** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 20 Aug 2019, 9:59pm

Mike Sales wrote:That don't shorten it!

No it sort of lengthens it :D . North Leverton with Habblesthorpe, Nottinghamshire is longer than North Leverton with Habblesthorpe, Lincolnshire.

However did you manage to find it if you were looking for the village in Lincolnshire?

Mike Sales
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Mike Sales » 20 Aug 2019, 10:05pm

pete75 wrote:
However did you manage to find it if you were looking for the village in Lincolnshire?


Steve Roth (brought up there) told me that it was the longest. Somehow he also gave me the impression it was in Lincolnshire, or I misremembered.
We were in the vicinity of the village with the longest one word name in Britain.

pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 21 Aug 2019, 12:12am

roubaixtuesday wrote:
pete75 wrote:
roubaixtuesday wrote:
Even more interestingly was that immigration in the local area was anti- correlated: more immigrants= more pro- remain.

In other words, it was quite literally xenophobia - fear of foreigners. Actual foreigners didn't bother people.


Not true. The Boston constituency had the biggest leave vote. There are about 10,000 EU migrants in the fairly small town. The next door constituency, SPalding, had the second highest leave vote. It has a similar large number of EU migrants.


Yes, it is true. A correlation refers to the overall trend. It does not predict every result precisely.

Reference here: http://theconversation.com/hard-evidenc ... exit-62138




Percentages of non white British inhabitants
Nelson Lancs 40% voted leave.
Bradford 27% voted leave
Rochdale 20% voted leave
Leicester 33% voted leave
Birmingham 34% voted leave
Batley 35% voted leave
Blackburn 34% voted leave
Preston 25% voted leave
Peterborough 30% voted leave
and I'm sure there's a lot more.
I don't think that article is quite correct. Xenophobia would have played a big part in the way people voted even though they were familiar with people of non British ethnicity.

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Cunobelin
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Cunobelin » 21 Aug 2019, 6:02am

mercalia wrote:Just as the GFA didnt come with an agenda, so the soln to the Irish border has to be approached in the same way, with an open mind - thats some thing the EU refuses to have. It wants to settle things in its favour what ever the cost to other parties involved - that isnt what politics is all about? Typical of a bureaucratic mindset. Certainly not what the GFA was about? Brussels needs to be taken out of the equation and let the politicians work it out? The Germans know fully well with its coalitions how things really work?



Except the open mind is to withdraw the GFA, bring Northern Ireland back into the fold and govern from Westminster

roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby roubaixtuesday » 21 Aug 2019, 6:27am

pete75 wrote:
roubaixtuesday wrote:
pete75 wrote:
Not true. The Boston constituency had the biggest leave vote. There are about 10,000 EU migrants in the fairly small town. The next door constituency, SPalding, had the second highest leave vote. It has a similar large number of EU migrants.


Yes, it is true. A correlation refers to the overall trend. It does not predict every result precisely.

Reference here: http://theconversation.com/hard-evidenc ... exit-62138




Percentages of non white British inhabitants
Nelson Lancs 40% voted leave.
Bradford 27% voted leave
Rochdale 20% voted leave
Leicester 33% voted leave
Birmingham 34% voted leave
Batley 35% voted leave
Blackburn 34% voted leave
Preston 25% voted leave
Peterborough 30% voted leave
and I'm sure there's a lot more.
I don't think that article is quite correct. Xenophobia would have played a big part in the way people voted even though they were familiar with people of non British ethnicity.


The article clearly shows the overall trend.

Cherry picking exceptions does not disprove the overall trend.

pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 21 Aug 2019, 7:57am

roubaixtuesday wrote:
pete75 wrote:
roubaixtuesday wrote:
Yes, it is true. A correlation refers to the overall trend. It does not predict every result precisely.

Reference here: http://theconversation.com/hard-evidenc ... exit-62138




Percentages of non white British inhabitants
Nelson Lancs 40% voted leave.
Bradford 27% voted leave
Rochdale 20% voted leave
Leicester 33% voted leave
Birmingham 34% voted leave
Batley 35% voted leave
Blackburn 34% voted leave
Preston 25% voted leave
Peterborough 30% voted leave
and I'm sure there's a lot more.
I don't think that article is quite correct. Xenophobia would have played a big part in the way people voted even though they were familiar with people of non British ethnicity.


The article clearly shows the overall trend.

Cherry picking exceptions does not disprove the overall trend.


The article is merely a statistical analysis and in no way proves your premise "In other words, it was quite literally xenophobia - fear of foreigners. Actual foreigners didn't bother people." That's a false assumption on your part, based on the notion "all leavers voters are racist". I'm surprised you also didn't find stats on relative education levels in leave and remain voting areas so you could make the claim "all leave voters are stupid"

The areas with few immigrants are usually those with poor economic prospects and a lot of poor people.It's well known such areas and people voted for Brexit as a protest about their conditions, high unemployment, lack of prospects for the young and perhaps because they believed what Johnson et al were saying.

roubaixtuesday
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Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby roubaixtuesday » 21 Aug 2019, 8:03am

pete75 wrote:
roubaixtuesday wrote:
pete75 wrote:


Percentages of non white British inhabitants
Nelson Lancs 40% voted leave.
Bradford 27% voted leave
Rochdale 20% voted leave
Leicester 33% voted leave
Birmingham 34% voted leave
Batley 35% voted leave
Blackburn 34% voted leave
Preston 25% voted leave
Peterborough 30% voted leave
and I'm sure there's a lot more.
I don't think that article is quite correct. Xenophobia would have played a big part in the way people voted even though they were familiar with people of non British ethnicity.


The article clearly shows the overall trend.

Cherry picking exceptions does not disprove the overall trend.


The article is merely a statistical analysis and in no way proves your premise "In other words, it was quite literally xenophobia - fear of foreigners. Actual foreigners didn't bother people." That's a false assumption on your part, based on the notion "all leavers voters are racist". I'm surprised you also didn't find stats on relative education levels in leave and remain voting areas so you could make the claim "all leave voters are stupid"

The areas with few immigrants are usually those with poor economic prospects and a lot of poor people.It's well known such areas and people voted for Brexit as a protest about their conditions, high unemployment, lack of prospects for the young and perhaps because they believed what Johnson et al were saying.


Well, I would have better worded it "In other words, it was more xenophobia - fear of foreigners - than actual foreigners"

it's not remotely based on the premise "all leave voters are racist" - that's a lazy smear on your part. Try addressing the actual argument made rather than inventing ones more convenient to you.

So, what do you learn from the fact that immigration levels are negatively correlated to leave voters?

Oldjohnw
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Location: Northumberland

Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Oldjohnw » 21 Aug 2019, 8:07am

In the run up to the Referendum I got tired of hearing "illegals (not people) get free houses' (they get nothing, zero); "foreigners get the jobs' and simultaneously "foreigners bleed the benefits system"; "immigrants get twice a pensioner" (they don't).

I used to be on Facebook and this was he sort of stuff that was circulated.

So fear of foreigners was as real as it was based on falsehoods. Known as xenophobia.
John

Cycling and recycling

Vorpal
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Vorpal » 21 Aug 2019, 8:15am

Mike Sales wrote: the village with the longest [English] compound place name in Britain

FTFY ;)
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom

pete75
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Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 21 Aug 2019, 8:31am

roubaixtuesday wrote:
pete75 wrote:
roubaixtuesday wrote:
The article clearly shows the overall trend.

Cherry picking exceptions does not disprove the overall trend.


The article is merely a statistical analysis and in no way proves your premise "In other words, it was quite literally xenophobia - fear of foreigners. Actual foreigners didn't bother people." That's a false assumption on your part, based on the notion "all leavers voters are racist". I'm surprised you also didn't find stats on relative education levels in leave and remain voting areas so you could make the claim "all leave voters are stupid"

The areas with few immigrants are usually those with poor economic prospects and a lot of poor people.It's well known such areas and people voted for Brexit as a protest about their conditions, high unemployment, lack of prospects for the young and perhaps because they believed what Johnson et al were saying.


Well, I would have better worded it "In other words, it was more xenophobia - fear of foreigners - than actual foreigners"

it's not remotely based on the premise "all leave voters are racist" - that's a lazy smear on your part. Try addressing the actual argument made rather than inventing ones more convenient to you.

So, what do you learn from the fact that immigration levels are negatively correlated to leave voters?


The conclusion you've drawn is that areas without many immigrants voted leave out of xenophobia which is , to all intents and purposes, a synonym for racism. The Merriam Webster dictionary defines xenophobia as fear and hatred of foreigners. The International Encyclopedia of Social and Behavioural Sciences states "Xenophobia is perpetuated through a dynamic public rhetoric that actively stigmatizes and vilifies migrants by playing up the ‘threat’ posed by their presence and making them scapegoats for social problems." If that isn't racism I don't know what is.

Why are immigration levels are negatively correlated to leave voters. That should be leave voting areas really.
Most immigrants were attracted here because they want better prospects than they think they'll have at home - basically they want to earn more. That means few will go to areas with high unemployment and few job opportunities. Many there believed Brexit would improve things for them.
"Many working-class people believed – and continue to believe – that Brexit will bring about a positive change in their circumstances. Lisa Mckenzie (Middlesex University) argues that their voices have been ignored for 40 years, and the better-off mock and dismiss their attachment to leaving the EU. It is time to recognise the systematic way the working class has been excluded from British society."

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/01/ ... lame-them/

roubaixtuesday
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Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby roubaixtuesday » 21 Aug 2019, 8:54am

pete75 wrote:
roubaixtuesday wrote:
pete75 wrote:
The article is merely a statistical analysis and in no way proves your premise "In other words, it was quite literally xenophobia - fear of foreigners. Actual foreigners didn't bother people." That's a false assumption on your part, based on the notion "all leavers voters are racist". I'm surprised you also didn't find stats on relative education levels in leave and remain voting areas so you could make the claim "all leave voters are stupid"

The areas with few immigrants are usually those with poor economic prospects and a lot of poor people.It's well known such areas and people voted for Brexit as a protest about their conditions, high unemployment, lack of prospects for the young and perhaps because they believed what Johnson et al were saying.


Well, I would have better worded it "In other words, it was more xenophobia - fear of foreigners - than actual foreigners"

it's not remotely based on the premise "all leave voters are racist" - that's a lazy smear on your part. Try addressing the actual argument made rather than inventing ones more convenient to you.

So, what do you learn from the fact that immigration levels are negatively correlated to leave voters?


The conclusion you've drawn is that areas without many immigrants voted leave out of xenophobia which is , to all intents and purposes, a synonym for racism. The Merriam Webster dictionary defines xenophobia as fear and hatred of foreigners. The International Encyclopedia of Social and Behavioural Sciences states "Xenophobia is perpetuated through a dynamic public rhetoric that actively stigmatizes and vilifies migrants by playing up the ‘threat’ posed by their presence and making them scapegoats for social problems." If that isn't racism I don't know what is.

Why are immigration levels are negatively correlated to leave voters. That should be leave voting areas really.
Most immigrants were attracted here because they want better prospects than they think they'll have at home - basically they want to earn more. That means few will go to areas with high unemployment and few job opportunities. Many there believed Brexit would improve things for them.
"Many working-class people believed – and continue to believe – that Brexit will bring about a positive change in their circumstances. Lisa Mckenzie (Middlesex University) argues that their voices have been ignored for 40 years, and the better-off mock and dismiss their attachment to leaving the EU. It is time to recognise the systematic way the working class has been excluded from British society."

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/01/ ... lame-them/


"The conclusion you've drawn is that areas without many immigrants voted leave out of xenophobia which is , to all intents and purposes, a synonym for racism."

No, that's not what I said. What I was trying to say is that the vote was more driven by fear of foreigners than actual experience of living with foreigners. Which is what the stats show.

You keep on accusing me of things I have not said. It's not the same to say that xenophobia was an overall driver of the vote (it clearly was) and that every leave voter was xenophobic (they clearly were not).

I agree totally with the comments on the working class. I have argued here before, and continue to believe now, that the fundamental reason for the vote was the unprecedented decline in real wages: over the decade before the vote, real wages dropped more than ever before since the Industrial Revolution. Blaming that on foreigners resulted in Brexit, but that's second order really.

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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 21 Aug 2019, 8:58am

It is time to recognise the systematic way the working class has been excluded from British society.

That's true, but the Leave campaign was fronted by the very people who have resisted any effort to remedy the problems. Gove, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Villiers, Raab, Patel et al ARE the problem. They are the ones writing books about British workers being the worst idlers. They are the ones resisting improvements in living conditions. They are the ones consistently voting for policies that make life harder for the poorest in society.

I understand that many people wanted a change. They felt that life couldn't get any worse. They are being proved wrong.

roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby roubaixtuesday » 21 Aug 2019, 8:59am

bovlomov wrote:
I understand that many people wanted a change. They felt that life couldn't get any worse. They are being proved wrong.


This.

Oldjohnw
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Oldjohnw » 21 Aug 2019, 9:01am

bovlomov wrote:
It is time to recognise the systematic way the working class has been excluded from British society.

That's true, but the Leave campaign was fronted by the very people who have resisted any effort to remedy the problems. Gove, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Villiers, Raab, Patel et al ARE the problem. They are the ones writing books about British workers being the worst idlers. They are the ones resisting improvements in living conditions. They are the ones consistently voting for policies that make life harder for the poorest in society.

I understand that many people wanted a change. They felt that life couldn't get any worse. They are being proved wrong.



And they are the architects and perpetuators of austerity.
John

Cycling and recycling

pete75
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Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 21 Aug 2019, 9:44am

roubaixtuesday wrote:"The conclusion you've drawn is that areas without many immigrants voted leave out of xenophobia which is , to all intents and purposes, a synonym for racism."

No, that's not what I said. What I was trying to say is that the vote was more driven by fear of foreigners than actual experience of living with foreigners. Which is what the stats show.

You keep on accusing me of things I have not said. It's not the same to say that xenophobia was an overall driver of the vote (it clearly was) and that every leave voter was xenophobic (they clearly were not).

I agree totally with the comments on the working class. I have argued here before, and continue to believe now, that the fundamental reason for the vote was the unprecedented decline in real wages: over the decade before the vote, real wages dropped more than ever before since the Industrial Revolution. Blaming that on foreigners resulted in Brexit, but that's second order really.


Let me remind you what you did say
"Even more interestingly was that immigration in the local area was anti- correlated: more immigrants= more pro- remain.
In other words, it was quite literally xenophobia"