** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

[PDQ Mobile]

Yes another 52-48% result.
It's becoming a habit.
2 choices.
Practically a random result; toss a coin.

Brexit. American president etc.

It was discussed elsewhere but it remains a very interesting phenomena?

"2 choices" are you suggesting there should have been a third option? And what would that be?
"Practically a random result"? Only if you loose.

That's not right.
It's the result that is important, viewed statistically.
Winning or losing is not the salient point.

It is the same result as a random result.
Just tossing a coin would give a similar.

The fact that so many recent elections and referenda have been so close is, I think, a very interesting phenomena.

I was not suggesting there should be a third option.
What happens when there are more than two equal options is not the same effect. Though no less interesting
In the cases in point there were only two options.

[blackbike]

Yes another 52-48% result.
It's becoming a habit.
2 choices.
Practically a random result; toss a coin.

Brexit. American president etc.

It was discussed elsewhere but it remains a very interesting phenomena?

"2 choices" are you suggesting there should have been a third option? And what would that be?
"Practically a random result"? Only if you loose.

That's not right.
It's the result that is important, viewed statistically.
Winning or loosing is not the salient point.

It is the same result as a random result.
Just tossing a coin would give a similar.

The fact that so many recent elections and referenda have been so close is, I think, a very interesting phenomena.

I was not suggesting there should be a third option.
What happens when there are more than two equal options is not the same effect. Though no less interesting
In the cases in point there were only two options.

Perhaps the third option in our referendum could have been 'I want the UK to stay in the EU and I advise the government to ignore the result of this referendum if Leave wins'.

[bovlomov]

"2 choices" are you suggesting there should have been a third option? And what would that be?
"Practically a random result"? Only if you loose.

That's not right.
It's the result that is important, viewed statistically.
Winning or loosing is not the salient point.

It is the same result as a random result.
Just tossing a coin would give a similar.

The fact that so many recent elections and referenda have been so close is, I think, a very interesting phenomena.

I was not suggesting there should be a third option.
What happens when there are more than two equal options is not the same effect. Though no less interesting
In the cases in point there were only two options.

Perhaps the third option in our referendum could have been 'I want the UK to stay in the EU and I advise the government to ignore the result of this referendum if Leave wins'.

PDQ has been making a more general point, and one that is rather interesting. Some here are making a pretty good show of not understanding it.

[Psamathe]

Trade deal with the US now looks a bit further away

Trump bumps Britain down the queue 'after Merkel lobbies for EU trade deal first'
...
Donald Trump has bumped Britain down the queue for a new free trade agreement after Angela Merkel convinced him he should first strike a deal with the EU, it has been claimed.
...
Citing American officials, The Times reported Mr Trump was now convinced making an agreement with Europe would be easier than he had thought.

Although, being realistic trade tariffs between US and UK are already pretty low.

Ian

[blackbike]

Loose.

Lose.

There is a difference.

[PDQ Mobile]

I be just a simple farmer.
My 'orse 'as gone astray.
To lose 'im once was bad enough.
But two times in a day?

His loosened tether was to blame.
That and a drop of rum.
But that's all in a farmer's day.
Not well understood by bums.

[Boyd]

Trade deal with the US now looks a bit further away

Trump bumps Britain down the queue 'after Merkel lobbies for EU trade deal first'
...
Donald Trump has bumped Britain down the queue for a new free trade agreement after Angela Merkel convinced him he should first strike a deal with the EU, it has been claimed.
...
Citing American officials, The Times reported Mr Trump was now convinced making an agreement with Europe would be easier than he had thought.

Although, being realistic trade tariffs between US and UK are already pretty low.

Ian

Come on how long has the US and the EU been trying to get a trade agreement?
A/ What chance is there of all the EU countries agreeing to a trade agreement with the US...none whatsoever.
B/ Does Trump want a trade agreement with the EU?....yes if it is very beneficial to the US. Now we are back to A.
On the other hand any trade agreement with the UK will have little negative effects on the US as we are too small a country but for us?

[mikeonabike]

On the other hand any trade agreement with the UK will have little negative effects on the US as we are too small a country but for us?

Will you Brexiters stop talking our country down. We are a great trading nation and will be able to make loadsa dosh from the US if Trump allows us any trade concessions.

[Psamathe]

Trade deal with the US now looks a bit further away

Trump bumps Britain down the queue 'after Merkel lobbies for EU trade deal first'
...
Donald Trump has bumped Britain down the queue for a new free trade agreement after Angela Merkel convinced him he should first strike a deal with the EU, it has been claimed.
...
Citing American officials, The Times reported Mr Trump was now convinced making an agreement with Europe would be easier than he had thought.

Although, being realistic trade tariffs between US and UK are already pretty low.

Ian

Come on how long has the US and the EU been trying to get a trade agreement?
A/ What chance is there of all the EU countries agreeing to a trade agreement with the US...none whatsoever.
B/ Does Trump want a trade agreement with the EU?....yes if it is very beneficial to the US. Now we are back to A.
On the other hand any trade agreement with the UK will have little negative effects on the US as we are too small a country but for us?

a. What is relevant is what Trump believes and what he is going to do. If he believes the EU will be easier that is all that matters.
b. EU represents a far far far bigger market for the US and that is a very major factor in making trade agreements - what each party is offering the other party in terms of markets. It's a reason why the UK will have problems and will not end up with such a good deal. e.g. UK-China trade deal - China gains a really small market for goods whereas UK gains a massive market to sell into. Same applies US-EU vs US-UK, far greater potential for business putting efforts into US-EU deal.

Previous US-EU negotiations were under a different President. Personally I suspect Trump will be even harder but what I think of Trump is not relevant to any US-EU trade deal. More important is what Trump thinks of himself and his negotiating abilities.

Ian

[Boyd]

On the other hand any trade agreement with the UK will have little negative effects on the US as we are too small a country but for us?

Will you Brexiters stop talking our country down. We are a great trading nation and will be able to make loadsa dosh from the US if Trump allows us any trade concessions.

Erhh
That's what I am saying. Us selling to them will have little effect on there balance of trade. Brexiter talking down Britain? A bit far fetched.

[Boyd]

Trade deal with the US now looks a bit further away

Although, being realistic trade tariffs between US and UK are already pretty low.

Ian

Come on how long has the US and the EU been trying to get a trade agreement?
A/ What chance is there of all the EU countries agreeing to a trade agreement with the US...none whatsoever.
B/ Does Trump want a trade agreement with the EU?....yes if it is very beneficial to the US. Now we are back to A.
On the other hand any trade agreement with the UK will have little negative effects on the US as we are too small a country but for us?

a. What is relevant is what Trump believes and what he is going to do. If he believes the EU will be easier that is all that matters.
b. EU represents a far far far bigger market for the US and that is a very major factor in making trade agreements - what each party is offering the other party in terms of markets. It's a reason why the UK will have problems and will not end up with such a good deal. e.g. UK-China trade deal - China gains a really small market for goods whereas UK gains a massive market to sell into. Same applies US-EU vs US-UK, far greater potential for business putting efforts into US-EU deal.

Previous US-EU negotiations were under a different President. Personally I suspect Trump will be even harder but what I think of Trump is not relevant to any US-EU trade deal. More important is what Trump thinks of himself and his negotiating abilities.

Ian

Let's put it simpler the EU appears to be incapable of a trade deal with the US. As we have already seen. The change of president will not make it easier. If Obama couldn't achieve it how can you possibly think Trump will. Dreamworld.

[Psamathe]

Come on how long has the US and the EU been trying to get a trade agreement?
A/ What chance is there of all the EU countries agreeing to a trade agreement with the US...none whatsoever.
B/ Does Trump want a trade agreement with the EU?....yes if it is very beneficial to the US. Now we are back to A.
On the other hand any trade agreement with the UK will have little negative effects on the US as we are too small a country but for us?

a. What is relevant is what Trump believes and what he is going to do. If he believes the EU will be easier that is all that matters.
b. EU represents a far far far bigger market for the US and that is a very major factor in making trade agreements - what each party is offering the other party in terms of markets. It's a reason why the UK will have problems and will not end up with such a good deal. e.g. UK-China trade deal - China gains a really small market for goods whereas UK gains a massive market to sell into. Same applies US-EU vs US-UK, far greater potential for business putting efforts into US-EU deal.

Previous US-EU negotiations were under a different President. Personally I suspect Trump will be even harder but what I think of Trump is not relevant to any US-EU trade deal. More important is what Trump thinks of himself and his negotiating abilities.

Ian

Let's put it simpler the EU appears to be incapable of a trade deal with the US. As we have already seen. The change of president will not make it easier. If Obama couldn't achieve it how can you possibly think Trump will. Dreamworld.

It was actually the US that abandoned TTIP. What I think is irrelevant; Trump thinks he is a brilliant deal maker and if he believes he can do it then that's all that matters. Personally I think any EU-US deal under Trump would be worse for EU than previous negotiations but what matters is what Trump thinks and how he prioritises negotiations and according to the reports, he is now prioritising EU-US trade negotiations because he believes he can "cut a deal".

The report does not discuss if they will "achieve" a deal, just that they will prioritise EU-US negotiations before UK-US negotiations.

Ian

[mercalia]

so the 27 members of the EU have held a gang meeting how to deal with Brexit? Why didnt we attend and exercise our influence? we are still members of the EU and the matter concerns us? a bit may has made a mistake not to attend - surly there arent any closed meetings like this? would the vote need to have been unanimous? or just a majority? since they intend to play hard ball why didnt we?

[Psamathe]

so the 27 members of the EU have held a gang meeting how to deal with Brexit? Why didnt we attend and exercise our influence? we are still members of the EU and the matter concerns us? a bit :evil: may has made a mistake not to attend - surly there arent any closed meetings like this? would the vote need to have been unanimous? or just a majority? since they intend to play hard ball why didnt we?

Article 50, Clause 4. Why do people try and find every possible reason to hate the EU, even when they are acting quite properly?

Ian

[Boyd]

Why didnt we attend and exercise our influence? e?

What influence? We have always been outsiders. Anyway I think May should have stayed away, they have every right to come up with a strategy. The length of the meeting would suggest that the strategy had been decided well before the meeting took place.