** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

[Vorpal]

For me it's not about left or right it's about acting for citizens or acting for wealthy/business.

To many of us that is how we see the left v right divide. The people v the capital.

It doesn't have to be that way.
Other countries manage to have some bits of policy from the left and others from the right. But first past the post doesn't allow for that. The policies are invariably those of the party in power.

Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, The Netherlands, Sweden... all are more business friendly, and have better social benefits than the UK.

[al_yrpal]

No Deal Would be “Massive Crisis” for EU Warns German Industry
German economists have warned that no deal could cause German exports to the UK to plummet by as much as 57%. The highly respected IW Economic Institute based in Cologne called for policymakers to take “constructive action” to avoid what they called the “horror scenario” of no deal.'

Brexit Britain to Smash Tourism Target Two Years Early
The surge in the number of tourists visiting Britain since the referendum has put the UK on course to beat VisitBritain’s target of 40 million annual inbound visits a whole two years early. Tourism is now worth a whopping £127 billion per year to the British economy as tourists continue to flock to the UK in record numbers thanks to the double “Brexit effect” of a lower pound and greater global interest in the UK. '

Irish Allow Remote Customs Checks - ie what they have demanded to the UK is impossible. The remote customs checks the Americans have, 3,000 miles away from the US border…

Al

[mjr]

Brexit Britain to Smash Tourism Target Two Years Early
The surge in the number of tourists visiting Britain since the referendum has put the UK on course to beat VisitBritain’s target of 40 million annual inbound visits a whole two years early. Tourism is now worth a whopping £127 billion per year to the British economy as tourists continue to flock to the UK in record numbers thanks to the double “Brexit effect” of a lower pound and greater global interest in the UK. '

Citation required. Edit: found it. It's from Guido Fawkes and gives no sources. It also finishes with a silly anti-remain comment, so no doubt that it's not objective!

If true, I suspect there's EU citizens doing the reverse of what I just did this year - I visited several other EU countries before it possibly becomes more difficult and annoying (not impossible, but less easy and thereby less fun) for UK passport holders to go border-hopping. Basically, I suspect EU citizen visits to the UK from 2019/2020 have been pulled forward to 2018.

[PDQ Mobile]

No Deal Would be “Massive Crisis” for EU Warns German Industry
German economists have warned that no deal could cause German exports to the UK to plummet by as much as 57%. The highly respected IW Economic Institute based in Cologne called for policymakers to take “constructive action” to avoid what they called the “horror scenario” of no deal.'

Al

Exact source?

The IWIC website says this:-

"Who Pays for the Brexit?
The United Kingdom will depart from the European Union in March 2019. Numerous open questions remain about details and conditions especially with regard to post-Brexit EU-UK trade relations. In case of a negotiation failure, a "hard Brexit" could cause considerably high costs on both sides of the Channel. In the short run, companies will be charged more than 15 billion euro as tariffs. In the long run, UK-EU trade could be reduced up to 50 percent."

https://www.iwkoeln.de/#

[pwa]

Free movement of labour is my sticking point. No point leaving if we don't have control over who comes in.

It's my sticking point the other way- how dare the government take away my kids rights to work or study in Europe. As an old fogey I will reluctantly give up my chance to retire to south west France but they are offering nothing to the young people at the moment.

There is a middle ground to be had, in which migration is limited but still happens. Nobody is campaigning for zero migration. The thing that I don't want is rapid population growth and the increase in traffic and loss of quiet places that will bring. I'm very comfortable with the idea of one-in / one-out regarding migration, or even quite a lot more in than out. But when we take in hundreds of thousands more than leave, every year, that is something that will have a negative impact on our quality of life if it persists.

[PDQ Mobile]

No Deal Would be “Massive Crisis” for EU......
Al

And it's not all a bed of roses back home!
And after all these years of our economy in "safe hands", our public finances are in a terrible state.

Has someone been creaming something off?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... d-imf-says

[reohn2]

No Deal Would be “Massive Crisis” for EU......
Al

And it's not all a bed of roses back home!
And after all these years of our economy in "safe hands", our public finances are in a terrible state.

Has someone been creaming something off?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... d-imf-says

It's what you get with a decade of "safe and stable" government..........

[pete75]

No Deal Would be “Massive Crisis” for EU Warns German Industry


Al

About 3% of EU GDP depends on exports to the Uk. About 14% of the UK GDP depends on exports to the EU. No prizes for guessing the biggest loser from no deal.

[roubaixtuesday]

It's not obvious what point Al is trying to make, but the www is a wonderful resource if you want actual facts.

So, if anyone is actually interested in tourism figures the latest is here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... nalresults

We can observe:
- there has been almost no change in visitor numbers over the last 12 months (+1% inbound, 0% outbound)
- Britons have far more trips abroad than foreigners come here (72 million vs 39 million)
- Spending is also far more by Britons abroad than by foreigners coming here (£45bn vs £25bn)

So it seems pretty obvious that the crash in the pound at the referendum has left us net worse off in this regard financially as a nation. Whether you regard relatively more spending by foreigners here and relatively less by us abroad as a good or bad thing depends on personal preferences I guess. Those working in tourism probably welcome it, those who enjoy foreign holidays not so much.

It's also clear that the harder the Brexit, the more the pound will drop - witness the gyrations of the markets as news on potential deals emerges.

[Vorpal]

No Deal Would be “Massive Crisis” for EU Warns German Industry
German economists have warned that no deal could cause German exports to the UK to plummet by as much as 57%. The highly respected IW Economic Institute based in Cologne called for policymakers to take “constructive action” to avoid what they called the “horror scenario” of no deal.'

Al

Exact source?

Well, it's not actually 'economists', but the opinion of one person that has been repeated across multiple conservative news sources.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... eal-brexit

[roubaixtuesday]

Vorpal,

it's also not clear to me on that what point Al is making. A no-deal Brexit is obviously much worse for the UK than Germany. So if it's a "horror scenario" for them, what is it for us? And where does that leave the "no deal is better than a bad deal" rhetoric?

[Cyril Haearn]

The one good thing about b****t
..

[Cyril Haearn]

Leaving the EUs disgraceful farming system
George Monbiot, the Guardian

[mr bajokoses]

Vorpal,

it's also not clear to me on that what point Al is making. A no-deal Brexit is obviously much worse for the UK than Germany. So if it's a "horror scenario" for them, what is it for us? And where does that leave the "no deal is better than a bad deal" rhetoric?

Of course the senior EU leaders have been clear from the time of the referendum that there are no winners out of Brexit. It has been correctly described as a lose-lose situation. Our politicians on the other hand are still trying to fool the public that there are benefits to Brexit - only yesterday David Davis was still pushing this line.

In the short term Germany will lose some of its export market. In the medium term various EU countries will be just fine as UK businesses relocate to the single market. The future of ex-EU Britain will be of little concern to the EU except for the prospect of having a deregulated tax-haven on its doorstep.

[pete75]

Leaving the EUs disgraceful farming system
George Monbiot, the Guardian

People who know about farming ie farmers are not so keen.