** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

[Psamathe]

I understand that some legal opinion ( reported some time ago ) reckoned we owe them nowt, so maybe not black and white

One problem is that if we leave paying nothing then the EU would obviously pay nothing towards incomplete started projects in the UK and UK euro MP pensions, so there would be a welter of court cases in various directions as Farage and others asked for legal rulings on who pays their pensions and companies working on EU-funded projects try to recover what they've paid out (as EU projects tend to pay in arrears - sometimes long in arrears).

I expect there's been some estimation that £39bn is cheaper than the court case costs + probable liabilities from court rulings + bad publicity from the UK government being seen as shafting UK businesses and euro MPs.

Plus it sends a very strong message to all those other countries supposedly desperate to do trade deals with that if we change our minds about arrangements we'll just walk away and not met our obligations and leave them "in the lurch". They'd thus have to only agree to arrangements on the basis the UK would renege and thus need deals so biased in their favour it would be of no use to us.

Ian

[Canuk]

Most of the above is moot - there's not going to be another referendum. It suits never labour .....

I'm unsure about that. Certainly it does not suit the Corbyn/McDonnell team but the membership (incl Momentum & unions) seem to be taking a very different view and it is now at the point where Corbyn/McDonnell have to decide if they are going to push the party their way or the way of the membership.

Ian

It's Party first all the way with labour. My old man was a Labour Councillor for 10 years, he would often say 'sod the membership'. Labour gagging for a chance at power (and the next few months are likely to be their best opportunity to snatch it, from the chaos of the next vote on Brexit). They want. GE to settle this and get into power. So no 2nd ref possibilities with Labour, and the revolt on the Tories side were there to be one - no chance with them either. With no deal looming it'll be clear to the British public that the current administration ain't up to the job. Corbyn should walk it.

Like I said it's moot. May won't get this through the vote in Parliament. All hell will break loose, pound plumnets, no confidence vote, foreign industry pulls the plug, leadership bid.. A General election is virtually set in stone. I say a GE before end of January. Put an end to all these warring factions and political infighting. After that it's the softest of soft Brexit or we're staying in.

[roubaixtuesday]

I say a GE before end of January. Put an end to all thess fractions and political infighting. After that it's the softest of soft Brexit or we're staying in.

I say GE is very unlikely. It's not in the interests of the Tory party or the DUP and until one of these breaks ranks a GE will not happen.

I also say a GE would make the infighting worse still as the most likely outcome would be as inconclusive as the current position.

But we're in unchartered waters, it's impossible to predict.

[Psamathe]

I think May has sunk (or is sinking) her own deal now. Seems she's decided on a "charm offensive" with the public. May and "charm offensive" in the same sentence? Saw the video of her recent phone in

At end of a question after May's long waffle
Interviewer (to caller): Michael, has the Prime Minister actually answered your question?
Michael: No

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8ys8aGwkUo

Ian

[Psamathe]

Most of the above is moot - there's not going to be another referendum. It suits never labour .....

I'm unsure about that. Certainly it does not suit the Corbyn/McDonnell team but the membership (incl Momentum & unions) seem to be taking a very different view and it is now at the point where Corbyn/McDonnell have to decide if they are going to push the party their way or the way of the membership.

Ian

It's Party first all the way with labour. My old man was a Labour Councillor for 10 years, he would often say 'sod the membership'. Labour gagging for a chance at power (and the next few months are likely to be their best opportunity to snatch it, from the chaos of the next vote on Brexit). They want. GE to settle this and get into power. So no 2nd ref possibilities with Labour, and the revolt on the Tories side were there to be one - no chance with them either. With no deal looming it'll be clear to the British public that the current administration ain't up to the job. Corbyn should walk it.
......

I see the sticking point is that, whilst I'm not sure about Corbyn "walking it, many Conservative MPs will agree with you and they will be needed to vote to get a GE due to the Fixed Term Parliament Act. And if they believe Corbyn stands a chance of "walking it" there is no way they'll vote to have a GE. and the fixed Term Parliaments Act prevents a substantive motion being attached to a confidence vote - so in reality it has to be a separate vote only on confidence.

And maybe the DUP will believe Corbyn's chances of "walking-in" so whilst they might vote against May's EU deal they would probably support the conservatives in a confidence motion.

Ian

[mercalia]

I think May has sunk (or is sinking) her own deal now. Seems she's decided on a "charm offensive" with the public. May and "charm offensive" in the same sentence? Saw the video of her recent phone in

At end of a question after May's long waffle
Interviewer (to caller): Michael, has the Prime Minister actually answered your question?
Michael: No

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8ys8aGwkUo

Ian

yes incongruous - and with a sting in the tail - my deal or back to square one. She should have been working on a number of options. most people dont like to be backed into a corner?
Atleast we know how the EU thinks, we owe that to Mrs May. "Give use the money and our backstop terms and we will consider . maybe, some other time a trade deal" most people thought that Brexit deal was a trade deal? 2 years to achieve what? not a alot? Mrs Mays main fault is she isnt a visionary, just a plodder and the EU have played her? That no trade deal could be achieved says a lot? it wont happen without serious losses for the UK. No wonder Junker says it is the best deal possible ( for the EU )

[roubaixtuesday]

Atleast we know how the EU thinks, we owe that to Mrs May. "Give use the money and our backstop terms and we will consider . maybe, some other time a trade deal" most people thought that Brexit deal was a trade deal? 2 years to achieve what? not a alot? Mrs Mays main fault is she isnt a visionary, just a plodder and the EU have played her?

The continued belief that the problems with Brexit are the fault of something or someone else would be amusing if they weren't a key part of dragging the country into this mess.

A "visionary" leader would still has to face the same fundamental realities:

1. The EU is more powerful than we are, being 10x larger.
2. We are much, much more dependent on them than they are on us.
3. They are very clear about what they want, and are united in it.

The only reason we have such a good deal on offer is that it is in the EU's interests for Britain to be successful. The last thing they need is a basket case on their doorstep. The "deal" is in fact the EU's judgement as to where this balance lies. They have all the power and can impose on us pretty much what they want to.

This was obvious right from the very start. No amount of "vision" will change it.

[Psamathe]

.... most people thought that Brexit deal was a trade deal?....

Never was going to be a Trade Deal. EU rules always meant these Article 50 negotiations could not be a Trade Deal. EU rules are clear that a member state cannot negotiate trade deals (and the UK is still a member state). Those who thought it was were probably misled by Davis (and other Leave campaigners) who also didn't understand the very clear rules even after the referendum had taken place (so he was campaigning based on his complete lack of understanding of a very clear EU rule).

David Davies (July 2016): I would expect the new Prime Minister on September 9th to immediately trigger a large round of global trade deals with all our most favoured trade partners. I would expect that the negotiation phase of most of them to be concluded within between 12 and 24 months. 

So within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU. Trade deals with the US and China alone will give us a trade area almost twice the size of the EU, and of course we will also be seeking deals with Hong Kong, Canada, Australia, India, Japan, the UAE, Indonesia – and many others.

Ian

[bovlomov]

Mrs Mays main fault is she isnt a visionary, just a plodder and the EU have played her?

May could hardly have done a worse job. She submitted Article 50 without having a plan ready. She drew a load of arbitrary red lines, interpreting the vote to be something that was neither written on the ballot paper nor promised by Leave campaigners. She used the most insulting and divisive language, conspiring to turn Brexit into a culture war. She seems not to be remotely bothered about the opinions even of Leave voters, let alone Remain voters, or the disenfranchised UK citizens abroad and EU citizens here. And she has lied. And lied. And lied.

May doesn't strike me as an evil person, but her behaviour has been truly dreadful. The Maybot characterisation has hit home because she really does seem devoid of human feeling and empathy. Unfortunate at a time when, domestically and internationally, sensitivity would go such a long way.

[Psamathe]

Mrs Mays main fault is she isnt a visionary, just a plodder and the EU have played her?

May could hardly have done a worse job. She submitted Article 50 without having a plan ready. She drew a load of arbitrary red lines, interpreting the vote to be something that was neither written on the ballot paper nor promised by Leave campaigners. She used the most insulting and divisive language, conspiring to turn Brexit into a culture war. She seems not to be remotely bothered about the opinions even of Leave voters, let alone Remain voters, or the disenfranchised UK citizens abroad and EU citizens here. And she has lied. And lied. And lied.

May doesn't strike me as an evil person, but her behaviour has been truly dreadful. The Maybot characterisation has hit home because she really does seem devoid of human feeling and empathy. Unfortunate at a time when, domestically and internationally, sensitivity would go such a long way.

+1 (phrased far better than I would have managed)

Ian

[mercalia]

Atleast we know how the EU thinks, we owe that to Mrs May. "Give use the money and our backstop terms and we will consider . maybe, some other time a trade deal" most people thought that Brexit deal was a trade deal? 2 years to achieve what? not a alot? Mrs Mays main fault is she isnt a visionary, just a plodder and the EU have played her?

The continued belief that the problems with Brexit are the fault of something or someone else would be amusing if they weren't a key part of dragging the country into this mess.

A "visionary" leader would still has to face the same fundamental realities:

1. The EU is more powerful than we are, being 10x larger.
2. We are much, much more dependent on them than they are on us.
3. They are very clear about what they want, and are united in it.

The only reason we have such a good deal on offer is that it is in the EU's interests for Britain to be successful. The last thing they need is a basket case on their doorstep. The "deal" is in fact the EU's judgement as to where this balance lies. They have all the power and can impose on us pretty much what they want to.

This was obvious right from the very start. No amount of "vision" will change it.

well I am glad you were not on the negotiating team ( hmm or maybe you were? )
The shape of things to come?
Macron's blunt Brexit warning to UK over fishing
"Alongside the withdrawal agreement, and the political declaration on future ties, the remaining 27 EU leaders published a separate statement (without the UK) that vowed to protect their own interests, on a range of issues from fishing to fair competition to the rights of citizens. "
They want to nobble the UK with any trade deal to make sure we dont get any advantage from being outside the EU? ( and I dont mean access to the EU either)
""The European Council," it said, "will demonstrate particular vigilance as regards safeguarding the rights and interests of citizens, the necessity to maintain ambitious level playing field conditions, and to protect fishing enterprises and coastal communities.""
Maybe we need to wake up to the possibility that there will be no deal re the EU that will be any good and might as well bite the bullet. Mrs May is incapable of doing that so a new leader is needed ( she is an appeaser)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46336962

[pete75]

I understand that some legal opinion ( reported some time ago ) reckoned we owe them nowt, so maybe not black and white

One problem is that if we leave paying nothing then the EU would obviously pay nothing towards incomplete started projects in the UK and UK euro MP pensions, so there would be a welter of court cases in various directions as Farage and others asked for legal rulings on who pays their pensions and companies working on EU-funded projects try to recover what they've paid out (as EU projects tend to pay in arrears - sometimes long in arrears).

I expect there's been some estimation that £39bn is cheaper than the court case costs + probable liabilities from court rulings + bad publicity from the UK government being seen as shafting UK businesses and euro MPs.

What delicious irony.Farage and his cohorts who think we should pay no leaving bill taking the UK government to court because the EU refused to pay their pensions. Of course the UK government will have no liability, UK courts will have no authority to make the EU pay and a further irony is Farge will have to go to the hated EU court to get his money. Like much related to Brexit you couldn't make it up.

[mercalia]

I understand that some legal opinion ( reported some time ago ) reckoned we owe them nowt, so maybe not black and white

One problem is that if we leave paying nothing then the EU would obviously pay nothing towards incomplete started projects in the UK and UK euro MP pensions, so there would be a welter of court cases in various directions as Farage and others asked for legal rulings on who pays their pensions and companies working on EU-funded projects try to recover what they've paid out (as EU projects tend to pay in arrears - sometimes long in arrears).

I expect there's been some estimation that £39bn is cheaper than the court case costs + probable liabilities from court rulings + bad publicity from the UK government being seen as shafting UK businesses and euro MPs.

What delicious irony.Farage and his cohorts who think we should pay no leaving bill taking the UK government to court because the EU refused to pay their pensions. Of course the UK government will have no liability, UK courts will have no authority to make the EU pay and a further irony is Farge will have to go to the hated EU court to get his money. Like much related to Brexit you couldn't make it up.

wrong section? I think should be put in funniest clean joke...?

[roubaixtuesday]

she is an appeaser

No amount of howling at the moon changes the basic facts.

The leave campaign and leave voters chose to put us in a weak position as a nation.

The leave campaign and leave voters should take responsibility for that. Trying to blame May entirely misses the point.

[Canuk]

I'm not saying a General Election is the preferred option for either Labour or the Tories, I'm saying it's an inevitable event given the 'end times Brexit scenario' we're in. There's so much piling on, all at once that no administration could survive it. Leastwise the propped up, beggaring belief, wafer thin majority, frankly inept and creaking Tories. It will only take one hole in dam and they're done for. And there are dozens of potential weak spots in their armour.

A GE by the end of January. If May's government wasn't in such a ludicrously precarious position, and the reality of a no deal Brexit so close and tangible she might survive till March. But when she loses both votes in the house (almost a given), this current administration is at its end. There's no back stop for the Tories, not when you've got both toes on the cliff edge.