** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by roubaixtuesday »

mjr wrote:I wouldn't rule out Parliament instructing May to withdraw A50 at the last minute, instead of passing her deal.


I think that so unlikely as to be inconceivable. Most MPs feel bound by the referendum vote and would not withdraw without a 2nd vote. Plus the Tory party would be whipped to support govt. I'd rate this possibility as 1000/1.

May's stance should change because several of her red lines are based on her own personal hobby-horses and directly contradict what Vote Leave campaigned on.


My prediction is of what will happen, not what should happen. A "May's deal or remain" referendum is what should happen, IMV.
PDQ Mobile
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by PDQ Mobile »

pwa wrote:It is obvious to nearly everyone outside Parliament that with the current political battle lines as they are, Parliament cannot move forward on this. The lines have to change to enable any progress. And that means crossing party lines. Some noses need to be held.

May will have to give on the issue of a customs union. That makes the Irish border issue easier to deal with and satisfies some of Labour's wants. It will outrage a good number in her own party but she has to take that risk. It is not as though Bojo and others have an alternative that could get a Commons majority.

Can anyone explain to me why a Customs union is such a difficult thing?
The benefits seem to be manifold for everybody.
Good for trade, good for Ireland.
And freedom of movement becomes a UK controlled issue?
Ps have to go out so answer be slow.
roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by roubaixtuesday »

PDQ Mobile wrote:Can anyone explain to me why a Customs union is such a difficult thing?
The benefits seem to be manifold for everybody.
Good for trade, good for Ireland.
And freedom of movement becomes a UK controlled issue?
Ps have to go out so answer be slow.


Countries inside a customs union all honour the same trade terms with third parties.

That means we can't set our own trade terms with Canada, for instance, but are tied to the same deal (CETA) that the EU has.

Thus it means our external trade is not on our own terms, but on those of the EU.

[it's another matter entirely whether this is actually a bad thing or not. It's arguable, but probably net beneficial, as the EU will get better terms overall than we could, but less customised to our specific needs]
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horizon
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by horizon »

PDQ Mobile wrote:Can anyone explain to me why a Customs union is such a difficult thing?


You have to abide by the rules of the customs union which means that you cannot make your own trade deals with other countries. I'm fully in agreement with the Leave position on this: I know lots of Leave voters (there's old Mr Hodges from down the road for example and Shirley from the dental practice) who are aching to get their own trade deals going with China and the US and cannot do this in a customs union. Staying in a customs union would be a major betrayal of the millions of ordinary Leave voters desperate to turn their lives around and set up trade deals. Nearly every Leave voter I have spoken to (Mrs Parkinson from the bakers who has a disabled husband also comes to mind) have said the main reason they voted Leave was to exit the customs union and strike their own trade deals across the world. This is a Red Line that I'm afraid should not and cannot be crossed - we owe it to our democracy and the people of Britain not to let them down over this vital issue: the people voted and we should respect their choice.
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Canuk
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by Canuk »

roubaixtuesday wrote:A prediction:

May will continue delaying as long as possible to force a final “my deal or no deal” vote. She will succeed.

Here’s how it will play out:

There is no majority in parliament for any specific proposal. May’s deal remains the only thing agreed with the EU. She will not rule out “no deal” because her lunatic fringe will then support a labour vote of no confidence. She will likewise not soften her red lines, as that will merely lose her yet more hardline Tory support.

If parliament does not pass anything ahead of 29th March, then on 28th March May re-presents her plan. It’s “my deal or no deal” time – deal passes as no deal is far, far worse.

I predict May’s deal will go through, despite the fact it would never have won a referendum vote against remain, and despite there being a huge majority against it in parliament. It’s the will of the people, dontcha know.

She will then resign, Tory leadership contest to follow, potentially GE if the DUP have a strop at that point after having the backstop agreement foisted on them.


May has already held the gun to her head and said 'If you don't vote with me I'll pull the trigger'.

Parliament has just said emphatically, go ahead.

May can't tweak this deal enough to bring back 230 votes. I reckon one more big defeat and the government has to go. General election has been whispered in her ear this very morning by the whips. I don't think she'll get much more opportunity to run down the clock. Another vote of no confidence next week, after she brings no change to the deal on Monday.

Admit it, they're done for. And probably Brexit too.
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mjr
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by mjr »

roubaixtuesday wrote:
mjr wrote:I wouldn't rule out Parliament instructing May to withdraw A50 at the last minute, instead of passing her deal.


I think that so unlikely as to be inconceivable. Most MPs feel bound by the referendum vote and would not withdraw without a 2nd vote. Plus the Tory party would be whipped to support govt. I'd rate this possibility as 1000/1.

If the motion makes clear that this is to give time to negotiate a better Brexit, then I don't think it would be beyond the bounds of the referendum vote. Plus Tory party whipping has limits: it didn't get May's deal through this week. If someone was really offering 1000/1, I might be tempted to break my usual gambling ban.

roubaixtuesday wrote:Countries inside a customs union all honour the same trade terms with third parties.

That means we can't set our own trade terms with Canada, for instance, but are tied to the same deal (CETA) that the EU has.

Thus it means our external trade is not on our own terms, but on those of the EU.

But as we've been a member of the EU to date, the EU's terms are currently our terms.

[it's another matter entirely whether this is actually a bad thing or not. It's arguable, but probably net beneficial, as the EU will get better terms overall than we could, but less customised to our specific needs]

Indeed - the challenge would be ensuring that the EU's terms remain our terms when we no longer have our current democratic involvement.
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roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by roubaixtuesday »

Canuk wrote:
roubaixtuesday wrote:A prediction:

May will continue delaying as long as possible to force a final “my deal or no deal” vote. She will succeed.

Here’s how it will play out:

There is no majority in parliament for any specific proposal. May’s deal remains the only thing agreed with the EU. She will not rule out “no deal” because her lunatic fringe will then support a labour vote of no confidence. She will likewise not soften her red lines, as that will merely lose her yet more hardline Tory support.

If parliament does not pass anything ahead of 29th March, then on 28th March May re-presents her plan. It’s “my deal or no deal” time – deal passes as no deal is far, far worse.

I predict May’s deal will go through, despite the fact it would never have won a referendum vote against remain, and despite there being a huge majority against it in parliament. It’s the will of the people, dontcha know.

She will then resign, Tory leadership contest to follow, potentially GE if the DUP have a strop at that point after having the backstop agreement foisted on them.


May has already held the gun to her head and said 'If you don't vote with me I'll pull the trigger'.

Parliament has just said emphatically, go ahead.

May can't tweak this deal enough to bring back 230 votes. I reckon one more big defeat and the government has to go. General election has been whispered in her ear this very morning by the whips. I don't think she'll get much more opportunity to run down the clock. Another vote of no confidence next week, after she brings no change to the deal on Monday.

Admit it, they're done for. And probably Brexit too.


Well, I wish you were right. But what you actually seem to suggest as a mechanism for this is the loss of a vote of no confidence. Which Tory or DUP MPs are going to vote against her and why? She won the vote by 19, so you need ten of them to switch.
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by mjr »

horizon wrote:
PDQ Mobile wrote:Can anyone explain to me why a Customs union is such a difficult thing?


You have to abide by the rules of the customs union which means that you cannot make your own trade deals with other countries. I'm fully in agreement with the Leave position on this: I know lots of Leave voters (there's old Mr Hodges from down the road for example and Shirley from the dental practice) who are aching to get their own trade deals going with China and the US and cannot do this in a customs union. Staying in a customs union would be a major betrayal of the millions of ordinary Leave voters desperate to turn their lives around and set up trade deals. Nearly every Leave voter I have spoken to (Mrs Parkinson from the bakers who has a disabled husband also comes to mind) have said the main reason they voted Leave was to exit the customs union and strike their own trade deals across the world. This is a Red Line that I'm afraid should not and cannot be crossed - we owe it to our democracy and the people of Britain not to let them down over this vital issue: the people voted and we should respect their choice.

Don't they realise that the Hodges household, the dental practice and the bakers will be kept captive in the United Kingdom Customs Union even after EU exit? It sounds like they need to push for a UK exit, but the UK government has in the past taken a dim view of such attempts, sometimes resorting to armed occupation, which is further than the EU has ever gone.
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roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by roubaixtuesday »

mjr wrote:
roubaixtuesday wrote:
mjr wrote:I wouldn't rule out Parliament instructing May to withdraw A50 at the last minute, instead of passing her deal.


I think that so unlikely as to be inconceivable. Most MPs feel bound by the referendum vote and would not withdraw without a 2nd vote. Plus the Tory party would be whipped to support govt. I'd rate this possibility as 1000/1.

If the motion makes clear that this is to give time to negotiate a better Brexit, then I don't think it would be beyond the bounds of the referendum vote. Plus Tory party whipping has limits: it didn't get May's deal through this week. If someone was really offering 1000/1, I might be tempted to break my usual gambling ban.


You can get 8/1

I wouldn't touch that with a bargepole.
PDQ Mobile
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by PDQ Mobile »

horizon wrote:
PDQ Mobile wrote:Can anyone explain to me why a Customs union is such a difficult thing?


You have to abide by the rules of the customs union which means that you cannot make your own trade deals with other countries. I'm fully in agreement with the Leave position on this: I know lots of Leave voters (there's old Mr Hodges from down the road for example and Shirley from the dental practice) who are aching to get their own trade deals going with China and the US and cannot do this in a customs union. Staying in a customs union would be a major betrayal of the millions of ordinary Leave voters desperate to turn their lives around and set up trade deals. Nearly every Leave voter I have spoken to (Mrs Parkinson from the bakers who has a disabled husband also comes to mind) have said the main reason they voted Leave was to exit the customs union and strike their own trade deals across the world. This is a Red Line that I'm afraid should not and cannot be crossed - we owe it to our democracy and the people of Britain not to let them down over this vital issue: the people voted and we should respect their choice.

But we do trade with the rest of the world already?
Are our old agreements with say NZ, in any way different than they were before we entered the customs union?
Or does the EU abide by those old UK trading terms.
Most of our trade is with the EU?
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horizon
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by horizon »

We trade with the rest of the world on EU terms (which are pretty good). But the pesky EU might say, "sorry chums, that beef you want to import comes from cows reared in appalling conditions!" To which the canny Brexiters say, "don't worry we'll just put all those annoying regulations on the bonfire once we get out of the EU heh, heh, heh!"

That's basically what "our own trade deals" means. The ordinary man-in-the-street is clueless about this, fed as he is on a daily diet of Sun and Mail (far worse than what US cows are fed on).
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by kwackers »

horizon wrote:You have to abide by the rules of the customs union which means that you cannot make your own trade deals with other countries. I'm fully in agreement with the Leave position on this: I know lots of Leave voters (there's old Mr Hodges from down the road for example and Shirley from the dental practice) who are aching to get their own trade deals going with China and the US and cannot do this in a customs union. Staying in a customs union would be a major betrayal of the millions of ordinary Leave voters desperate to turn their lives around and set up trade deals. Nearly every Leave voter I have spoken to (Mrs Parkinson from the bakers who has a disabled husband also comes to mind) have said the main reason they voted Leave was to exit the customs union and strike their own trade deals across the world. This is a Red Line that I'm afraid should not and cannot be crossed - we owe it to our democracy and the people of Britain not to let them down over this vital issue: the people voted and we should respect their choice.

How can they strike their "own" deals?

By making their "own" deals I assume they mean having the government change the terms of trade - because that's all it means.
You can't "make your own" deals. If you're in the radar you can only trade according to the current terms that have been negotiated.
If there is no negotiation then the default trading terms are WTO - if they weren't what would be the point of the WTO???

Someone somewhere will determine the tariffs and it won't be them...
Canuk
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by Canuk »

I don't think anyone in the Tory party sees surviving the no confidence vote by 19 votes a 'victory', its just a temporary reprieve. Until the next one, or the one after that.

The absolute bottom line is that May just cannot bring a better deal to the table come Monday, when she is tabled to do so. Something has to give here, and it irrefutably won't be the EU. That's surely been thoroughly put to bed. There's no more deals to be done, Brexit is a lost cause with this administration at least. Europe just ain't for budging, after such a significant defeat, why would they?

So what's left? More no confidence votes. Until the Tory rebels and the DUP say enough is enough. Sod it. There's 200 years of parliamentary precedent at stake, which is really are the rules by which Westminster governs itself. If a sitting government consistently loses votes in the house (as May's government is destined to do), they'll just fold. You could see it on Gove's face yesterday. He knows the end is nigh. It's just a matter of time.

Like I've said earlier, the Fixed Term Parliament act wasn't designed to uphold a zombie government like this, another vote or two lost and the humiliation will be so complete the dam will burst.

Something has got to give. And when it does, step back..
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by PDQ Mobile »

horizon wrote:We trade with the rest of the world on EU terms (which are pretty good). But the pesky EU might say, "sorry chums, that beef you want to import comes from cows reared in appalling conditions!" To which the canny Brexiters say, "don't worry we'll just put all those annoying regulations on the bonfire once we get out of the EU heh, heh, heh!"


Sounds like better in then, to me.
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mr bajokoses
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by mr bajokoses »

horizon wrote:
PDQ Mobile wrote:Can anyone explain to me why a Customs union is such a difficult thing?


You have to abide by the rules of the customs union which means that you cannot make your own trade deals with other countries. I'm fully in agreement with the Leave position on this: I know lots of Leave voters (there's old Mr Hodges from down the road for example and Shirley from the dental practice) who are aching to get their own trade deals going with China and the US and cannot do this in a customs union. Staying in a customs union would be a major betrayal of the millions of ordinary Leave voters desperate to turn their lives around and set up trade deals. Nearly every Leave voter I have spoken to (Mrs Parkinson from the bakers who has a disabled husband also comes to mind) have said the main reason they voted Leave was to exit the customs union and strike their own trade deals across the world. This is a Red Line that I'm afraid should not and cannot be crossed - we owe it to our democracy and the people of Britain not to let them down over this vital issue: the people voted and we should respect their choice.


I'm sure your tongue was firmly in your cheek, but are you sure those lovely folk weren't talking about immigration rather than a customs union? It's easy to mix the two up.
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