** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

[bovlomov]

You state your own views, which is fine, but you miss the point, which is that it was migration issues that acted as the driver for the rise of discontent with the EU. Much more so than the charms of Farage or the money of his backers. Migration wasn't a concern for you, but it was for a lot of people. Saying that anti-EU sentiment arose just because of billionaires pulling strings is just sweeping this issue under the carpet again.

What's the Johnson-Farage Party's immigration policy? While both appeal to racists and xenophobes, there's nothing to suggest either have developed any sort of policy to control immigration.

[pwa]

You state your own views, which is fine, but you miss the point, which is that it was migration issues that acted as the driver for the rise of discontent with the EU. Much more so than the charms of Farage or the money of his backers. Migration wasn't a concern for you, but it was for a lot of people. Saying that anti-EU sentiment arose just because of billionaires pulling strings is just sweeping this issue under the carpet again.

What's the Johnson-Farage Party's immigration policy? While both appeal to racists and xenophobes, there's nothing to suggest either have developed any sort of policy to control immigration.

Your guess is as good as mine. I don't like em. The only point I was making was in reply to the mistaken notion that it was just billionaires' money and hype that led to the rise of anti-EU sentiment. It wasn't. It was real concern about an issue that was and is a real one for many of us.

[kwackers]

Your guess is as good as mine. I don't like em. The only point I was making was in reply to the mistaken notion that it was just billionaires' money and hype that led to the rise of anti-EU sentiment. It wasn't. It was real concern about an issue that was and is a real one for many of us.

And the problem I had with that was it was something we could do something about but didn't and now it's fairly obvious we won't.
So if immigration was one's bugbear what exactly has one achieved by voting brexit?

Although:

Obviously it's not completely true, by making the UK a worse place to live and promoting racism we have managed to have some effect on immigration so I guess in that sense brexit has achieved that although I personally don't see rising hate in quite the same way as some folk obviously do.

[pwa]

Your guess is as good as mine. I don't like em. The only point I was making was in reply to the mistaken notion that it was just billionaires' money and hype that led to the rise of anti-EU sentiment. It wasn't. It was real concern about an issue that was and is a real one for many of us.

And the problem I had with that was it was something we could do something about but didn't and now it's fairly obvious we won't.
So if immigration was one's bugbear what exactly has one achieved by voting brexit?

Although:

Obviously it's not completely true, by making the UK a worse place to live and promoting racism we have managed to have some effect on immigration so I guess in that sense brexit has achieved that although I personally don't see rising hate in quite the same way as some folk obviously do.

Again, this misses the only point I was making, which is that whether you agree with them or not, people were turned against the EU by the migration issue. You don't have to agree with them to recognise this as a fact. Not recognising this simple fact is a form of denial that stores up problems for the future. I'm not inviting anyone not concerned with migration matters to become concerned. I am inviting you to recognise that the issue exists, it is important because it affects how people feel and will vote, and it has to be dealt with. Anyone who thought it could be ignored should have learned different in June 2016.

[roubaixtuesday]

You have missed out one stage in the rise of Europe as an issue in UK politics. I suspect the crucial change was the dramatic rise in immigration from the EU, which came to far exceed emigration, and fuelled a threat to Conservative parliamentary seats. The driver was more the migration figures rather than Farage and his backers.

Immigration, or more exactly, fear of immigration, was for sure a big issue in the campaign.

I’d argue that the evidence shows pretty clearly this was exploited to achieve Brexit rather than a bottom up issue:
- Research clearly shows that the leave vote was actually higher where there are less immigrants https://theconversation.com/hard-eviden ... exit-62138
- Immigrants exploiting resources for Brits (NHS) was and is the exact opposite of the truth – 25% of GPs are immigrants!
- 50% of immigration is non-EU anyway and already "under our control"

My analysis would be that the unprecedented fall in real incomes (I recall this is worse than at any time since the industrial revolution, for context) since the financial crash was the true driver of the vote. That was ruthlessly exploited by the xenophobes to mobilise hostility to outsiders, and, ironically, usher in politics which will achieve the precise opposite of the drivers of the vote.

An interesting graph:

[roubaixtuesday]

Obviously it's not completely true, by making the UK a worse place to live and promoting racism we have managed to have some effect on immigration so I guess in that sense brexit has achieved that although I personally don't see rising hate in quite the same way as some folk obviously do.

Net migration is almost unchanged since the vote. EU migration has gone down a lot, non-EU has gone up. Probably explained by a combination of the pound crashing and the UK economy doing much worse relative to Eastern Europe, plus that added spice of xenophobia.

A shift to more non-white immigration is the net result of the vote.

[pwa]

You have missed out one stage in the rise of Europe as an issue in UK politics. I suspect the crucial change was the dramatic rise in immigration from the EU, which came to far exceed emigration, and fuelled a threat to Conservative parliamentary seats. The driver was more the migration figures rather than Farage and his backers.

Immigration, or more exactly, fear of immigration, was for sure a big issue in the campaign.

I’d argue that the evidence shows pretty clearly this was exploited to achieve Brexit rather than a bottom up issue:
- Research clearly shows that the leave vote was actually higher where there are less immigrants https://theconversation.com/hard-eviden ... exit-62138
- Immigrants exploiting resources for Brits (NHS) was and is the exact opposite of the truth – 25% of GPs are immigrants!
- 50% of immigration is non-EU anyway and already "under our control"

My analysis would be that the unprecedented fall in real incomes (I recall this is worse than at any time since the industrial revolution, for context) since the financial crash was the true driver of the vote. That was ruthlessly exploited by the xenophobes to mobilise hostility to outsiders, and, ironically, usher in politics which will achieve the precise opposite of the drivers of the vote.

An interesting graph:

Capture.JPG

Well done. You addressed the point I was making. And you make some interesting points. From my own perspective (and I have no idea how representative I am or am not) I saw and still see new housing estates going up on green fields everywhere I look, with more traffic and less space for everyone, and I see the UK population rising. To me this looks unsustainable and having a quarter of a million more people entering than leaving each and every year is not going to make things better. For me, we need to come closer to equalising immigration and emigration. And no, I have not heard one politician of any complexion suggest a well thought out strategy for this. It requires more than just leaving the EU. it requires more than just closing doors.

[PDQ Mobile]

We know that it was an issue for you personally.
Though West Wales is not inundated with immigrants?

The Home Secretary at the time had tools to hinder such migration, I believe.
Immigration of cheaper labour was beneficial in many sectors.


I think Roubaix's analysis is correct, IMV, it is an attempted right wing coup dressed up as shallow patriotism.

Where is Farage's manifesto?
Or Johnson's come to that.
What are their policies on so many other issues?
The environment not least amongst them.

We are are one issue country now.
It's terribly sad.

You state your own views, which is fine, but you miss the point, which is that it was migration issues that acted as the driver for the rise of discontent with the EU. Much more so than the charms of Farage or the money of his backers. Migration wasn't a concern for you, but it was for a lot of people. Saying that anti-EU sentiment arose just because of billionaires pulling strings is just sweeping this issue under the carpet again.

Not sweeping it at all.
But to completely avoid discussing all the positives of being a member, which has become the case now, seems disingenuous.

I personally benefitted from freedom of movement.
Took my chance. Changed my life.

That the broader case for remaining and the benefits of being a member are barely discussed anymore is what I find sad.

It's the "will of the people" and nothing else matters.
If you ask those people why they still want to leave answers are pretty much right wing media-speak such as "we are giving them all that money" and worse.
Bears little real scrutiny , IMV.

It's about power now nothing else, if you doubt that then you are asleep.

[kwackers]

Again, this misses the only point I was making, which is that whether you agree with them or not, people were turned against the EU by the migration issue. You don't have to agree with them to recognise this as a fact. Not recognising this simple fact is a form of denial that stores up problems for the future. I'm not inviting anyone not concerned with migration matters to become concerned. I am inviting you to recognise that the issue exists, it is important because it affects how people feel and will vote, and it has to be dealt with. Anyone who thought it could be ignored should have learned different in June 2016.

I understand the why what I don't understand is the reaction.
It was obvious from the off that brexit was never going to 'fix' immigration.

I really don't understand this rush towards small minded imperialism, closed borders and isolationism.
Immigration is but a tiny part of the problems facing us all of which require more cooperation on the world stage not less...

You think immigration is bad now? Wait until we start to see mass climate migration, they'll make sailing in dodgy boats look quite sane.

[PDQ Mobile]

Immigration is but a tiny part of the problems facing us all of which require more cooperation on the world stage not less...

Sometimes a single sentence just sums it all up.
Thank you.

[roubaixtuesday]

Well done. You addressed the point I was making.

Nice to have a civilised debate, isn't it?

For me, we need to come closer to equalising immigration and emigration. And no, I have not heard one politician of any complexion suggest a well thought out strategy for this. It requires more than just leaving the EU. it requires more than just closing doors.

Self evidently, eventually this must be true.

As the data very clearly shows, leaving the EU will have little or no impact on this either way in the meantime.

[pwa]

Again, this misses the only point I was making, which is that whether you agree with them or not, people were turned against the EU by the migration issue. You don't have to agree with them to recognise this as a fact. Not recognising this simple fact is a form of denial that stores up problems for the future. I'm not inviting anyone not concerned with migration matters to become concerned. I am inviting you to recognise that the issue exists, it is important because it affects how people feel and will vote, and it has to be dealt with. Anyone who thought it could be ignored should have learned different in June 2016.

I understand the why what I don't understand is the reaction.
It was obvious from the off that brexit was never going to 'fix' immigration.

I really don't understand this rush towards small minded imperialism, closed borders and isolationism.
Immigration is but a tiny part of the problems facing us all of which require more cooperation on the world stage not less...

You think immigration is bad now? Wait until we start to see mass climate migration, they'll make sailing in dodgy boats look quite sane.

Am I right in thinking that you agree with me on the initial point I was making: that migration issues were the main driver for the build up to the 2016 referendum? I am not suggesting that we all adopt the same views on migration issues. I am just suggesting that any political party that ignores this is playing a very dangerous game. The biggest gift mainstream politicians can give the likes of the EDL is to not give this enough attention.

[kwackers]

Am I right in thinking that you agree with me on the initial point I was making: that migration issues were the main driver for the build up to the 2016 referendum? I am not suggesting that we all adopt the same views on migration issues. I am just suggesting that any political party that ignores this is playing a very dangerous game. The biggest gift mainstream politicians can give the likes of the EDL is to not give this enough attention.

It would have been hard not to think that at the time given the amount of outright racism one could observe not only on the web but even in the TV interviews with leavers.

The problem is that migration is simply a scapegoat for other issues all of which were fixable from inside the EU and indeed some were better fixed whilst inside.

At some point we're going to sign a deal with them and they'll insist on things that even if we find them unpalatable we'll have no say. I fail to understand how that will 'fix' whatever people think is the immigration problem.
Like it or not we are going to be dancing to their tune, more so now than before, and America's, and China's - even India and eventually Africa.

[pete75]

I was being sarcastic. The people I mentioned are more likely to be in search of knackered 15 year old Mondeo.
BTW I've never heard of a Mercedes Spinter.

Sarcasm is often a difficult one to interpret as the written word.
Lot of typos in my post, sorry.
I blame the totally poorly designed phone keypad! And haste.

A Spinter is a Sprinter without an "r".
Could stand for right?
Which was also a missing attribute!

Never heard of Mercedes Sprinter.

[andrec]

Hands up anyone here who will consider, at the next election, voting for a party that takes a view on Brexit that is not their own. Why imagine that normally Labour voting folk in strongly Leave areas are any different? Like the rest of us, they will put this issue ahead of all the others, and they will turn their back on a party that is turning its back on them. Labour can't win on this. Go the other way and they will lose Remain supporters in even greater numbers. All they can hope for is that they minimise the damage.

Add to that the fact that by not facilitating May's deal Labour have, as I feared, put the Brexit hard liners in the driving seat.

Yes, I agree. All that has really happened Brexit wise in the last three years is A Tory Remainer making a total hash of the negotiations, probably deliberately, and Labour refusing to commit it itself one way or the other because it has an anti-EU leader, many MPs sitting in Leave areas and pro-EU members.

With Boris as PM things will start moving, and Labour's Brexit shambles will continue as we are treated to Corbyn backing another people's vote and probably being evasive on how he'd vote in it.

The end game approaches, and I am pleased that no deal is looking increasingly likely.