** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

[mercalia]

The BBC
"The EU says the UK needs to settle its accounts before it leaves. It says the UK has made financial commitments that have to be settled as part of an overall withdrawal agreement."

re the divorce bill. what happens if a couple have a joint mortgage? either one partner buys the other out or the asset is sold and proceeds shared. You wouldnt expect one partner to keep on paying for the mortgage since it was prior " financial commitments" so with many of the " financial commitments" we may have entered into while a member. They end when we leave. The EU wants to pretend that things just carry on as before as far as they are concerned. Now if they had dependants ( ie kids) thats another matter but member states are not kids! more like a brother-in-law that was being helped out - the obligation ends when the marriage ends? The EU wants to think that the UK leaving the EU should in no way affect them - thats the attitude of the arrogant self centred; if they were more realistic then that would motivate them to solve things rather than just keep on saying promise me money or else i wont talk to you about trade In a way the EU is like Mugabe who keeps on thinking he can still call the tune.It has the same meglomania & complacency that said how can the Roman Empire fall? We should just leave now and get on with forgeing new deals doing what ever it takes to stop the EU poaching our sources of income.( thats how the world works )

[Psamathe]

People and commentators keep on telling us how weak Mrs May is - well it seems Merkel aint so well of either failing to make a govt that has a mandate and maybe haveing to rule with a minority govt?

So what has that got to do with the price of fish?

Just another opportunity to raise something negative about another EU member state.I am becoming increasingly aware that some/many supporters of brexit seem to have something of a dislike of the EU; rather than "we could do better outside the EU" it's more that they have a dislike of the EU and relish anything negative about any other EU country.

Maybe it's just selfishness *e.g. EU does badly and then better chance UK's failure wont look so disastrous), maybe failure to understand the EU, who knows. Maybe belief in "zero sum game" so worse they do, better we do.

I am coming round to thinking that the EU will probably do better without the UK as a member state. UK seemed to argue against/block things that really should have gone ahead (e.g. rules about tax havens the EU wanted but UK felt might impact £££££ for the wealthy elite).

We are already seeing the abolition of protections we got through adopting EU legislation. Brexit bill was meant to just transpose EU law into UK law but they are already taking the opportunity to cut out animal welfare legislation (they just can't wait to remove all those safeguards so can you imagine what is going to be cut out in the future).

Ian

[al_yrpal]

People and commentators keep on telling us how weak Mrs May is - well it seems Merkel aint so well off either failing to make a govt that has a mandate and maybe haveing to rule with a minority govt?

My Bavarian friends have all dumped Merkel. Letting in so many refugees at one go has really enraged many German people. Many are calling her arrogant and totally out of touch. A lot of small communities have been swamped. The Isis attacks and the groping of women have both contributed to a loss of faith in Merkel. Lord knows who will replace her and what their view of Britain is?

Al

[kwackers]

Just another opportunity to raise something negative about another EU member state.I am becoming increasingly aware that some/many supporters of brexit seem to have something of a dislike of the EU; rather than "we could do better outside the EU" it's more that they have a dislike of the EU and relish anything negative about any other EU country

I don't think the economy is of that much interest to most supporters of brexit.
For most it's the idea of "taking back control" and even that's just a notion. They just like the idea of it even if actually having it isn't possible.

Brexit is very much a right wing ideal. The sort of folk who like the idea are those that on the one hand think governments meddle too much but on the other think we should bring back hanging for petty theft.

[pete75]

The best Remainers could hope for is a nation divided down the middle with them as a small majority.

Which is exactly what the leavers have got now.

[mjr]

The BBC
"The EU says the UK needs to settle its accounts before it leaves. It says the UK has made financial commitments that have to be settled as part of an overall withdrawal agreement."

re the divorce bill. what happens if a couple have a joint mortgage? either one partner buys the other out or the asset is sold and proceeds shared. You wouldnt expect one partner to keep on paying for the mortgage since it was prior " financial commitments" so with many of the " financial commitments" we may have entered into while a member. They end when we leave.

Thus speaks someone who's not seen many divorces! Sometimes that's exactly what happens, with a high-earning former partner, whose career was arguably built partly by the other partner taking on more of the shared household work, keeping on contributing to the mortgage for as long as part of the household occupies the home.

Of course, that's not the situation here (and it would be odd if one country outearned 28, even if its economy is bigger than most), but the whole "divorce" metaphor is bonkers and unhelpful anyway unless you have a twisted us-and-them view of the UK and EU as single entities, rather than the UK being one member leaving an association of 28. If it's a divorce, then it was a very polygamous marriage of 28!

The EU wants to think that [...]

How about stopping making up stuff about what other people think? It never helps.

In a way the EU is like Mugabe [...]

Really? Not going for the full Godwin?

People and commentators keep on telling us how weak Mrs May is - well it seems Merkel aint so well of either failing to make a govt that has a mandate and maybe haveing to rule with a minority govt?

So what has that got to do with the price of fish?

Just another opportunity to raise something negative about another EU member state. [...]

Maybe not - one of the reasons some Leavers claimed for delaying the Article 50 notification was so that there would be time for the French and German elections to happen and government formation to be settled, so their leaders could agree to a brilliant deal for the UK early in their terms and not have to face her/his electorate before things settled down. I can understand why many be-Leave-ers would be disappointed that it's not working out like that - if that was really the reason (and personally I doubt it), that's another Brexiter tactical fail, then!

There's also a big difference between a minority government in a winner-takes-all system like the UK's and in a more proportional systems like Germany's where coalition governments are expected. Arguably, Merkel's biggest mistake was not much to do with migrants but basically painting herself into a probable so-called Jamaican (black-yellow-green, like its flag - as ever, the CSU's blue is taken for granted) coalition with the Free Democrats and Greens before the vote took place. While it would probably be odd to do a deal with any others, leaving the option open might have encouraged the Free Democrats not to walk out.

If there is another election, it will be interesting to see whether the FDP is punished for walking away and who the beneficiaries are. It would be odd to see votes jump from the centre-ish to the extreme right.

[661-Pete]

It now transpires that the law may have been broken by the 'leave' campaign during the ref. No surprise there!

Isn't there enough evidence now to explode this myth of "the will of the people"?

Oh and before anyone asks - I'm not following this thread, so if this same item of news has been mentioned before, tough!

[meic]

Isn't there enough evidence now to explode this myth of "the will of the people"?

A wife beating question?
The government could pull the plug on Brexit under any pretext that it chooses. The referendum was only advisory. The problem is that it would then have to face "the will of the people" once more at some point in the future. They clearly feel that it is no "myth" or they would do just that with confidence.

[Stevek76]

The best Remainers could hope for is a nation divided down the middle with them as a small majority.

Which is exactly what the leavers have got now.

Well possibly not anymore if yougov's right/wrong tracker is anything to go on. It's now gone 3 in a row with a small but significant 'wrong' lead. Up till about 2 months ago there had been a very very slow slide to wrong (from a starting point of slim 'right' lead post referendum) with the odd fluctuation to wrong that caused the usual statistically ignorant media stories but there's been a rather more statistically significant shift recently.

Of course how this would play out in a theoretical new vote is trickier to predict as one of the parallel trackers asking (the same people) whether brexit should proceed still shows a significant majority.

[pwa]

The best Remainers could hope for is a nation divided down the middle with them as a small majority.

Which is exactly what the leavers have got now.

Well possibly not anymore if yougov's right/wrong tracker is anything to go on. It's now gone 3 in a row with a small but significant 'wrong' lead. Up till about 2 months ago there had been a very very slow slide to wrong (from a starting point of slim 'right' lead post referendum) with the odd fluctuation to wrong that caused the usual statistically ignorant media stories but there's been a rather more statistically significant shift recently.

Of course how this would play out in a theoretical new vote is trickier to predict as one of the parallel trackers asking (the same people) whether brexit should proceed still shows a significant majority.

Presumably all about as accurate as pre-election polling. Worthless. You'd be better using divining rods.

[Stevek76]

Isn't there enough evidence now to explode this myth of "the will of the people"?

A wife beating question?
The government could pull the plug on Brexit under any pretext that it chooses. The referendum was only advisory. The problem is that it would then have to face "the will of the people" once more at some point in the future. They clearly feel that it is no "myth" or they would do just that with confidence.

Well the government is often willing to pay disproportionate attention to the daily mail, despite its readership being a relatively small proportion of the electorate. Like most, governments can over prioritise certain groups of shouty folk and ignore the quieter people.

Eg, off topic for this but on for the forum as a whole https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... aiting-for. Considerable majority for better transport, even at the sacrifice of motor vehicle space but chances of either national or local government acting on that?

[meic]

Well the government is often willing to pay disproportionate attention to the daily mail, despite its readership being a relatively small proportion of the electorate. Like most, governments can over prioritise certain groups of shouty folk and ignore the quieter people.

David Cameron was banking on something like that when he called the referendum in the first place.

[Stevek76]

Presumably all about as accurate as pre-election polling. Worthless. You'd be better using divining rods.

That's about as informed as the average media article on anything polling.

For what it's worth, yougov's final two polls for this were 2% leave lead and a 2% remain lead. The random fluctuation in the sample sizes they use (1,000-2,000) usually, is around +-2-3%, i.e. they were within margin of error. The problem with a knife edge result like this is that if you're on the wrong side of that edge you'll get reported as such by journalists who typically at best have no idea how numbers work and at worst are actively scared of maths, and then everyone thinks the polls are worthless

At any rate that's rather irrelevant as the trend here is far more important. The tracker asking

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European
Union?

Started in august 2016 consistently showing around a 4% lead for right, it stayed that way for the best part of a year, the last 5 results have been -1%, -1%, -5%, -3%, -4%. That's a fairly significant movement in opinion.

[pwa]

Presumably all about as accurate as pre-election polling. Worthless. You'd be better using divining rods.

That's about as informed as the average media article on anything polling.

For what it's worth, yougov's final two polls for this were 2% leave lead and a 2% remain lead. The random fluctuation in the sample sizes they use (1,000-2,000) usually, is around +-2-3%, i.e. they were within margin of error. The problem with a knife edge result like this is that if you're on the wrong side of that edge you'll get reported as such by journalists who typically at best have no idea how numbers work and at worst are actively scared of maths, and then everyone thinks the polls are worthless

At any rate that's rather irrelevant as the trend here is far more important. The tracker asking

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European
Union?

Started in august 2016 consistently showing around a 4% lead for right, it stayed that way for the best part of a year, the last 5 results have been -1%, -1%, -5%, -3%, -4%. That's a fairly significant movement in opinion.

You think a polling organisation talking about one or two percent differences is reliable? I don't. All you can say is it is too close to call. And if a new vote were to happen there would be campaigning and significant shifts away from whatever the start point was. At the moment, with no campaign going, a lot of people must be just weary of people droning on about Brexit and wish it would go away, not because they disagree with it, but because although it is important it is also mind-numbingly boring.

[Vorpal]

Started in august 2016 consistently showing around a 4% lead for right, it stayed that way for the best part of a year, the last 5 results have been -1%, -1%, -5%, -3%, -4%. That's a fairly significant movement in opinion.

without any error given? Not likely. Polls can easily be off by more than the movement listed. How many people were polled & how were they selected? What type of poll? Done by whom? What were the questions asked (many polls are deliberately biased)?