** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

[stu1102]

A while back MickF asked how much had Brexit cost the economy the answer then was approx. 40 £ Billion

Latest figures from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Citi Bank study revea in todays 'Times' l:

Economy is about £60 billion smaller than if the country had voted to remain in the EU

The economy is between 2.5 and 3% smaller than if Britain had voted to remain in the EU

IFS forecasts Johnson will need an extension but even with that growth would remain at 1%. The economy would continue to suffer from uncertainty with business investment 15-20% lower than if Britain had remain in the EU

Whilst UK business investment was among the highest of developed countries before the referendum it has now fallen to its lowest



Notes to self

A fully funded and staffed teaching hospital takes about £10billion to get off the ground

Latest figures based IFS, FT and Bloomberg data

£76 Billion =Economy is about £76 billion smaller than if the country had voted to remain in the EU


£76 billion gets you 3,307,400 nurses at £23.000 a week

£76 billion gets you 42 new hospitals

£76 Billion gets you 3,924.000 police officers at 19k each roughly

BUT REMEMBER

There will be no downside to Brexit, only a considerable upside

David Davis
10 October 2016

Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy – the UK holds most of the cards

John Redwood
July 17 2016

[Oldjohnw]

According to some reports it's looking like any deal is down to the DUP. Representative of almost no-one. Certainly no-one ok in the mainland. None of us can can vote for its members. It doesn't even represent the people of NI and it's leader is not at Westminster.

And people said we should leave the unelected undemocratic EU! Much better, it seems, to be run by an unelected bigot.

[Psamathe]

According to some reports it's looking like any deal is down to the DUP. Representative of almost no-one. Certainly no-one ok in the mainland. None of us can can vote for its members. It doesn't even represent the people of NI and it's leader is not at Westminster.

And people said we should leave the unelected undemocratic EU! Much better, it seems, to be run by an unelected bigot.

But then look at how our PM was elected, and how he has pursued a very different agenda to that offered previously by the Conservatives. But at least he is one of "the Entitled" and through the wealth of his parents has done no more than assumed the position rightfully his (at least as he and his alumni see it).

Ian

[mercalia]

According to some reports it's looking like any deal is down to the DUP. Representative of almost no-one. Certainly no-one ok in the mainland. None of us can can vote for its members. It doesn't even represent the people of NI and it's leader is not at Westminster.

And people said we should leave the unelected undemocratic EU! Much better, it seems, to be run by an unelected bigot.

But then look at how our PM was elected, and how he has pursued a very different agenda to that offered previously by the Conservatives. But at least he is one of "the Entitled" and through the wealth of his parents has done no more than assumed the position rightfully his.

Ian

perhaps be thankful to the dup?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0d1YXJkaWFuVG9kYXlVS19XZWVrZGF5cy0xOTEwMTY%3D&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUK&CMP=GTUK_email


This is the rubbish nonsense Boris is puting to gether, just so he can leave by 31st October

Under his proposals, the prime minister would be able to boast that the UK “whole and entire” had left the European Union. “Northern Ireland would de jure be in the UK’s customs territory but de facto in the European Union’s,” one diplomatic source said of the tentative agreement.

Under the deal being negotiated, Northern Ireland would not be part of the EU’s customs territory, but the bloc’s full customs code would have to be enforced in the Irish Sea.


so instead of the EU forcing the north to follow EU rules, we are doing it?
What a load of <expletive deleted>

It would surly mean the north couldnt benefit from UK trade deals? And also have no say in the EU over the regulations, with the nationalists given a veto?

Boris has shown his true colours - a total lack of principals

[mjr]

According to some reports it's looking like any deal is down to the DUP. Representative of almost no-one. Certainly no-one ok in the mainland. None of us can can vote for its members. It doesn't even represent the people of NI and it's leader is not at Westminster.

And people said we should leave the unelected undemocratic EU! Much better, it seems, to be run by an unelected bigot.

Who? We elect most of the EU leaders and they appoint the rest.

If we want to tackle undemocratic, we should start with our mostly-unelected Parliament.

[roubaixtuesday]

According to some reports it's looking like any deal is down to the DUP. Representative of almost no-one. Certainly no-one ok in the mainland. None of us can can vote for its members. It doesn't even represent the people of NI and it's leader is not at Westminster.

And people said we should leave the unelected undemocratic EU! Much better, it seems, to be run by an unelected bigot.

The curse of Brexit is having its revenge on the DUP.

They seem to have supported it as a totem of Britishness (and simply because Sinn Fein were Remain) without actually expecting to win or thinking through the consequences. Sounds familiar.

Now they find it's achieving the precise opposite of all their aims. Borders are going up across the Irish Sea, their own supporters are up in arms over the economic consequences and a united Ireland is starting to be considered a genuine prospect for the first time in a century.

They richly deserve the unintended consequences of their actions.

[horizon]

The curse of Brexit is having its revenge on the DUP.

It is indeed a sweet irony. My impression is that the DUP has a closed and rigid mindset - about history, about the future, about the rights of the minority Catholic population. Indeed, therefore about everything and very much about Brexit. They could not see that their fixation on being British (please don't include me in their Britishness) would present them with a dilemma over Brexit. As things stand they can have one or the other. My guess is that will be shafted either way. But if you spend 100 years stuck in mental timewarp then you only have yourself to blame.

[horizon]

I just want to add that there is a growing body of opinion that Brexit is incompatible with the continued existence of the UK. If Brexit happens, Northern Ireland cannot stay in the UK while Scotland will not stay in the UK. That only leaves Wales and England (and a few bits and pieces).

[kwackers]

I just want to add that there is a growing body of opinion that Brexit is incompatible with the continued existence of the UK. If Brexit happens, Northern Ireland cannot stay in the UK while Scotland will not stay in the UK. That only leaves Wales and England (and a few bits and pieces).

If Scotland and Ireland go it seems to me it's only a matter of time before Wales goes too.

Then there's the troublesome Cornish...

[Mick F]

Every cloud has a silver lining!

[mercalia]

I just want to add that there is a growing body of opinion that Brexit is incompatible with the continued existence of the UK. If Brexit happens, Northern Ireland cannot stay in the UK while Scotland will not stay in the UK. That only leaves Wales and England (and a few bits and pieces).

If Scotland and Ireland go it seems to me it's only a matter of time before Wales goes too.

Then there's the troublesome Cornish...

hmm what how then to interpret "UK" United Kounties?

I see latest polls dont seem to have indicated much of a change in attitude?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549

Boris wants to bring in photo id to vote? I think also should bring in basic IQ tests? Is there any research on voting for Brexit and IQ? I am surprised some one hasnt done some.

quite perplexing that those convinced about Brexit still hold to their views. They must be getting their info from certain sources only, which are poo-pooing the facts that the last 3 years have thrown up?

[al_yrpal]

I just want to add that there is a growing body of opinion that Brexit is incompatible with the continued existence of the UK. If Brexit happens, Northern Ireland cannot stay in the UK while Scotland will not stay in the UK. That only leaves Wales and England (and a few bits and pieces).

Wheres that? In the Grauniard, or is it the Lib AntiDem Trumpton equipe?

Personally I believe if the majority in any nation wants to leave the UK thats fine by me. Its regretable but understandable because London ruled the UK up until the referendum and then they found out that actually they didnt, leaving us in this messy chaotic situation.

Interesting times..

Al

[Psamathe]

....I see latest polls dont seem to have indicated much of a change in attitude?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549.....

One complexity to all these polls is the %age who did not or will not vote. 30% of the electorate did not vote in 2016 so is their answer to any "what do you want to happen?" relevant? - not is terms of their opinion should be ignored but in terms of a confirmatory referendum where they would have to actually cast a vote for their view in a poll to be relevant to a referendum outcome.

....Boris wants to bring in photo id to vote? I think also should bring in basic IQ tests? :wink: Is there any research on voting for Brexit and IQ? I am surprised some one hasnt done some......

Re: This photo ID thing: Are there allegations of voter fraud that needs to be addressed through these changes or is this just a solution to a non-problem whilst making voting more restrictive and adding discouragements?

Ian

[kwackers]

Re: This photo ID thing: Are there allegations of voter fraud that needs to be addressed through these changes or is this just a solution to a non-problem whilst making voting more restrictive and adding discouragements?

Ian

Fraud accounts for very little.
There's a class of people for whom photo ID's are an anathema along with those who simply don't have need of a driving license or passport, nor feel the need to shell out good cash to get something else that will do.
I'd put good money on it most of them don't vote Tory.

[Psamathe]

Re: This photo ID thing: Are there allegations of voter fraud that needs to be addressed through these changes or is this just a solution to a non-problem whilst making voting more restrictive and adding discouragements?

Ian

Fraud accounts for very little.
There's a class of people for whom photo ID's are an anathema along with those who simply don't have need of a driving license or passport, nor feel the need to shell out good cash to get something else that will do.
I'd put good money on it most of them don't vote Tory. ;)

Difficult to guess about the votes of those without photo ID. e.g. My father no longer has a driving license, no longer a passport. He has no e-mail, no web browser so online anything as not going to happen. We probably would not bother getting him a photo ID to be used maybe once every 5 years for an election. And he was a Conservative voter (though maybe not the coming GE). So the elderly probably have a higher proportion of no photo ID and maybe a higher proportion of Conservative voters? (Other than my father's situation, the rest is guess work).

Ian