** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

[Stradageek]

What are the odds that BoJo writes the 'Please delay Brexit' letter as legally required (if a deal has not been agreed) then just sends a second letter saying "Didn't really mean it, please ignore my previous letter" and drops us out of the EU with no deal?

It would be classic, and very scary, Piffle

[bovlomov]

What are the odds that BoJo writes the 'Please delay Brexit' letter as legally required (if a deal has not been agreed) then just sends a second letter saying "Didn't really mean it, please ignore my previous letter" and drops us out of the EU with no deal?

It would be classic, and very scary, Piffle

As I understand it, frustrating the intention of the act would be as illegal as an outright refusal to comply. Trouble is, No 10 is full of barrack room lawyers who think that a line or two out of context will provide an escape.

[Psamathe]

And the only compromise Johnson has made is with the DUP, not the EU.

I don't regard Johnson's plan as a compromise with the DUP as it gives the DUP (with their veto) rights to reject the relationship with the EU in Stormont. He's just passed the decision about being close to the EU over to the DUP.

Ian

[Psamathe]

What are the odds that BoJo writes the 'Please delay Brexit' letter as legally required (if a deal has not been agreed) then just sends a second letter saying "Didn't really mean it, please ignore my previous letter" and drops us out of the EU with no deal?

It would be classic, and very scary, Piffle

As I understand it, frustrating the intention of the act would be as illegal as an outright refusal to comply. Trouble is, No 10 is full of barrack room lawyers who think that a line or two out of context will provide an escape.

As I understand it, if the EU were to grant an extension there would likely be some conditions attached (minor or major, who knows) e.g. to not disrupt the EU or to hold an election or a referendum or to make a decision or something. And the law requiring him to request an extension does not require him to accept any EU conditions (as who knows what those conditions might be).

I'd expect were he to reject some minor reasonable condition it would end-up in court but some conditions might be impossible for him to agree to e.g. were the EU to grant an extension conditional on a General Election being held within 6 months then Johnson could probably not agree to that as the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and the minority he has created for himself put that decision outside his control (hence he cannot agree to something he can't legally deliver).

Ian

[bovlomov]

As I understand it, if the EU were to grant an extension there would likely be some conditions attached (minor or major, who knows) e.g. to not disrupt the EU or to hold an election or a referendum or to make a decision or something. And the law requiring him to request an extension does not require him to accept any EU conditions (as who knows what those conditions might be).

Possibly. Anyway, to be safe, Parliament needs to take control from these chancers. Parliament should have done that a long time ago, but it is only recently waking up.

[Psamathe]

As I understand it, if the EU were to grant an extension there would likely be some conditions attached (minor or major, who knows) e.g. to not disrupt the EU or to hold an election or a referendum or to make a decision or something. And the law requiring him to request an extension does not require him to accept any EU conditions (as who knows what those conditions might be).

Possibly. Anyway, to be safe, Parliament needs to take control from these chancers. Parliament should have done that a long time ago, but it is only recently waking up.

I agree. But maybe that's why there are now reports of another imminent prorogue about to happen.

Ian

[Cunobelin]

As I understand it, if the EU were to grant an extension there would likely be some conditions attached (minor or major, who knows) e.g. to not disrupt the EU or to hold an election or a referendum or to make a decision or something. And the law requiring him to request an extension does not require him to accept any EU conditions (as who knows what those conditions might be).

Possibly. Anyway, to be safe, Parliament needs to take control from these chancers. Parliament should have done that a long time ago, but it is only recently waking up.

I agree. But maybe that's why there are now reports of another imminent prorogue about to happen.

Ian

my fear is that there is a "Face Saver" in the plans, with a trick like asking for an extension as required, but wording it so that it will be the "final" extension. The idea is that if it is the EU that refuses the extension, Boris has achieved his aims, and obeyed the law

[mercalia]

Possibly. Anyway, to be safe, Parliament needs to take control from these chancers. Parliament should have done that a long time ago, but it is only recently waking up.

I agree. But maybe that's why there are now reports of another imminent prorogue about to happen.

Ian

my fear is that there is a "Face Saver" in the plans, with a trick like asking for an extension as required, but wording it so that it will be the "final" extension. The idea is that if it is the EU that refuses the extension, Boris has achieved his aims, and obeyed the law

I read some where that Boris has contacted Hungary to veto any extension. all it stakes is one "friendly" eu nation

[Psamathe]

I agree. But maybe that's why there are now reports of another imminent prorogue about to happen.

Ian

my fear is that there is a "Face Saver" in the plans, with a trick like asking for an extension as required, but wording it so that it will be the "final" extension. The idea is that if it is the EU that refuses the extension, Boris has achieved his aims, and obeyed the law

I read some where that Boris has contacted Hungary to veto any extension. all it stakes is one "friendly" eu nation

I think all EU member states will act in their own best interests which will always be EU (them) over UK. There is no reason why they would do Piffle a favour when he won't be reciprocating. If they veto an extension it's hard Brexit which will be damaging to their own trade (despite being worse for the UK). So vetoing an extension is damaging their own economy.

Also, if e.g. Hungary do veto an extension as a favour to Johnson, it will send a clear message to the EU that it is prepared to act in the interests of the UK (a departing state) rather than the interests of the EU (incl. themselves) which would undoubtedly change the way the EU regards them in future.

To me, if I were Hungary I can't see the up side to doing the UK's bidding.

Ian

[Oldjohnw]

To me, if I were Hungary I can't see the up side to doing the UK's bidding.

Ian

All right-winger populists together.

[merseymouth]

Hi there, The Irish Border has been a major problem for far too long, chiefly because it is a very artificial one! It has been trouble since the island of Ireland was annexed by the rampant Brits. The artificial depopulation then re-population of the "Six Counties" was always going to ferment trouble!
The chicanery of successive British Governments has done nothing to create peace & harmony. Independence was always going to be an issue, which was not helped by the gerrymandering of natural county borders and association. Ulster was always 8 Counties, so the hiving off of 6 of them to placate Edward Carson was doomed from conception!
I have long believed that Carson should have met the same fate as Roger Casement, after all they were both running guns to use against the ruling government, right or wrong had the action been.
So the actions taken back then has always left the issue unresolved, but successive governments have resisted reunification simply because of the violent actions that certain sections of the country employ to try to bring about that policy!
Varadkar is simply carrying on holding the torch of Irish Unity that Eamon DeValera carried.
Sometimes it is very hard for politicians to redress old wrongs!
How many more must die before the issue is put finally to bed? MM* No one has reacted to my border/customs point, "Cat Litter"?
Answer Fuel duty on Road Derv & Non-Road Duty is wide, so off road is dyed Red. But if it is filtered through cat litter the dye is removed. Regular Tax dodge cross border & in mainland UK.

[mercalia]

my fear is that there is a "Face Saver" in the plans, with a trick like asking for an extension as required, but wording it so that it will be the "final" extension. The idea is that if it is the EU that refuses the extension, Boris has achieved his aims, and obeyed the law

I read some where that Boris has contacted Hungary to veto any extension. all it stakes is one "friendly" eu nation

I think all EU member states will act in their own best interests which will always be EU (them) over UK. There is no reason why they would do Piffle a favour when he won't be reciprocating. If they veto an extension it's hard Brexit which will be damaging to their own trade (despite being worse for the UK). So vetoing an extension is damaging their own economy.

Also, if e.g. Hungary do veto an extension as a favour to Johnson, it will send a clear message to the EU that it is prepared to act in the interests of the UK (a departing state) rather than the interests of the EU (incl. themselves) which would undoubtedly change the way the EU regards them in future.

To me, if I were Hungary I can't see the up side to doing the UK's bidding.

Ian

since when has Hungary been a friend to the EU establishment? refusing to take refugees

[bovlomov]

To me, if I were Hungary I can't see the up side to doing the UK's bidding.

Ian

All right-winger populists together.

Orban's skill has been to constantly taunt the EU for his domestic audience while taking EU money. I'm not sure Hungary will make any sacrifices for the UK.

[mjr]

No one has reacted to my border/customs point, "Cat Litter"?
Answer Fuel duty on Road Derv & Non-Road Duty is wide, so off road is dyed Red. But if it is filtered through cat litter the dye is removed. Regular Tax dodge cross border & in mainland UK.

Myth! Or at least misleading. It may remove the dye but it doesn't remove the chemical tracers, so you'll still get caught if the excise dip test the tank and get a steep fine if you're lucky, or vehicle seized plus fine plus prosecution. The excise still have screwy enforcement powers, as some hapless fenland farmer's son seems to rediscover every year or two.

Plus these days buying large amounts of Fuller's Earth will probably trigger some terrorism check - and we're talking more than a few supermarket bags to filter a tank.

[mjr]

To me, if I were Hungary I can't see the up side to doing the UK's bidding.

Ian

All right-winger populists together.

Bizarrely, Orban is still in the mainstream Conservative group at EU level, although he's been suspended over some things, and rejected the idea of joining Cameron's further right group with the Polish and Czech Conservatives. I doubt he'll provoke them further for the UK's sake.