** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

[mercalia]

so the next vote is Jan 29th. Does Mrs May play poker or some other similar game? I can see some civil servant hovering with a finger on the cancel A50 button on march 29th like people do on buying stuff on Ebay putting in their bid in the last 10 seconds?

[Canuk]

If either an A50 extension, a no 'no-deal' or a 2nd ref are tabled next week and any one of those gets a positive outcome on the 29th January, then its curtains for Brexit in 2019, and probably never.

My 8/1 on no Brexit this year is pretty safe money I reckon. May has tried to hold a gun to parliaments head over a no deal, and parliament has just emphatically said 'go ahead, pull the trigger', which of course she can't. And never could. Bluff called, threat evaporated. No more ammunition left.

Treating Parliament with contempt like this was bound to result in the aforementioned result. And it won't be altered by any daft 'tweaking' she might come up with in the next fortnight. It's obvious the EU just won't budge. Why would they. They hold all the cards, and can plainly see the poor hand that exists this side of the deal.

May should go now. Followed in quick succession by a GE and then a 2nd ref later in the year, or more likely early next year. Brexit, I'm afraid, as you were sold it, has been sold out from under you. Its a dead man walking deal. For this year anyway.

[horizon]

In a further development, a poll conducted by YouGov of more than 1,000 voters on Wednesday found 56% would now vote to stay in the EU, against 44% who want to leave.

They also said:

Against the prime minister’s deal, remain led by 65% to 35%, while against no-deal was 59% to 41% in favour of staying in the EU.

Staggering figures.

[bovlomov]

In a further development, a poll conducted by YouGov of more than 1,000 voters on Wednesday found 56% would now vote to stay in the EU, against 44% who want to leave.

They also said:

Against the prime minister’s deal, remain led by 65% to 35%, while against no-deal was 59% to 41% in favour of staying in the EU.

Staggering figures.

Yes. It's staggering that 44% still want to leave, given that almost everything that was promised has proved to be fantasy. Some of those will be people who have other reasons for wanting to leave, but many will be suffering from what's known as 'escalation of commitment'. They won't be changing their minds, however bad things get.

[Canuk]

In a further development, a poll conducted by YouGov of more than 1,000 voters on Wednesday found 56% would now vote to stay in the EU, against 44% who want to leave.

They also said:

Against the prime minister’s deal, remain led by 65% to 35%, while against no-deal was 59% to 41% in favour of staying in the EU.

Staggering figures.

Yes. It's staggering that 44% still want to leave, given that almost everything that was promised has proved to be fantasy. Some of those will be people who have other reasons for wanting to leave, but many will be suffering from what's known as 'escalation of commitment'. They won't be changing their minds, however bad things get.

Thats slightly more than the 4% swing from 2016 leave to remain versus 2019 in my poll. Brexit (if it ever happens) and a 2nd referendum are a long way off, in all likelihood next year. Which is only common sense. It was stark staring optimisim assisted lunacy to imagine an issue this fundamentally complex could be resolved in just over 2 years.

Any extension to A50, IMO is the death knell for Brexit. An extension, given May's stupid 'ransom note' vote on Tuesday night is now virtually priced in. The pound has risen a solid one percent today on the force of the defeat. The markets can smell No Brexit. Long before the politicians or the electorate can.

I expect the EU to weigh in with a sucker punch over the weekend, along the lines of 'take it or leave it, we ain't budging', which will mean another heavy, humiliating defeat for May should she try and tweak her useless, unloved and unworkable deal.

Things are very fluid, and a lot of amendments will be tabled next week for the next round of critical voting on the 29h January, chief among them a 2nd ref vote for all MPs to decide. Should a no confidence vote be tabled then, I can't see any way out for May. Roll on 2020.

[Oldjohnw]

A member of the House of Lords sings in my choral society and we happen to sit together. Tonight, just back from London, he told me he understood that although Corbyn had banned Labour MPs from meeting with Tory MPs to look for a way forward, in support of his own refusal to meet with May, MPs such as Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper and David Lammy would ignore him.

There are probably enough moderate MPs on all sides to form a significant coalition.

We'll see.

[mercalia]

so just as May is controlled by her right wing brexit-eers so Corbyn by some of his front bench who fear losing their jobs as mps.

"But the Guardian has contacted several senior shadow ministers from constituencies that voted to leave the EU who say they would consider their positions if Corbyn conceded to pressure to back a second referendum.

One said: “I would be in a really difficult position if we backed a second referendum. I would have little choice but to stand down if I was to have any hope of retaining my seat and representing my constituents.”"


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/17/corbyn-could-face-string-of-resignations-if-he-backs-peoples-vote

are they any better?

[horizon]

[q

Should a no confidence vote be tabled then, I can't see any way out for May.

Michael Portillo suggested tonight (BBC1) that a softer Brexit could emerge and that could carry the day. If TM accepted the customs union she would walk it with Labour MPs. The DUP seem convinced that she won't give way so in that sense she is bringing the house down on herself. As I said above, all hinges now on the attempt to stop No Deal.

[Debs]

A member of the House of Lords sings in my choral society and we happen to sit together. Tonight, just back from London, he told me he understood that although Corbyn had banned Labour MPs from meeting with Tory MPs to look for a way forward, in support of his own refusal to meet with May, MPs such as Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper and David Lammy would ignore him.

There are probably enough moderate MPs on all sides to form a significant coalition.

We'll see.

Aren't Ben, Cooper, and Lammy all ardent Remainers?

Sounds more like a significant confrontation!

[Canuk]

Over 100 Tory MPs voted against May to get rid of her, the same 100 MPs just voted to keep her (and themselves) clinging on by their finger nails to power.

As Lenin said that is the kind of support 'a rope gives to a hanged man /woman'

[Canuk]

It seems even the grail of Brexit cannot beat the Reaper, nor the maternity ward. Saturday 19th of January marks a polar shift in the statistics of its voters.

Enough old leavers will have died and enough young remainers will have come on to the electoral register to turn the dial on what the country thinks about Brexit.

The psephologist and founding YouGov president, Peter Kellner, calculates that the leave vote has been declining by about 1,350 a day, since 2016, taking into account the differential turnout: the young turn out to vote much less often than the old. He's used exactly the same turn out models from 2016 to come up with this Saturday as the day the country finally flips Remain, if voting patterns were similar (which after 2 and a half years of political carnage and stuttering chaos, defeats, is unlikely).

We need a new poll. If leavers are so confident of a re run of 2016 and a win, what have they got to be running scared about?

[Oldjohnw]

Oldjohnw wrote:
A member of the House of Lords sings in my choral society and we happen to sit together. Tonight, just back from London, he told me he understood that although Corbyn had banned Labour MPs from meeting with Tory MPs to look for a way forward, in support of his own refusal to meet with May, MPs such as Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper and David Lammy would ignore him.

There are probably enough moderate MPs on all sides to form a significant coalition.

We'll see.


Aren't Ben, Cooper, and Lammy all ardent Remainers?

Sounds more like a significant confrontation!

I would have thought that a grouping or remainers or at least those wanting a softer deal from both sides was a coalition.

[mjr]

A member of the House of Lords sings in my choral society and we happen to sit together. Tonight, just back from London, he told me he understood that although Corbyn had banned Labour MPs from meeting with Tory MPs to look for a way forward, in support of his own refusal to meet with May, MPs such as Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper and David Lammy would ignore him.

There are probably enough moderate MPs on all sides to form a significant coalition.

We'll see.

Benn and Cooper were on the news earlier in the evening yesterday leaving Whitehall meetings, so that's not really a prediction. I'd also not seen any hint that Corbyn banned such meetings (which would be daft because he'd struggle to enforce it).

[Oldjohnw]

prediction. I'd also not seen any hint that Corbyn banned such meetings (which would be daft because he'd struggle to enforce it).

]https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/17/jeremy-corbyn-faces-split-defiant-labour-mps-discuss-deal-ministers/

and

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/101182/theresa-may-hits-out-jeremy

The fact you are unaware of Corbyn's ruling doesn't mean it didn't happen. I agree that such a ruling is stupid - and desparate - because it cannot be enforced. Corbyn and May are two of a kind.

[djnotts]

"Enough old leavers will have died and enough young remainers will have come on to the electoral register to turn the dial on what the country thinks about Brexit."

AND this old Remainer is still alive! By and large the more intelligent and better off and thus more likely to be Remainers at any age live longer than the Leave simple minded cannon fodder, so the figures might be skewed even further!