** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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mercalia
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mercalia » 8 Oct 2019, 10:28am

RickH wrote:
mercalia wrote:Maybe he GFA has run its course? it arose from the attempt by the Unionists to disenfranchise the Catholics in the 60s. I understand before then the IRA was dormant. They now have Stormant ( atleast the DUP dont dominate now ). Its not as if the violence has gone, it has morphed into criminal activity? The issue of the border properly belongs not to any withdrawl agreement but to the later trade talks that could render it irrelevent? This was the EUs major achievment to make it otherwise and pull the wool over Mrs Mays eyes now they wont let go.


I disagree that the NI border doesn't belong in the withdrawal agreement. The withdrawal agreement (in whatever form) allows for temporary arrangements on borders & trade, & those need to be defined. Without any agreement (& agreed framework towards a trade agreement), the EU are obliged by WTO rules to implement the same border controls that they have with any other 3rd country that has no trade agreement.

I'm not sure many of us from outside Ireland really understand the situation both as it was & how it is now.

A Northern Irish friend shared this on Facebook (I don't know if the person who wrote this is personally known to my friend or whether she just agreed with the sentiments. I can find out if anyone thinks it matters).

NI Border checkpoint.jpg
This is the checkpoint I lived beside as a kid in Swanlinbar. It was even more scary IRL. Crossing the border took maybe half an hour on a good day and up to two hrs or more on a bad one.

We saw machine guns, army helicopters, patrols. There were attacks on this and two other checkpoints nearby.

The Good Friday Agreement referendum took place 3 days before I could legally vote. The checkpoints were dismantled and soon you wouldn’t know there had been anything like this there before. Communities torn in two by road closures and checkpoints were reunited. Everything changed utterly.

I know people are tired of hearing about #Brexit but look it, it matters. For my family and friends and old neighbours and all those who live along the currently invisible border, I am frightened about the future. We all are. Have been since the referendum in 2016. A hard border was always a possibility to those of us who have lived through it before.


arent you confusing the withdrawl agreement with the transition arrangements in which nothing changes? ( or am I?)

Vorpal
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Vorpal » 8 Oct 2019, 10:31am

The GFA has only run its course if Ireland and NI are united as a result of Brexit.
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
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roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby roubaixtuesday » 8 Oct 2019, 10:42am

al_yrpal wrote:
Mick F wrote:
stu1102 wrote:A while back MickF asked how much had Brexit cost the economy the answer then was approx. 40 £ Billion
My question was how much did UK pay (net) a year to be a member of the EU.


£8.9 Billion nett. The EU spends some of our money in the UK in the form of subsidies and grants but this is not necessarily on our priorities. They decide where to spend, not us. Then there is the ongoing cost of the loss of international trade to the UK economy as a consequence of protectionist EU membership. Various Establishment Think Tanks (Pressure Groups) come up with alarming fake figures of loss of UK GDP due to Brexit, which will no doubt be proved totally false, just like Carney's predictions, after we leave and commence trading unfettered by EU shackles.

So the answer to Micks question is lots...

Al


Al,

your dog whistle rhetoric aside, you don't understand the meaning of the word "net".

Image

Net contributions from BBC.

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mjr
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mjr » 8 Oct 2019, 10:44am

mercalia wrote:The impression I get is the EU refuses to have a level playng field with all the complications that the GFA involves and couldnt care less if it, the EU, damages the UK in the process.

Look at the reverse: could the UK care less if it damages the EU in the process of leaving? If the EU couldn't care less, that would be a level playing field, but I think they do care somewhat, just less than for continuing member states.
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mjr
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mjr » 8 Oct 2019, 10:46am

Vorpal wrote:The GFA has only run its course if Ireland and NI are united as a result of Brexit.

Can we ask to join the Irish Republic? All counties that want to remain? Varadkar looks a much better leader than Johnson.
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al_yrpal
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby al_yrpal » 8 Oct 2019, 11:01am

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governme ... 2017-10-31

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-memb ... 5-million/

The BBC is notoriously Remain biased. As part of the establishment one cannot believe a word they say...

The EU costs us lots...

Al
Touring on a bicycle is a great way to explore and appreciate the countryside and towns you pass through. What do you do to make a difference?

roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby roubaixtuesday » 8 Oct 2019, 11:06am

al_yrpal wrote:https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-memb ... 5-million/

The BBC is notoriously Remain biased. As part of the establishment one cannot believe a word they say...

The EU costs us lots...

Al


If you can't cope with the message, attack the messenger.

Note that including private sector receipts from your own sources brings it very close to the BBC figure, and all atte massively less than the cost of leaving.

Indeed, less than the cost of even getting this far through the process.

Economics are not on your side here.

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661-Pete
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby 661-Pete » 8 Oct 2019, 11:07am

If Al can change the thread title, so can I :lol:

Don't know where he gets that "BBC Remain Biased" bit. I've always thought of the Beeb as leaning slightly towards the Leave faction - especially that Laura Kuenssberg woman, whom I regard as something of a PITA.
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PDQ Mobile
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby PDQ Mobile » 8 Oct 2019, 11:08am

Which Billion?
For there are two very different definitions, astonishingly, for such a figure bandied so casually around!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billion

A Euro spectic friend who notoriously looks after his pounds ("no flys on Fred!"),did the sums at the time ofvthe referendum and came up with a net contribution of a penny a week per head.
Which is a lot less than the International Driving Permit, that one may well soon need, costs!

Oldjohnw
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Oldjohnw » 8 Oct 2019, 11:35am

Many - perhaps most - of us are net contributors to our own State, which, like the EU, is sometimes profligate and sometimes parsimonious.

But whilst grumbling, we opt in for the greater good. That is how community and society works.

I've paid a fortune in both house and car insurance. Others have gained much more than have I have. But I do it because it is sensible and I might need it. That doesn't mean my insurance company is the greatest ever but there is good reason to be part of the system.
Last edited by Oldjohnw on 8 Oct 2019, 11:37am, edited 1 time in total.
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Mick F
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Mick F » 8 Oct 2019, 11:37am

roubaixtuesday wrote:
Mick F wrote:
stu1102 wrote:A while back MickF asked how much had Brexit cost the economy the answer then was approx. 40 £ Billion
My question was how much did UK pay (net) a year to be a member of the EU.


Which you then used without taking into account the economic benefits as a justification for leaving.
No I didn't.

It was a simple question for which I got a simple answer and I thanked them for it.
Mick F. Cornwall

roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby roubaixtuesday » 8 Oct 2019, 11:48am

Mick F wrote:
roubaixtuesday wrote:For Mick: it's about 4 billion euros.

https://europa.eu/european-union/about- ... kingdom_en

But it's economic benefits of single market membership far outweigh this.
Thank you.
It costs us four thousand million Euros per year to be a club member and receive the fringe benefits of that club.

Say there are forty million taxpayers in the UK.
This means that I have spent 100Euros a year to be a member of a club.

Doesn't sound like a good deal to me.


Here you go Mick - your words earlier directly contradicting your account today.

Psamathe
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Psamathe » 8 Oct 2019, 11:55am

Mick F wrote:
stu1102 wrote:A while back MickF asked how much had Brexit cost the economy the answer then was approx. 40 £ Billion
My question was how much did UK pay (net) a year to be a member of the EU.

It varies (linked to out GDP) but Government figures Average UK payments to and receipts from the EU budget, 2010-14 "UK net contribution" £7.1 billion per yr. (source https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf).

That puts it in context of
stu1102 wrote:A while back MickF asked how much had Brexit cost the economy the answer then was approx. 40 £ Billion

Latest figures from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Citi Bank study revea in todays 'Times' l:

Economy is about £60 billion smaller than if the country had voted to remain in the EU

The economy is between 2.5 and 3% smaller than if Britain had voted to remain in the EU
....
A fully funded and staffed teaching hospital takes about £10billion to get off the ground

So it would have been (a lot) cheaper to stay a member of the EU.

Ian

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Psamathe » 8 Oct 2019, 12:00pm

al_yrpal wrote:
Mick F wrote:
stu1102 wrote:A while back MickF asked how much had Brexit cost the economy the answer then was approx. 40 £ Billion
My question was how much did UK pay (net) a year to be a member of the EU.


£8.9 Billion nett. The EU spends some of our money in the UK in the form of subsidies and grants but this is not necessarily on our priorities. They decide where to spend, not us.....

Except of course the "they" is actually "us" because we have elections and get votes for MEPs, our PM gets votes for other positions, etc. It is no different from people in my Parish contributing to County Council spending. What the District Council spend some money on my Parish but it's not necessarily our priority (e.g. we get lots of surface dressing we don't want) - that does NOT make it undemocratic or unreasonable or justify us leaving our County Council.

Ian

Psamathe
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Psamathe » 8 Oct 2019, 12:03pm

al_yrpal wrote:https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-memb ... 5-million/

The BBC is notoriously Remain biased. As part of the establishment one cannot believe a word they say...

The EU costs us lots...

Al

See above i.e. (or is the Government biased as well?
Psamathe wrote:It varies (linked to out GDP) but Government figures Average UK payments to and receipts from the EU budget, 2010-14 "UK net contribution" £7.1 billion per yr. (source https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf).....

Ian