** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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mercalia
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mercalia » 7 Oct 2019, 9:39pm

so the EU rejects Boris plan. a point by point rejection

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/07/revealed-the-eus-point-by-point-rejection-of-johnsons-brexit-plan

The impression I get is the EU refuses to have a level playng field with all the complications that the GFA involves and couldnt care less if it, the EU, damages the UK in the process. Remember this is only the withdrawl agreement not the final trade agreement.

The EU seems to be obsessed with the evil DUP? As I understood it the decision to renew matters every 4 years could either be settled by Stormont or by referendum?

Johnson is right, the only Brexit is a no deal one. I hope we stay in the EU and do our most to change the way it works and use it to our (sole) advantage & dont let the Germans or French get in our way. We were well on our way with the expansion of the EU to include countries not sympthetic to the centralisation of Brussels. Maybe outside the EU we would be a minow but inside a giant?
Last edited by mercalia on 7 Oct 2019, 10:19pm, edited 8 times in total.

djnotts
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby djnotts » 7 Oct 2019, 9:41pm

"Imagine every time you (as Leader of the House etc) uttered something to the press you could affect exchange rates and hence accurately predict movements!!"

The main reason for Brexit in a small nut shell.

djnotts
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby djnotts » 7 Oct 2019, 9:46pm



Nil surprise there then. Could not do otherwise - even Johnson's aides must have known this so either 1. they simply didn't dare tell him or 2. he also knew and was/is banking on rejection as part of blame-shifting propaganda. On balance I think the latter.

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horizon
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby horizon » 7 Oct 2019, 11:09pm

mercalia wrote:
The impression I get is the EU refuses to have a level playng field with all the complications that the GFA involves and couldnt care less if it, the EU, damages the UK in the process. Remember this is only the withdrawl agreement not the final trade agreement.

The EU seems to be obsessed with the evil DUP? As I understood it the decision to renew matters every 4 years could either be settled by Stormont or by referendum?



Lots of people not involved in NI just see an ordinary border and, even worse, many Conservatives and of course the DUP very much want one. The EU, to their credit, see this particular border in its context.
Let's just get Brexit done so that we can get on with the important job of re-joining the EU!

Psamathe
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Psamathe » 8 Oct 2019, 12:03am

horizon wrote:
mercalia wrote:
The impression I get is the EU refuses to have a level playng field with all the complications that the GFA involves and couldnt care less if it, the EU, damages the UK in the process. Remember this is only the withdrawl agreement not the final trade agreement.

The EU seems to be obsessed with the evil DUP? As I understood it the decision to renew matters every 4 years could either be settled by Stormont or by referendum?



Lots of people not involved in NI just see an ordinary border and, even worse, many Conservatives and of course the DUP very much want one. The EU, to their credit, see this particular border in its context.

My impression (and I claim no expertise or particular knowledge so am open to being corrected by others) is that it's as much/more about "identity" as it is about a border. With no border many can feel they are part of Ireland whilst those who feel associated with the UK can focus on the fact that NI is part of the UK. Individuals can feel part of whichever way their beliefs take them. Have a "border" (even if there are no fences or guard posts or anything) and the republicans feel their close links with the south have been broken .....

Ian

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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 8 Oct 2019, 12:14am

The GFA is the target because a lot of people on the right don't like it, Brexit or no Brexit. Brexit is just a convenient excuse to undermine something they have long wanted rid of.

But even if the GFA never existed, would those same people see no problem with putting up a border between north and south? It seems to me that the GFA is the least of the obstacles. The least, that is, unless you are careless about the effects on families, communities and jobs.

Simply, a hard border is a terrible idea, regardless of the GFA.

Oldjohnw
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Oldjohnw » 8 Oct 2019, 5:39am

It appears that the the DUP under Johnson's proposal would have the power of veto. Given that the DUP does not represent the majority in NI, no wonder the EU don't like it.
John

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stu1102
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby stu1102 » 8 Oct 2019, 9:09am

A while back MickF asked how much had Brexit cost the economy the answer then was approx. 40 £ Billion

Latest figures from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Citi Bank study revea in todays 'Times' l:

Economy is about £60 billion smaller than if the country had voted to remain in the EU

The economy is between 2.5 and 3% smaller than if Britain had voted to remain in the EU

IFS forecasts Johnson will need an extension but even with that growth would remain at 1%. The economy would continue to suffer from uncertainty with business investment 15-20% lower than if Britain had remain in the EU

Whilst UK business investment was among the highest of developed countries before the referendum it has now fallen to its lowest



Notes to self

A fully funded and staffed teaching hospital takes about £10billion to get off the ground

mercalia
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mercalia » 8 Oct 2019, 9:11am

bovlomov wrote:The GFA is the target because a lot of people on the right don't like it, Brexit or no Brexit. Brexit is just a convenient excuse to undermine something they have long wanted rid of.

But even if the GFA never existed, would those same people see no problem with putting up a border between north and south? It seems to me that the GFA is the least of the obstacles. The least, that is, unless you are careless about the effects on families, communities and jobs.

Simply, a hard border is a terrible idea, regardless of the GFA.


Maybe he GFA has run its course? it arose from the attempt by the Unionists to disenfranchise the Catholics in the 60s. I understand before then the IRA was dormant. They now have Stormant ( atleast the DUP dont dominate now ). Its not as if the violence has gone, it has morphed into criminal activity? The issue of the border properly belongs not to any withdrawl agreement but to the later trade talks that could render it irrelevent? This was the EUs major achievment to make it otherwise and pull the wool over Mrs Mays eyes now they wont let go.
Last edited by mercalia on 8 Oct 2019, 9:32am, edited 3 times in total.

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Mick F
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Mick F » 8 Oct 2019, 9:13am

stu1102 wrote:A while back MickF asked how much had Brexit cost the economy the answer then was approx. 40 £ Billion
My question was how much did UK pay (net) a year to be a member of the EU.
Mick F. Cornwall

slowster
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby slowster » 8 Oct 2019, 9:36am

Penny wise, pound foolish.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby roubaixtuesday » 8 Oct 2019, 9:42am

Mick F wrote:
stu1102 wrote:A while back MickF asked how much had Brexit cost the economy the answer then was approx. 40 £ Billion
My question was how much did UK pay (net) a year to be a member of the EU.


Which you then used without taking into account the economic benefits as a justification for leaving.

reohn2
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby reohn2 » 8 Oct 2019, 9:51am

slowster wrote:Penny wise, pound foolish.

So very well said and absolutely spot on!
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RickH
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby RickH » 8 Oct 2019, 10:13am

mercalia wrote:Maybe he GFA has run its course? it arose from the attempt by the Unionists to disenfranchise the Catholics in the 60s. I understand before then the IRA was dormant. They now have Stormant ( atleast the DUP dont dominate now ). Its not as if the violence has gone, it has morphed into criminal activity? The issue of the border properly belongs not to any withdrawl agreement but to the later trade talks that could render it irrelevent? This was the EUs major achievment to make it otherwise and pull the wool over Mrs Mays eyes now they wont let go.


I disagree that the NI border doesn't belong in the withdrawal agreement. The withdrawal agreement (in whatever form) allows for temporary arrangements on borders & trade, & those need to be defined. Without any agreement (& agreed framework towards a trade agreement), the EU are obliged by WTO rules to implement the same border controls that they have with any other 3rd country that has no trade agreement.

I'm not sure many of us from outside Ireland really understand the situation both as it was & how it is now.

A Northern Irish friend shared this on Facebook (I don't know if the person who wrote this is personally known to my friend or whether she just agreed with the sentiments. I can find out if anyone thinks it matters).

NI Border checkpoint.jpg

This is the checkpoint I lived beside as a kid in Swanlinbar. It was even more scary IRL. Crossing the border took maybe half an hour on a good day and up to two hrs or more on a bad one.

We saw machine guns, army helicopters, patrols. There were attacks on this and two other checkpoints nearby.

The Good Friday Agreement referendum took place 3 days before I could legally vote. The checkpoints were dismantled and soon you wouldn’t know there had been anything like this there before. Communities torn in two by road closures and checkpoints were reunited. Everything changed utterly.

I know people are tired of hearing about #Brexit but look it, it matters. For my family and friends and old neighbours and all those who live along the currently invisible border, I am frightened about the future. We all are. Have been since the referendum in 2016. A hard border was always a possibility to those of us who have lived through it before.

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al_yrpal
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby al_yrpal » 8 Oct 2019, 10:27am

Mick F wrote:
stu1102 wrote:A while back MickF asked how much had Brexit cost the economy the answer then was approx. 40 £ Billion
My question was how much did UK pay (net) a year to be a member of the EU.


£8.9 Billion nett. The EU spends some of our money in the UK in the form of subsidies and grants but this is not necessarily on our priorities. They decide where to spend, not us. Then there is the ongoing cost of the loss of international trade to the UK economy as a consequence of protectionist EU membership. Various Establishment Think Tanks (Pressure Groups) come up with alarming fake figures of loss of UK GDP due to Brexit, which will no doubt be proved totally false, just like Carney's predictions, after we leave and commence trading unfettered by EU shackles.

So the answer to Micks question is lots...

Al
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