roubaixtuesday wrote:A prediction:
May will continue delaying as long as possible to force a final “my deal or no deal” vote. She will succeed.
Here’s how it will play out:
There is no majority in parliament for any specific proposal. May’s deal remains the only thing agreed with the EU. She will not rule out “no deal” because her lunatic fringe will then support a labour vote of no confidence. She will likewise not soften her red lines, as that will merely lose her yet more hardline Tory support.
If parliament does not pass anything ahead of 29th March, then on 28th March May re-presents her plan. It’s “my deal or no deal” time – deal passes as no deal is far, far worse.
I predict May’s deal will go through, despite the fact it would never have won a referendum vote against remain, and despite there being a huge majority against it in parliament. It’s the will of the people, dontcha know.
She will then resign, Tory leadership contest to follow, potentially GE if the DUP have a strop at that point after having the backstop agreement foisted on them.
May has already held the gun to her head and said 'If you don't vote with me I'll pull the trigger'.
Parliament has just said emphatically, go ahead.
May can't tweak this deal enough to bring back 230 votes. I reckon one more big defeat and the government has to go. General election has been whispered in her ear this very morning by the whips. I don't think she'll get much more opportunity to run down the clock. Another vote of no confidence next week, after she brings no change to the deal on Monday.
Admit it, they're done for. And probably Brexit too.