** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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broadway
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by broadway »

reohn2 wrote:
broadway wrote:
BrianFox wrote:
Neither. Brussels has the final say.


Don't the 27 individual EU countries have a bit of input too?

Yes but through Brussels,which is the conduit.


So Brussels doesn't have the final say.
roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by roubaixtuesday »

To be clear, Broadway, "Brussels" was hand shorthand for "the institutions of the European Community", many of which are based in Brussels.

Hope that helps.

Yours semantically etc.
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meic
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by meic »

reohn2 wrote:
Psamathe wrote:Except that we were part of Brussels. We also used to "have that say". Our democratically elected MEPs sat in the EU Parliament, etc.

Ian

Quite,though some would have you believe the UK has/had no say in anything the EU decided :?


According to Mrs May in Verona, that will be the case for two years in the near future.
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Psamathe
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by Psamathe »

meic wrote:
reohn2 wrote:
Psamathe wrote:Except that we were part of Brussels. We also used to "have that say". Our democratically elected MEPs sat in the EU Parliament, etc.

Ian

Quite,though some would have you believe the UK has/had no say in anything the EU decided :?


According to Mrs May in Verona, that will be the case for two years in the near future.

That is May's decision. May had many choices she could have made and she chose one. e.g.
    1. We have her "Transition Period" obey all the rules and have no say and keep paying
    2. We recognise the damage Brexit will do and ask for an extension to the 2 year (to 4 yrs) obeying the rules and maintaining "our say"
    3. We crash out no trade deals, damaged reputation, etc.
    4. We join EFTA
    etc.
She could have chosen a route were we maintain our say but she for some reason thought it better we give up our say and become rule takers rather than rule makers. I suspect she made that choice as part of her politicking for her to stay in power, as boss and to keep her supporter of brexit Press Barons, Party Donors and MPs from chucking her out.

Ian
roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by roubaixtuesday »

She could have chosen a route were we maintain our say


Going back to my original point - that Brussels not the UK govt will decide - I very much doubt that option would be offered to use by the EU.

What incentive is there for the EU to allow us to maintain our say during a transition?
Psamathe
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by Psamathe »

BrianFox wrote:
She could have chosen a route were we maintain our say


Going back to my original point - that Brussels not the UK govt will decide - I very much doubt that option would be offered to use by the EU.

What incentive is there for the EU to allow us to maintain our say during a transition?

It would be an option for her to request. Along the lines of recognising the damage an unplanned Brexit would do to both UK and EU and that the complexity of negotiations makes 2 years inadequate and that longer would be needed to thrash out solutions that safeguard both EU and UK and protect long established rights ....

It would have been an approach more likely to succeed had Davis gone into the negotiations and conducted himself in a manner seeking common ground rather than his seeing it as a game of brinksmanship. But May could get round that easily by sacking Davis (maybe Blobby as well), talking of a new approach, a re-boot ...

I agree that we are taking what Brussels decides we can have, that they hold all the cards. But at the same time, they have to make it look like they are cooperating and trying to find solutions. And I think that a sensible request for extending the negotiations would stand a chance. If nothing else it would dramatically lower the "payments" issue as we'd be paying full amount without question for a further 2 years which means the money question for the 2021 onwards become "smaller" (for both sides).

Ian
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mjr
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by mjr »

pete75 wrote:So remaining in the single market, paying into EU funds and free movement for two years after we've left the EU. What's the betting it may be extended time and again. It'd satisfy the referendum result because we'd officially have left the EU and satisfy the remainers because nothing would have really changed. Isn't that what's called a win-win?

Not really because something would have changed: the powers previously delegated to our directly and indirectly-elected democratic representatives at the EU will have been snatched by May's appointed ministers thanks to the Enabling Act they started to pass last week, currently known as the EU Withdrawal Bill, but make no mistake, it's an Enabling Act, giving ministers the power to enact even more laws without approval by any parliament.

Now let's wait and see if there's a Reichstag Fire Decree... hmm, setting fire to our Reichstag (Westminster) might be a way to avoid the repair bill as well as blaming the current neutering of our democracy on those pesky Europeans :(
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mjr
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by mjr »

reohn2 wrote:
Psamathe wrote:Except that we were part of Brussels. We also used to "have that say". Our democratically elected MEPs sat in the EU Parliament, etc.

Ian

Quite,though some would have you believe the UK has/had no say in anything the EU decided :?

It has long been a favourite tactic of the UK government to "gold plate" decisions that they helped take at EU level and then blame the increased red tape on "Brussels", while the Europhobic press of economic migrant Murdoch, pornographer Desmond and right-wing Rothermere willingly went along with it. With the stonking level of misinformation about the EU and the complete lack of effort to demistify it from pretty much everyone except the EU, who were always slightly stuck by having few resources in the UK, I don't think we can really blame most people for believing the lies repeated again and again by politicians and press.
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
All the above is CC-By-SA and no other implied copyright license to Cycle magazine.
pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by pete75 »

Psamathe wrote:
pete75 wrote:
BrianFox wrote:
Neither. Brussels has the final say.


Really? I suspect on the EU side Mrs Merkel has more say than anyone in Brussels.

Difficult to know but I suspect that with regard Brexit Merkel might not have as much say as everybody thinks. My thoughts are that recently the more eastern EU member states have started standing up for themselves and not just doing what Merkel says (e.g. over the refugee crisis), shown that they are not there to do Merkel's bidding. Plus, those more eastern EU member states have far lower exports into the UK and value Freedom of Movement. So if Merkel starts trying to push for an outcome to suit German business without e.g. Freedom of Movement then the eastern member states might start not doing what she says (and remembering that EU trade deals require unanimity - every member state has a veto).

Ian


Yep and then she might turn off the money taps. They need to be very careful because once Britain's contribution has gone the amount of money available to them will be reduced unless Germany increases it's contribution.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
Psamathe
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by Psamathe »

pete75 wrote:
Psamathe wrote:
pete75 wrote:
Really? I suspect on the EU side Mrs Merkel has more say than anyone in Brussels.

Difficult to know but I suspect that with regard Brexit Merkel might not have as much say as everybody thinks. My thoughts are that recently the more eastern EU member states have started standing up for themselves and not just doing what Merkel says (e.g. over the refugee crisis), shown that they are not there to do Merkel's bidding. Plus, those more eastern EU member states have far lower exports into the UK and value Freedom of Movement. So if Merkel starts trying to push for an outcome to suit German business without e.g. Freedom of Movement then the eastern member states might start not doing what she says (and remembering that EU trade deals require unanimity - every member state has a veto).

Ian


Yep and then she might turn off the money taps. They need to be very careful because once Britain's contribution has gone the amount of money available to them will be reduced unless Germany increases it's contribution.

I suspect that if we crash out without agreement and without meeting our financial obligations it will cause a minor blip to the EU that wont affect them much but it would devastate the UK. When we come to negotiate all these fabulous trade deals Fox (sorry, Dr. Fox) is promising, those partners will have seem and remembered how the UK does not honour its agreements so the deal they will agree to will be much worse (as it'll be made on the assumption the Uk might just take the benefits and then walk out without honouring its obligations to them). EU would manage with a few year blip in the budget but impacts on UK will go on for years suffering worse trade deals than we might have got.

Plus much more of the City will have to move to EU member states which blows away a lot of our trade with the EU, and helps make up EU budgets shortfalls when they start collecting all those taxes from the lucrative finance sector. It looks like we are already losing a fair portion of the City, but crash out with no deal and not honouring our existing obligations and we'll lose a lot more.

Ian
broadway
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by broadway »

BrianFox wrote:To be clear, Broadway, "Brussels" was hand shorthand for "the institutions of the European Community", many of which are based in Brussels.

Hope that helps.

Yours semantically etc.


"Brussel"s is rather catch all shorthand that is often used suggest that the 28 countries of the EU don't have a say.
reohn2
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by reohn2 »

mjr wrote:
reohn2 wrote:
Psamathe wrote:Except that we were part of Brussels. We also used to "have that say". Our democratically elected MEPs sat in the EU Parliament, etc.

Ian

Quite,though some would have you believe the UK has/had no say in anything the EU decided :?

It has long been a favourite tactic of the UK government to "gold plate" decisions that they helped take at EU level and then blame the increased red tape on "Brussels", while the Europhobic press of economic migrant Murdoch, pornographer Desmond and right-wing Rothermere willingly went along with it. With the stonking level of misinformation about the EU and the complete lack of effort to demistify it from pretty much everyone except the EU, who were always slightly stuck by having few resources in the UK, I don't think we can really blame most people for believing the lies repeated again and again by politicians and press.

I can only agree :?
And we aint seen nothing yet......
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reohn2
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by reohn2 »

broadway wrote:
BrianFox wrote:To be clear, Broadway, "Brussels" was hand shorthand for "the institutions of the European Community", many of which are based in Brussels.

Hope that helps.

Yours semantically etc.


"Brussel"s is rather catch all shorthand that is often used suggest that the 28 countries of the EU don't have a say.

When they all do including the UK until article 50 hit the fan :?
-----------------------------------------------------------
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
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pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by pete75 »

Psamathe wrote:
pete75 wrote:
Psamathe wrote:Difficult to know but I suspect that with regard Brexit Merkel might not have as much say as everybody thinks. My thoughts are that recently the more eastern EU member states have started standing up for themselves and not just doing what Merkel says (e.g. over the refugee crisis), shown that they are not there to do Merkel's bidding. Plus, those more eastern EU member states have far lower exports into the UK and value Freedom of Movement. So if Merkel starts trying to push for an outcome to suit German business without e.g. Freedom of Movement then the eastern member states might start not doing what she says (and remembering that EU trade deals require unanimity - every member state has a veto).

Ian


Yep and then she might turn off the money taps. They need to be very careful because once Britain's contribution has gone the amount of money available to them will be reduced unless Germany increases it's contribution.

I suspect that if we crash out without agreement and without meeting our financial obligations it will cause a minor blip to the EU that wont affect them much but it would devastate the UK. When we come to negotiate all these fabulous trade deals Fox (sorry, Dr. Fox) is promising, those partners will have seem and remembered how the UK does not honour its agreements so the deal they will agree to will be much worse (as it'll be made on the assumption the Uk might just take the benefits and then walk out without honouring its obligations to them). EU would manage with a few year blip in the budget but impacts on UK will go on for years suffering worse trade deals than we might have got.

Plus much more of the City will have to move to EU member states which blows away a lot of our trade with the EU, and helps make up EU budgets shortfalls when they start collecting all those taxes from the lucrative finance sector. It looks like we are already losing a fair portion of the City, but crash out with no deal and not honouring our existing obligations and we'll lose a lot more.

Ian


I was talking about the long term EU budget once Britain's contribution has gone. There'll need to be some realignment of finances. Germany will have a great deal of say about what happens.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
Psamathe
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by Psamathe »

pete75 wrote:
Psamathe wrote:
pete75 wrote:
Yep and then she might turn off the money taps. They need to be very careful because once Britain's contribution has gone the amount of money available to them will be reduced unless Germany increases it's contribution.

I suspect that if we crash out without agreement and without meeting our financial obligations it will cause a minor blip to the EU that wont affect them much but it would devastate the UK. When we come to negotiate all these fabulous trade deals Fox (sorry, Dr. Fox) is promising, those partners will have seem and remembered how the UK does not honour its agreements so the deal they will agree to will be much worse (as it'll be made on the assumption the Uk might just take the benefits and then walk out without honouring its obligations to them). EU would manage with a few year blip in the budget but impacts on UK will go on for years suffering worse trade deals than we might have got.

Plus much more of the City will have to move to EU member states which blows away a lot of our trade with the EU, and helps make up EU budgets shortfalls when they start collecting all those taxes from the lucrative finance sector. It looks like we are already losing a fair portion of the City, but crash out with no deal and not honouring our existing obligations and we'll lose a lot more.

Ian


I was talking about the long term EU budget once Britain's contribution has gone. There'll need to be some realignment of finances. Germany will have a great deal of say about what happens.

I'm not sure our leaving will make a massive difference to the EU finances. From memory the net imbalance of UK-EU payments are about £9bn a year (remembering that we get a rebate and when we leave the EU will no longer be paying farm subsidies to UK farmers, no longer paying development grants, etc., etc.) So to keep things as they are the EU across all remaining 27 member states will have to find an extra £9bn - manageable across 27 member states without to big an impact. And the trade issue will not have a massive impact on them either as their exports to the UK are about 3% of their GDP.

Ian
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