** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

[thirdcrank]

You should be comparing Hannan and others to Juncker, Selmayer, Barnier, Tusk and so on - do you trust those people more? ...

It's not soccer punditry. We are talking here about the influences on the people of the UK and the government purporting to act on their behalf. In particular, are the politicians soundly advised or driven by dogma, which is trimmed to suit the prevailing wind?

FWIW, I began to post along similar lines about academic research then decided not to bother. A pointer here is the extent of the teaching of media studies: spin. A concentration on presentation of policy rather than its delivery.

[Ben@Forest]

What we import most of from the EU is food, much of it of very high quality. The weak pound has made much of that more expensive and we are pretty dependent upon it. Food!!

Though true the counterbalance is that a weak pound can make domestic produce cheaper - thus favouring the British farming industry over imports. I'm seeing this is my own sector, domestic timber prices are competitive with the price of imported timber, thus British woodlands are being managed and there's more rural employment.

[thirdcrank]

And some parts of British agriculture are in a tizzy about controls on the movement of labour. (Thinks!) Let's reduce large sections of society to poverty so they'll be grateful for jobs on the land.

[PDQ Mobile]

Though true the counterbalance is that a weak pound can make domestic produce cheaper - thus favouring the British farming industry over imports. I'm seeing this is my own sector, domestic timber prices are competitive with the price of imported timber, thus British woodlands are being managed and there's more rural employment.

So what is the mechanism that makes domestic produce cheaper for the UK consumer?
Given the higher price of oil alone.

I don't think I accept the more rural employment argument anyway.
Locally here in N Wales pretty much all timber (little veg or fruit is grown) is harvested by enormous and very expensive machines.
Only a few operaters jobs as a consequence.
The waste and devastation has to be seen to be believed.
The timber pracrically all goes to either paper or chipboard production.
There is a tiny sideline fuel industry ( and I do my best to burn some of the waste!!) but it is a vast wasted resource.
They use that fuel resource much more effieciently in Europe, now that does create some work. All IMHO.

[kwackers]

All IMHO.

No need for an IMHO, Ben is apparently a forestry expert but you're a layman and thus by the new rules of brexit have as much if not more knowledge because his is tainted by preconceived views.

[Ben@Forest]

Though true the counterbalance is that a weak pound can make domestic produce cheaper - thus favouring the British farming industry over imports. I'm seeing this is my own sector, domestic timber prices are competitive with the price of imported timber, thus British woodlands are being managed and there's more rural employment.

So what is the mechanism that makes domestic produce cheaper for the UK consumer?
Given the higher price of oil alone.

British farmer grows product at n per unit. Importer can grow and import it at n - m. Now with weaker pound the British product is n but the imported product is n + m just because of the currency fluctuation. Yes obviously there are other factors so if a producer is highly dependent upon oil or an imported product to grow their own product then there may not be that advantage but it does exist - start reading British Farmer and Grower to learn more.

I don't think I accept the more rural employment argument anyway.
Locally here in N Wales pretty much all timber (little veg or fruit is grown) is harvested by enormous and very expensive machines.
Only a few operaters jobs as a consequence.
The waste and devastation has to be seen to be believed.
The timber pracrically all goes to either paper or chipboard production.

Well I can't really argue with the 'I don't know much but I don't believe it' argument. But yes, forestry is highly mechanised as is modern farming. But forestry machinery often operates 2 shifts a day (as you say the machinery is expensive so they get maximum use out of it). For every harvester it's likely there is a forwarder operator, then a haulier who transports the timber to a mill. But as timber prices go up it becomes economic to thin or harvest smaller woodlands which are more labour intensive, using much smaller machinery or chainsaws so the time/employment is greater.

The UK is one of the best nations for recovery of timber - we have to be because we have such a small resource - if you want to see waste - go to Canada.

According to the 2016 set of Forestry Statistics (published by the Forestry Commission) the amount of the national harvest which went into timber production was 60% (planks/beams/roof trusses, fencing and so on). 3,6% went into pulp and paper, nearly 11% into wood based panels (chip) and
18% into woodfuel. The rest was either other uses (like animal bedding) or exported. The exports are high quality too - so the amount of sawn timber is likely to be more than 65%. So it doesn't 'pracrically all goes to either paper or chipboard production.

[Ben@Forest]

As Kwackers says I don't have a PhD - just various other qualifications, membership of the professional body and 22 years experience - so feel free to ignore it!

[thirdcrank]

As Kwackers says I don't have a PhD - just various other qualifications, membership of the professional body and 22 years experience - so feel free to ignore it!

You just don't seem to see the irony here.

[bovlomov]

I don't know why you are comparing experts (presumably economists, lawyers, administrators) to politicians. You should be comparing Hannan and others to Juncker, Selmayer, Barnier, Tusk and so on - do you trust those people more? We know that Juncker's past is at best muddy and Selmayr has just been appointed in a way which has scandalised the EU.

I thought the discussion was about the merits of people with qualifications. Regarding Brexit, a huge body of consistent, informed opinion (that thinks Brexit will be bad for the country) is ranged against a few visionaries (who think that everything will be great, but they can't articulate how).

But Hannan, Johnson and Rees Mogg versus the Eurocrats? No contest. Those that you mention are technocrats. They know how things work. They understand the system. Barnier has been consistent throughout. He is well prepared and well informed. Davis has been inconsistent, ill prepared and badly informed. I'd say it is process versus vision, but there is no vision.

I have no time for Juncker. He is one of the reasons for the mess we are in. But, again, he is a technocrat. I'll take his crookery any day, against Hannan and Rees Mogg, who are either idiots or they are shysters of the first order. Can they really be as ignorant as the stuff they post on their Twitter feeds?

But, actually, there are more choices than that. We should disregard everything those Brexit lunatics say, and concentrate on formulating a rational plan, either inside or outside the EU. Strangely, we might find Juncker has more power over us if we are outside.

[Ben@Forest]

As Kwackers says I don't have a PhD - just various other qualifications, membership of the professional body and 22 years experience - so feel free to ignore it!

You just don't seem to see the irony here.

Bugger - l hoped it was a jovial aside.

[Psamathe]

.... Davis has been inconsistent, ill prepared and badly informed....

Maybe that's why he seems to be no longer actually going to Brussels to talk to anybody. Maybe he's appreciated how out of his depth he really is and so is no avoiding those who are better informed, better prepared, etc.

Ian

[PDQ Mobile]

Though true the counterbalance is that a weak pound can make domestic produce cheaper - thus favouring the British farming industry over imports. I'm seeing this is my own sector, domestic timber prices are competitive with the price of imported timber, thus British woodlands are being managed and there's more rural employment.

So what is the mechanism that makes domestic produce cheaper for the UK consumer?
Given the higher price of oil alone.

British farmer grows product at n per unit. Importer can grow and import it at n - m. Now with weaker pound the British product is n but the imported product is n + m just because of the currency fluctuation. Yes obviously there are other factors so if a producer is highly dependent upon oil or an imported product to grow their own product then there may not be that advantage but it does exist - start reading British Farmer and Grower to learn more.

I don't think I accept the more rural employment argument anyway.
Locally here in N Wales pretty much all timber (little veg or fruit is grown) is harvested by enormous and very expensive machines.
Only a few operaters jobs as a consequence.
The waste and devastation has to be seen to be believed.
The timber pracrically all goes to either paper or chipboard production.

Well I can't really argue with the 'I don't know much but I don't believe it' argument. But yes, forestry is highly mechanised as is modern farming. But forestry machinery often operates 2 shifts a day (as you say the machinery is expensive so they get maximum use out of it). For every harvester it's likely there is a forwarder operator, then a haulier who transports the timber to a mill. But as timber prices go up it becomes economic to thin or harvest smaller woodlands which are more labour intensive, using much smaller machinery or chainsaws so the time/employment is greater.

The UK is one of the best nations for recovery of timber - we have to be because we have such a small resource - if you want to see waste - go to Canada.

According to the 2016 set of Forestry Statistics (published by the Forestry Commission) the amount of the national harvest which went into timber production was 60% (planks/beams/roof trusses, fencing and so on). 3,6% went into pulp and paper, nearly 11% into wood based panels (chip) and
18% into woodfuel. The rest was either other uses (like animal bedding) or exported. The exports are high quality too - so the amount of sawn timber is likely to be more than 65%. So it doesn't 'pracrically all goes to either paper or chipboard production.

Well practically every scrap of timber leaving my local forest goes out in the form of spprox 3meter sawn lengths. Not long enough for construction timber. A great deal of it goes to Kronospan in Chirk.
Large baulks are often left to rot.
I was told that the western softwoods mostly do not reach strength class requirements.
I am not interested in Canada or the US way of doing things. The acreage of forest is very different.
IMHO the Europeans are more efficient at using their woodlands than the UK. This is based upon my personal observational powers. Which are considerable.

I still don't see how a weaker pound makes domestically produced food cheaper. In spite of all the n+m stuff.

What I do know is that a good deal of my shoppping basket has gone up a fair bit in the last couple of years.

[thirdcrank]

Some of this stuff comes round like a carousel (I hesitate to refer to roundabouts on a cycling forum. )

Why are Messrs Johnson, Davis and the fantastic Mr Fox in charge of our side of the negotiations? Quite simply, because it reduces the political threat they present to Teresa May. And why is Mrs. May Prime Minister? Because her parliamentary party didn't like the look of any of the other possibles and didn't want the decision to be taken by the wider party membership. How did Mrs. May come to be a candidate? By loyally following the then leader's line eg introducing swingeing austerity cuts in her department with arguably greater vigour than any other Cabinet member, so she was, for instance talking up immigration control by reducing the resources devoted to it. She talks the talk but last time round she blew it, mega style. She's kept in power only by the weakness of her position - her rivals dare not rock the boat - and this is how we face the Brexit negotiations.

The precarious situation is illustrated by how one of the most delicate issues - preserving the Good Friday Agreement post-Brexit - is under the veto of a tiny number of MP's.

And the only firm policy? As the title says "Brexit means Brexit."

'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'

Through the Looking Glass. Lewis Carroll

[reohn2]

^^^ nail,head,on!

[Ben@Forest]

But yes, forestry is highly mechanised as is modern farming...

Thought I'd cheer this thread up with a photo of modern forestry. I took this earlier today. The oak will not be going into either pulp or chip. The Fordson Major is a mainstay of the forest industry....

https://imageshack.com/a/img922/144/Wk1K3H.jpg