** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

[PH]

Brexit: Amber Rudd says she is committed to avoiding no deal

Cabinet Minister Amber Rudd has told the BBC she is "committed to making sure we avoid" a no deal Brexit and would not rule out resigning over it.

That should get them back to the negotiating table
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46991042

Yet the only alternative she sees to No Deal is May's deal...
She wants to delay Brexit, but not negotiate anything else, how does she think we'll be in a better position at the end of the year?

[Canuk]

You can wish all you want for a 230 vote swing next Tuesday, but you know that's a complete fantasy. Yvette Coopers A50 extension on the other hand will pass.

Once you've extended A50 once, the public will get used to further extensions which the EU will be only too happy to oblige. The whole thing kicked down the road till no one could care less about it, and the architects of it long gone off the political face of the earth. All the EU has to do is encourage the procrastination process, its already run out of steam. In a years time people will have forgotten about a daft vote, a moment of madness that happened 4 years ago.

I'm a believer all right, in the above. I got 8/1 on it before Xmas. You believe your 230 vote swing fantasy all you want. But in your heart, you know there's no escape from reality. (Thanks Queen!) Easy come, easy go.

[mercalia]

joke of the day
BBC considers setting up international base in Belgium after Brexit

well wont need to change the name?


Belgium Broadcasting Corporation

Let them pay the TV licence fee
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/24/bbc-international-hq-belgium-brexit-netherlands-ireland-eu

[thirdcrank]

In the two important divisions, I'd not anticipate any significant swing.
TM's deal, be that Plan A, B, or C will be defeated.
A vote of No Confidence in the govt., will be defeated.

[PH]

I'm a believer all right, in the above. I got 8/1 on it before Xmas.

And yet you started a poll of doom that had no such option, and dismissed any notion of adding one. How you've changed your tune.
Now you now seem to believe it'll all quietly go away and be forgotten, that's pure fantasy.
I've asked if you have any serious evidence to support your theory, still waiting.

You believe your 230 vote swing fantasy all you want.

I don't even know what that means? What swing? To make any progress a good proportion of that vote has to agree on something other than rejecting May's deal.

the public will get used to further extensions which the EU will be only too happy to oblige

This only exists in your head, why would the EU support that? They've said they wouldn't.

[Canuk]

I'm a believer all right, in the above. I got 8/1 on it before Xmas.

And yet you started a poll of doom that had no such option, and dismissed any notion of adding one. How you've changed your tune.
Now you now seem to believe it'll all quietly go away and be forgotten, that's pure fantasy.
I've asked if you have any serious evidence to support your theory, still waiting.

You believe your 230 vote swing fantasy all you want.

I don't even know what that means? What swing? To make any progress a good proportion of that vote has to agree on something other than rejecting May's deal.

In what way was it a 'poll of doom', as you so inelequently put it? It's a facing up to reality, which not a single Leaver on this thread seems able to do. Everyone knows what a political 'swing' is.

May has to overturn a 230 vote defeat in the next 96hrs. You and I know that's utterly impossible. And then another no confidence vote, and then another vote on May's Deal and then another no confidence vote ad nauseum. These votes don't really matter. People will get used to it.

Coopers vote does though. Because after A50 is extended once, and the population get used to that, like I said above the EU27 will fall over themselves to keep in extending it, till any juice there was left in the entire process is dried up. Dead. Finished.

They just have to sit back and watch the in fighting from the sidelines. What's the rush? It does no harm to the EU economy to postpone A50 by a year, two years, four. It damages Britain though. And by and by, some colour of government will push the 'kill' switch and no one will remember (or care) what that stupid vote in June 2016 was all about.

Time. The EU has got plenty of it. Right now Britain is haemorrhaging credibility daily and key industries (Airbus, Dyson to name but two). That's their strategy: procrastination. And not budging one bit from the 'deal'.
May is hogtied, as is parliament. Time. That's all it takes to hobble the entire thing.

[thirdcrank]

AIUI "We" can rescind Article 50 ie withdraw it unilaterally - that's been decided by the hated European Court - but extending it would require agreement from the EU which is unlikely to be unconditional. I suppose we could rescind A50 then resume leaving negotiations with the threat that we really meant it this time, but that we'd be invoking A50 after "they" had assured us we could keep our cake while eating theirs.

[PDQ Mobile]

AIUI "We" can rescind Article 50 ie withdraw it unilaterally - that's been decided by the hated European Court - but extending it would require agreement from the EU which is unlikely to be unconditional. I suppose we could rescind A50 then resume leaving negotiations with the threat that we really meant it this time, but that we'd be invoking A50 after "they" had assured us we could keep our cake while eating theirs.

I don't hate the European court.
I always ( in a layman's way) though it made pretty fair judgements.
I include this one in that.

[PH]

In what way was it a 'poll of doom', as you so inelequently put it? It's a facing up to reality, which not a single Leaver on this thread seems able to do. Everyone knows what a political 'swing' is.

Your poll of doom asks

It's March 29th, 23h00: What happens next?

You currently believe

Coopers vote does though. Because after A50 is extended once, and the population get used to that, like I said above the EU27 will fall over themselves to keep in extending it, till any juice there was left in the entire process is dried up. Dead. Finished.

Where is the poll option that predicts that? I suggested an option that things carried on pretty much as normal, which would be closest to what you're now suggesting, you ridiculed it, while apparently betting on it

May has to overturn a 230 vote defeat in the next 96hrs. You and I know that's utterly impossible. And then another no confidence vote, and then another vote on May's Deal and then another no confidence vote ad nauseum.

She doesn't have to do anything, the ad nauseum only lasts till the end of March, then unless the opposition unite behind an alternative we're out deal or no deal. I don't think anyone has suggested there will be a swing to support it, but somehow in your head it's my swing
I'll ask again, for the third time* - where is the analysis that supports your view that we can keep extending A50 till it quietly goes away?
* I wouldn't normally be so persistent but as NA is continually hounded to back up anything he says I'll make an exception.

[Canuk]

AIUI "We" can rescind Article 50 ie withdraw it unilaterally - that's been decided by the hated European Court - but extending it would require agreement from the EU which is unlikely to be unconditional. I suppose we could rescind A50 then resume leaving negotiations with the threat that we really meant it this time, but that we'd be invoking A50 after "they" had assured us we could keep our cake while eating theirs.

At this time of night that's too much of an A50 game of chess to contemplate! I'm off to kip. You can try an explain it to me again tomorrow

[Canuk]

I started the poll 6 weeks before Cooper proposed her A50 extension amendment. I'm not Mystic Meg, it's a fast moving situation, y'know? Perhaps I'll start another one about the length of A50 extensions? Seems to be the hot topic in Parliament , 9 months? A year? 2 years? Who knows?

May's Deal is absolutely dead. Even you know that. Parliament has said time and time again that it will resolutely not let the UK roll over the cliff edge on the 29th. There's a huge majority for it. So something else will have to be *delivered in it's place, by someone else, because it's patently clear by now that May and her administration can't do it. And that's why the Tories are running so terrified of A50 extensions.

A50 extension is not a 'wish' , its the reality. And by Tuesday it'll be in place. May has run out of time. The EU27 have plenty of it, they're in no rush, they just have to wait. They're good at that. Time is their friend, and May's doom.

Clearly the markets love the prospect of an A50 extension as the pound is up more than 3% from 1.12 to 1.16 against the euro, the biggest one week leap for over a year? Care to explain that? In the same week that Dyson did the off and Airbus as much as said the same.

[NATURAL ANKLING]

Hi,
Pretty obvious you hate some people..........much.................clouding the content of your posting

Today -
R2 is a non starter.........kicked into the long grass (not dead yet)
EU are softening as to allow free access for trucks after 29th (that is always march) (some countries) they also fear edge of terra firma.
Milliband D gets his oar in (no longer works for uk?)
Much talk about labour...leaders view on brexit.........his vision
Calls for Jeremy to get behind peoples vote (r2).
Add more please

[Cours]

Hi,
Pretty obvious you hate some people..........much.................clouding the content of your posting

Today -
R2 is a non starter.........kicked into the long grass (not dead yet)
EU are softening as to allow free access for trucks after 29th (that is always march) (some countries) they also fear edge of terra firma.
Milliband D gets his oar in (no longer works for uk?)
Much talk about labour...leaders view on brexit.........his vision
Calls for Jeremy to get behind peoples vote (r2).
Add more please

Eh, no but yeah. But no but yeah...

Desperate stuff. Answer the question, how do you think that May cam turm around a 230 vote defeat before Tuesday (or any Tuesday in the future) when the EU absolutely won't budge on thr backstop?

Brexit is a total failure under May, time someone who is willing to b move the red lines had a crack at it. Shes pathetic. And paving the way to the most catastrophic crisis since WW2.

[mjr]

joke of the day
BBC considers setting up international base in Belgium after Brexit

well wont need to change the name?


Belgium Broadcasting Corporation

Let them pay the TV licence fee
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/24/bbc-international-hq-belgium-brexit-netherlands-ireland-eu

I'd still bet on the Netherlands. Its own broadcasting system is a bit more open than Belgium's and I think its BBC-Trust-equivalent NPO's appointment is up for review in the next year, which might open some opportunities for the BBC.

[kwackers]

Breaking news!

Finally a brexit dividend.