that land be kept clear, and others support unsustainable farming practices.

I would prefer that for example, instead of paying for cleared and fallow land, subsidies support the regeneration of habitat. This could be combined with existing grant programmes for such things as lark meadows, and hedge planting. They system could be simplified instead of applying for funds separately. Farmers could be paid for innovation, for participating in R&D, or for training future farmers.

A new subsidy system could be designed to support both food and farm needs, and bring local food to local markets. Apple and Pear farming could be revived, for example, instead of importing apples from Italy, Spain, and further afield. The price of milk could be subsidised and revive dairy farming, instead of driving dairy farmers out of business. Personally, I think that the Common Agriculture Policy has done more harm than good. The subsidies are currently designed to support particular crops, which may not be the best for British markets, British farmers, or the countryside.
But even if the government only replace the existing subsidies, it will save money, because the UK currently pay more into CAP than British farmers receive back.

Unfortunately, it is extremely complex, and detangling the web of subsidies and tariffs will be difficult to manage effectively. It could very easily end up worse than CAP, but there is a good opportunity to create something better.


I agree it's a good opportunity to overhaul the system. If we'd a green thinking government in charge then your proposals are possible. I think the government we have now will be in bed with Monsanto, Bayer and large landowners.
On a recent visit to Kent I walked through hundreds of acres of newly planted apple trees. They were all in blossom too a wonderful experience. I spoke to retired people who all happily told tales as children spending weeks in huts, no hot water, and picking apples. Im guessing most I spoke to voted for Brexit. I hope their grandchildren will be as willing to do the picking.
Your views of CAP might be a little outdated since the reform. Paying in and getting out is an interesting one. Under the present system the money the UK receives is mostly due to the qualifying land in Scotland. Then that same money is shared amongst the whole of the UK. Scotland can't even receive the money it's due before Brexit so I think there is very little chance it will afterwards.
As for driving dairy farmers out of business did you know dairy cow numbers in the UK are rising? That implies to me things aren't that bad. No subsidy required just a real price from supermarkets and a public willing to pay.
IMG_0227.JPG

I vividly remember the damage being done to the countryside created by Headage Payments. I used to refer to sheep as field lice. Production didn't matter just a head to count be it fictitious or real. Those days have gone or maybe they'll return as a government worried about feeding its nation listens sympathetically to our farmers.
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby [XAP]Bob » 31 May 2017, 11:15pm

pete75 wrote:
Boyd wrote:.3% will make no difference to people like me who live on £11,000 a year.


Other than a bit of bush beating what sort of work do you do that you earn so little?

Anyone on a zero hours contract could be earning this or less... but don't worry they're 'employed'
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 31 May 2017, 11:19pm

[XAP]Bob wrote:
pete75 wrote:
Boyd wrote:.3% will make no difference to people like me who live on £11,000 a year.


Other than a bit of bush beating what sort of work do you do that you earn so little?

Anyone on a zero hours contract could be earning this or less... but don't worry they're 'employed'

That's the easy bit to understand. The interesting question is how inflation makes no difference to someone with that income.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Vorpal » 1 Jun 2017, 11:24am

Paulatic wrote:I agree it's a good opportunity to overhaul the system. If we'd a green thinking government in charge then your proposals are possible. I think the government we have now will be in bed with Monsanto, Bayer and large landowners.
On a recent visit to Kent I walked through hundreds of acres of newly planted apple trees. They were all in blossom too a wonderful experience. I spoke to retired people who all happily told tales as children spending weeks in huts, no hot water, and picking apples. Im guessing most I spoke to voted for Brexit. I hope their grandchildren will be as willing to do the picking.
Your views of CAP might be a little outdated since the reform. Paying in and getting out is an interesting one. Under the present system the money the UK receives is mostly due to the qualifying land in Scotland. Then that same money is shared amongst the whole of the UK. Scotland can't even receive the money it's due before Brexit so I think there is very little chance it will afterwards.
As for driving dairy farmers out of business did you know dairy cow numbers in the UK are rising? That implies to me things aren't that bad. No subsidy required just a real price from supermarkets and a public willing to pay.
IMG_0227.JPG
I vividly remember the damage being done to the countryside created by Headage Payments. I used to refer to sheep as field lice. Production didn't matter just a head to count be it fictitious or real. Those days have gone or maybe they'll return as a government worried about feeding its nation listens sympathetically to our farmers.

It's possible that my understanding is somewhat dated. I haven't been in the industry for 8 years. Though I was aware of the reform, and some particulars, I haven't seen it in action.

As far as dairy cows go, there may be more cows, but there are many fewer producers https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-inform ... S_pmq_av4Y

If not subsidy, then we need price regulation, or some other means to boost what farmers are paid. The UK is following in the steps of larger countries; the price is driving small farms out business, and driving consolidation. The minimum head of cows required in order to just break even continues to rise. While it is good that the price drives efficiency improvements, it's not good that only a handful of producers can be profitable on today's prices.
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Boyd » 4 Jun 2017, 8:29pm

pete75 wrote:
Boyd wrote:.3% will make no difference to people like me who live on £11,000 a year.


Other than a bit of bush beating what sort of work do you do that you earn so little?

Opps just seen this? I don't work. I would rather reduce my costs. Spend my money on important things like beer and bikes.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 6 Jun 2017, 5:24pm

Boyd wrote:
pete75 wrote:
Boyd wrote:.3% will make no difference to people like me who live on £11,000 a year.


Other than a bit of bush beating what sort of work do you do that you earn so little?

Opps just seen this? I don't work. I would rather reduce my costs. Spend my money on important things like beer and bikes.


On the dole?

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mercalia » 6 Jun 2017, 9:10pm

pete75 wrote:
Boyd wrote:
pete75 wrote:
Other than a bit of bush beating what sort of work do you do that you earn so little?

Opps just seen this? I don't work. I would rather reduce my costs. Spend my money on important things like beer and bikes.


On the dole?


you dont get £11,000 pa on the dole - I think it is something like £75 pw? much less :( poor so and sos

If the unemployed got £11,000pa they would be sitting pretty :wink:

if you are frugal you can in some circumstances live on that comfortably
Last edited by mercalia on 6 Jun 2017, 9:20pm, edited 3 times in total.