** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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reohn2
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby reohn2 » 4 Jul 2018, 1:59pm

Flinders wrote:A GE involves a lot of other issues. To override a referendum on a specific issue, you have to have another referendum.

And with the knowledge the country has now and which was told lies about before the last one.

FWIW,I've heard a lot of people who voted out saying they've changed their mind knowing now what they didnt then.But I haven't heard any remainers claiming they'd vote out now.
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mr bajokoses
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mr bajokoses » 4 Jul 2018, 2:41pm

Who would lead campaigns on remain and leave sides?

What stance would the two main parties take?

Could the Tory party credibly stand for either remain or leave?

Labour party would have to get off the fence.

Ben@Forest
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Ben@Forest » 4 Jul 2018, 8:20pm

mr bajokoses wrote:
Ben@Forest wrote:We needed a competent party that always held a Eurosceptic line.

The chances of a Eurosceptic party being competent are slim to say the least.


And above comment demonstrates the antipathy that has characterised this whole debate. There is an intelligent and reasoned argument for not being part of the EU. To scorn that shows just why Brexit occurred and why the EU is facing an existential crisis.

thirdcrank
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby thirdcrank » 4 Jul 2018, 8:32pm

Ben@Forest wrote: ... And above comment demonstrates the antipathy that has characterised this whole debate. There is an intelligent and reasoned argument for not being part of the EU. To scorn that shows just why Brexit occurred and why the EU is facing an existential crisis.


Yup. Why pick on Leavers when there's little to choose between any party politicians?

stu1102
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby stu1102 » 4 Jul 2018, 8:48pm

'If Brexit were a business, everyone involved would have been sacked by now. Two years & massive amounts of money spent on it = no plan, no idea of where it's going, never mind how to get there. Imagine the Project Manager & team getting together this Friday to agree a plan. After 2 years


One thing that puzzles me about the no deal supporters of brexit is why they are so adamant that March 2019 is when we leave the EU, whenever I make a decision complex or otherwise I leave time to change my mind reflect, just as I would on my bike in plotting a route on a map, so I did a little bit of research on voters in the EU referendum

Image

first question was how many old people have died in 2years that voted leave, luckily for me somebody else got there before me:

Bluntly, older, mainly Leave, voters are dying – and younger, mainly Remain, voters are joining the electorate,’ expert says https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 71451.html

'Since the referendum around 1.2m electors have died, while 1.4m have joined the electorate. If we extrapolate from YouGov’s data from the youngest and oldest voters, and take account of variations in turnout by age, then I reckon that around 600,000 Leave voters, and 300,000 Remain voters have died; while 650,000 young Remainers and 150,000 Leave supporters have joined the voting population. Combine these figures, and these demographic factors have given us 350,000 extra Remain voters and 450,000 fewer Leave voters.
In the 2016 referendum, the 17.4m Leave voters outnumbered the 16.1m Remain voters by 1.3m. Demography has already reduced that lead by more than half. At this rate, Remain will take the lead by late next year, even if not one person changes their mind. Add in the second thoughts now apparent in some groups who voted Leave two years ago, there is a real prospect that a fresh referendum would reverse the decision that the electorate took last time.' https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blog ... -to-remain


next I looked at the 30 areas with the most elderly people that voted leave

Image



next I looked at the correlation between leave voters and the key voting characteristics of people that voted leave

Image

Image

Based on the above I have undertaken a modest amount of field research on two areas I know well:

Dudley and Mansfield

Based on that research and speaking to people in Dudley those who voted against Brexit of the people I know ( all decent people) are predominantly stuck in dead-end jobs or unemployed in Britain’s structural poverty areas. What came across to me was that the parents knew poor education and work opportunities for their children came with the territory. In essence they themselves were stuck, but feel powerless to create more opportunities for their children. So I looked a little deeper into Dudley and Mansfiled areas where the multi-millionaires of gove, mogg and 'Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson have never ventured. 'Born in New York City to wealthy upper-middle class English parents, Johnson was educated at the European School of Brussels, Ashdown House School, and Eton College. He studied Classics at Balliol College, Oxford, where he was elected president of the Oxford Union in 1986. He began his career in journalism at The Times but was sacked for falsifying a quotation' wikipedia


What I thought did Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson have in common with the people I met in Mansfield and Dudley
Last edited by stu1102 on 5 Jul 2018, 8:41pm, edited 1 time in total.

pwa
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pwa » 4 Jul 2018, 9:00pm

stu1102 wrote:'If Brexit were a business, everyone involved would have been sacked by now. Two years & massive amounts of money spent on it = no plan, no idea of where it's going, never mind how to get there. Imagine the Project Manager & team getting together this Friday to agree a plan. After 2 years


One thing that puzzles me about the no deal supporters of brexit is why they are so adamant that March 2019 is when we leave the EU, whenever I make a decision complex or otherwise I leave time to change my mind reflect, just as I would on my bike in plotting a route on a map, so I did a little bit of research on voters in the EU referendum

Image

first question was how many old people have died in 2years that voted leave, luckily for me somebody else got there before me:

Bluntly, older, mainly Leave, voters are dying – and younger, mainly Remain, voters are joining the electorate,’ expert says https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 71451.html

'Since the referendum around 1.2m electors have died, while 1.4m have joined the electorate. If we extrapolate from YouGov’s data from the youngest and oldest voters, and take account of variations in turnout by age, then I reckon that around 600,000 Leave voters, and 300,000 Remain voters have died; while 650,000 young Remainers and 150,000 Leave supporters have joined the voting population. Combine these figures, and these demographic factors have given us 350,000 extra Remain voters and 450,000 fewer Leave voters.
In the 2016 referendum, the 17.4m Leave voters outnumbered the 16.1m Remain voters by 1.3m. Demography has already reduced that lead by more than half. At this rate, Remain will take the lead by late next year, even if not one person changes their mind. Add in the second thoughts now apparent in some groups who voted Leave two years ago, there is a real prospect that a fresh referendum would reverse the decision that the electorate took last time.' https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blog ... -to-remain


next I looked at the 30 areas with the most elderly people that voted leave

Image

more to follwow


The Leave / Remain support has stayed remarkably static over two years, so Leave support is not dying away as you hoped. :lol:

Vorpal
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Vorpal » 4 Jul 2018, 11:33pm

The Electoral Commission has given advance notice to the affected parties; The Electoral Commission are expected to say that Vote Leave broke the law.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44704561
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom

PDQ Mobile
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby PDQ Mobile » 4 Jul 2018, 11:59pm

pwa wrote:
The Leave / Remain support has stayed remarkably static over two years, so Leave support is not dying away as you hoped. :lol:


Not dying away?
I thought the post you referred to suggested exactly the opposite. Pun intended! :shock:

PDQ Mobile
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby PDQ Mobile » 5 Jul 2018, 12:00am

Vorpal wrote:The Electoral Commission has given advance notice to the affected parties; The Electoral Commission are expected to say that Vote Leave broke the law.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44704561


Result is void then?

reohn2
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby reohn2 » 5 Jul 2018, 11:19am

PDQ Mobile wrote:
Vorpal wrote:The Electoral Commission has given advance notice to the affected parties; The Electoral Commission are expected to say that Vote Leave broke the law.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44704561


Result is void then?

It certainly should be if that's the case,however liars are hailed as hero's in this blue and septic isle......
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pwa
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pwa » 5 Jul 2018, 12:30pm

I remember the other side using my money (and yours) to send me Remain propaganda I didn't want, via the Government, so I don't feel anything the Leave people did in the way of spending can be half as crooked. Small discrepancies, if that is what it is, don't generally invoke severe consequences. My own experience was of getting a barrage of Remain propaganda and very little or nothing from Leave. It was David and Goliath.

Vorpal
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Vorpal » 5 Jul 2018, 1:04pm

pwa wrote:I remember the other side using my money (and yours) to send me Remain propaganda I didn't want, via the Government

??? Do you have a specific example? Are you sure it wasn't a campaign group?
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom

pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 5 Jul 2018, 1:52pm

PDQ Mobile wrote:
pwa wrote:
The Leave / Remain support has stayed remarkably static over two years, so Leave support is not dying away as you hoped. :lol:


Not dying away?
I thought the post you referred to suggested exactly the opposite. Pun intended! :shock:


You won't convince anyone who has fully bought into project complacency that views about Brexit will ever change nor that it may well have some ill effects on the country particularly those who voted leave not for rational reasons but out of a dislike of immigration - the we don't won't all these bloody foreigners coming here taking our jobs, drinking our beer, using our toilets etc brigade.

PDQ Mobile
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby PDQ Mobile » 5 Jul 2018, 4:23pm

pete75 wrote:
PDQ Mobile wrote:
pwa wrote:
The Leave / Remain support has stayed remarkably static over two years, so Leave support is not dying away as you hoped. :lol:


Not dying away?
I thought the post you referred to suggested exactly the opposite. Pun intended! :shock:


You won't convince anyone who has fully bought into project complacency that views about Brexit will ever change nor that it may well have some ill effects on the country particularly those who voted leave not for rational reasons but out of a dislike of immigration - the we don't won't all these bloody foreigners coming here taking our jobs, drinking our beer, using our toilets etc brigade.


Actually I am not sure if that is always correct.
Take "pwa" for example.
While he is clearly concerned about aspects of continued membership he has been an open and polite (yet passionate) debater.
I think he has much sympathy with the ideals of the EU but feels the immigration issue overides other considerations.

If I/we could just convince him of more of the benefits he also gets, he might look more favourably on continued membership in spite of being a pretty hardened "leaver".

In other words compromise will be required on all sides.

Mistik-ka
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Mistik-ka » 5 Jul 2018, 5:01pm

pete75 wrote: - the we don't won't all these bloody foreigners coming here taking our jobs, drinking our beer, using our toilets etc brigade.

My old Mum was on the barricades long before Brexit — she objected to construction of the Chunnel because it would result in hordes of foreign tourists thronging over "and wearing out all our monuments!"

On many other topics she was quite rational.