** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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AlaninWales
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by AlaninWales »

Maybe take a look at the actual numbers of EU nationals we are talking about, for example here: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/interactive/2014/jan/27/employees-nhs-compare-nationalities-romanians-bulgarians

Select 'All' and 'All' - apart from the vast majority being (obviously) British, the next nationalities noticable by numbers are Indian and Irish, a smattering of others such as Philipines in different roles such as nursing where they far outnumber Portugese, Poles and Nigerians together. Oh and some 40+K 'Unknowns'.

As a proportion of our NHS nursing staff I am not convinced by this Guardian article that the EU is significant.
reohn2
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by reohn2 »

Ian
It's the old,old story,if in doubt blame the immigrants,UKIP's main policy which is yet more crap as per usual :? .
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Psamathe
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by Psamathe »

AlaninWales wrote:Maybe take a look at the actual numbers of EU nationals we are talking about, for example here: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/interactive/2014/jan/27/employees-nhs-compare-nationalities-romanians-bulgarians

Select 'All' and 'All' - apart from the vast majority being (obviously) British, the next nationalities noticable by numbers are Indian and Irish, a smattering of others such as Philipines in different roles such as nursing where they far outnumber Portugese, Poles and Nigerians together. Oh and some 40+K 'Unknowns'.

As a proportion of our NHS nursing staff I am not convinced by this Guardian article that the EU is significant.

I think the linked plotting thing is very difficult to get much out of (at least I find it is). It only analyses by country and the Guardian article is talking about EU not splitting it out into Polish, Romania, Latvian, Dutch, Spanish, etc.

Completely from memory (so may easily be wrong) I thought the unfilled nursing vacancies at the moment was between 30,000 to 40,000. So a shortfall of another 1,000 a month can only make things worse; particularly as there have been reports (TV) that specialist medical recruitment companies are finding it increasingly difficult (and expensive) to recruit from other parts of the world.

There will always be turnover, nurses/medical staff retire, overseas staff return home, etc. so we need the ongoing incoming numbers to balance the leaving numbers and when you get an imbalance then it becomes cumulatively worse and worse.

I believe it is not just nurses that are becoming difficult to find. I understand (from my own local GP practice) that practices are finding it increasingly difficult to recruit GPs just to make-up from retirees, early retirement, leaving to return home (overseas), etc.

Ian
pwa
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by pwa »

Psamathe wrote:
AlaninWales wrote:Maybe take a look at the actual numbers of EU nationals we are talking about, for example here: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/interactive/2014/jan/27/employees-nhs-compare-nationalities-romanians-bulgarians

Select 'All' and 'All' - apart from the vast majority being (obviously) British, the next nationalities noticable by numbers are Indian and Irish, a smattering of others such as Philipines in different roles such as nursing where they far outnumber Portugese, Poles and Nigerians together. Oh and some 40+K 'Unknowns'.

As a proportion of our NHS nursing staff I am not convinced by this Guardian article that the EU is significant.

I think the linked plotting thing is very difficult to get much out of (at least I find it is). It only analyses by country and the Guardian article is talking about EU not splitting it out into Polish, Romania, Latvian, Dutch, Spanish, etc.

Completely from memory (so may easily be wrong) I thought the unfilled nursing vacancies at the moment was between 30,000 to 40,000. So a shortfall of another 1,000 a month can only make things worse; particularly as there have been reports (TV) that specialist medical recruitment companies are finding it increasingly difficult (and expensive) to recruit from other parts of the world.

There will always be turnover, nurses/medical staff retire, overseas staff return home, etc. so we need the ongoing incoming numbers to balance the leaving numbers and when you get an imbalance then it becomes cumulatively worse and worse.

I believe it is not just nurses that are becoming difficult to find. I understand (from my own local GP practice) that practices are finding it increasingly difficult to recruit GPs just to make-up from retirees, early retirement, leaving to return home (overseas), etc.

Ian


I agree that in the immediate future we will need nurses from abroad. But long term we should be trying to fill vacancies with UK nationals. So we should be looking at why we cannot do that at the moment, then fixing it.
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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by bovlomov »

pwa wrote:I agree that in the immediate future we will need nurses from abroad. But long term we should be trying to fill vacancies with UK nationals. So we should be looking at why we cannot do that at the moment, then fixing it.

This is something we should have done, Brexit or no Brexit. But it requires a complete remodelling of our society, because the factors are many and varied. The government would need to face up to problems about housing, education and wages, and it would require a change in attitude from the native population, who tend to see certain jobs as demeaning. At least in the short and medium term it would require a change in attitude to taxes, as considerable investment would be needed.

I see no one on the horizon who has contemplated such a thing, and I'm not certain that the public would accept it, steady decline being more comfortable.
pwa
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by pwa »

bovlomov wrote:
pwa wrote:I agree that in the immediate future we will need nurses from abroad. But long term we should be trying to fill vacancies with UK nationals. So we should be looking at why we cannot do that at the moment, then fixing it.

This is something we should have done, Brexit or no Brexit. But it requires a complete remodelling of our society, because the factors are many and varied. The government would need to face up to problems about housing, education and wages, and it would require a change in attitude from the native population, who tend to see certain jobs as demeaning. At least in the short and medium term it would require a change in attitude to taxes, as considerable investment would be needed.

I see no one on the horizon who has contemplated such a thing, and I'm not certain that the public would accept it, steady decline being more comfortable.


I wonder if certain professions in the public sector, like nursing and GPs, where recruitment is difficult, could be helped out by removing income tax completely. Or student debt could be paid off. We need these jobs to be attractive to people already living here.
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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by bovlomov »

pwa wrote:I wonder if certain professions in the public sector, like nursing and GPs, where recruitment is difficult, could be helped out by removing income tax completely. Or student debt could be paid off. We need these jobs to be attractive to people already living here.

That's the sort of thing a government could look at. I think housing is the biggest hurdle, but that's the one that would ruffle most feathers.

Anyway, it will require creative thinking, of which there is a shortage in Whitehall. I reckon you are doing more thinking than all government departments combined.
Psamathe
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by Psamathe »

pwa wrote:
Psamathe wrote:
AlaninWales wrote:Maybe take a look at the actual numbers of EU nationals we are talking about, for example here: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/interactive/2014/jan/27/employees-nhs-compare-nationalities-romanians-bulgarians

Select 'All' and 'All' - apart from the vast majority being (obviously) British, the next nationalities noticable by numbers are Indian and Irish, a smattering of others such as Philipines in different roles such as nursing where they far outnumber Portugese, Poles and Nigerians together. Oh and some 40+K 'Unknowns'.

As a proportion of our NHS nursing staff I am not convinced by this Guardian article that the EU is significant.

I think the linked plotting thing is very difficult to get much out of (at least I find it is). It only analyses by country and the Guardian article is talking about EU not splitting it out into Polish, Romania, Latvian, Dutch, Spanish, etc.

Completely from memory (so may easily be wrong) I thought the unfilled nursing vacancies at the moment was between 30,000 to 40,000. So a shortfall of another 1,000 a month can only make things worse; particularly as there have been reports (TV) that specialist medical recruitment companies are finding it increasingly difficult (and expensive) to recruit from other parts of the world.

There will always be turnover, nurses/medical staff retire, overseas staff return home, etc. so we need the ongoing incoming numbers to balance the leaving numbers and when you get an imbalance then it becomes cumulatively worse and worse.

I believe it is not just nurses that are becoming difficult to find. I understand (from my own local GP practice) that practices are finding it increasingly difficult to recruit GPs just to make-up from retirees, early retirement, leaving to return home (overseas), etc.

Ian


I agree that in the immediate future we will need nurses from abroad. But long term we should be trying to fill vacancies with UK nationals. So we should be looking at why we cannot do that at the moment, then fixing it.

The trouble is that the Conservatives are doing exactly the opposite
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/feb/02/nursing-degree-applications-slump-after-nhs-bursaries-abolished wrote:Nursing degree applications slump after NHS bursaries abolished
...
Applications by students in England to nursing and midwifery courses at British universities have fallen by 23% after the government abolished NHS bursaries, figures show.
...
Nursing leaders said the sudden slump revealed by the latest university application data was inevitable given that student nurses now faced paying annual tuition fees of more than £9,000.

“These figures confirm our worst fears. The nursing workforce is in crisis and if fewer nurses graduate in 2020 it will exacerbate what is already an unsustainable situation,” said Janet Davies, the general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing.

“The outlook is bleak: fewer EU nurses are coming to work in the UK following the Brexit vote, and by 2020 nearly half the workforce will be eligible for retirement.


So instead of addressing a known identified problem they are actually making it worse. Then lump the impact of Brexit on top ...

Ian
old_windbag
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by old_windbag »

bovlomov wrote:That's the sort of thing a government could look at. I think housing is the biggest hurdle, but that's the one that would ruffle most feathers.


People who work in the NHS aren't sacred, they do jobs just as everyone else does and out of choice. There is a major shortage in engineers..... should we take off all their tax payments too. Why should they be viewed as sacred too....... well if it wasn't for electrical and electronic engineers plus mechanical engineers,computer scientists and physicists our whole health service would be at standstill. Virtually every aspect of healthcare centres around equipment to diagnose, detect, keep respirated, defibrillate...... the list is enormous. Most people today would live much shorter lives without that technological intervention, yes it needs operatives but they couldn't keep you alive without it. So lets not go down the path of incentivising people who actually do get good salaries( perhaps not the 80k people here seem to think isn'rt worth getting out of bed for ) and pay nearly no tax as it is as their pension contributions receive tax relief and the state then adds in nearly 15% of salary plus a reduction in NI payments. yet the self employed should be penalised as they don't pay high enough NI. I have always paid my full tax amount without state kickbacks but I'm starting to realise that much of our workforce gets most of its tax payments given back as pension contributions, working tax credits, family allowance etc. No wonder our services are in a mess and always underfunded. I was anadvocate of corbyns spending manifesto, but I also believe in reducing the tax burden of unsustainable pension schemes as they impact the tax budget heavily especially now that we live around 15yrs longer than when they were first put forward. So when I hear the "we pay our taxes" quite often the tax is very little given the other benefits being recieved out of tax income.

The housing situation is the same for anyone wishing to rent or buy and for many of those they are on much lower incomes. If you want more nurses from the UK or GP's then train more. Perhaps rather than a bursary they could be given loans as per university students, now tht would be very popular indeed( not ).

It does get my back up when all of these professions are viewed as hardup or badly treated. They are not poor. I remember talking to a GP who had returned to work on 3 days following after having a baby. I commented its good you can work for 3 days and still have a good income, they replied "we don't do it for the money". Err course you don't so minimum wage would be acceptable, I think not. The conditions they work under may be problematic but thats an employer issue not a salary issue. Employers in private industry vary from good to awful too.
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by Vorpal »

pwa wrote:I wonder if certain professions in the public sector, like nursing and GPs, where recruitment is difficult, could be helped out by removing income tax completely. Or student debt could be paid off. We need these jobs to be attractive to people already living here.

Or we could offer free education? Like other European countries? Maybe other incentives would also be required.

You say doctors and nurses, but one of the hardest areas to recruit, and one which hires many immigrants, is nursing assistants (HCAs). They have to be educated to a minimum level, yet the job is often handled as unskilled. Working conditions, hours, and pay are often crap. These jobs are sometimes filled by foreign nurses whose credentials are not recognized in the UK, or recognised at a lower level than their education might suggest.

Various studies have looked at how to reduce turnover, and the answer is invariably that they need to be permanent staff, part of a fully staffed team, and not subjected to the high stress caused by understaffing and excessive 'on-call' shifts. Yet, the increasingly privatised NHS do exactly the opposite to 'save money'.

Surveys, tracking, and information about working in the NHS tend to focus on doctors and nurses, not HCAs http://www.qualitywatch.org.uk/indicato ... rnover-nhs

HCAs often bear the brunt of understaffing, and end up doing jobs that nurses once did, in addition to some of the worst jobs in hospitals, wards, and care homes.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... Review.pdf

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/health-21516 ... o-be-heard
https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/ ... al_web.pdf
http://www.netscc.ac.uk/hsdr/files/proj ... 42_V01.pdf
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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by bovlomov »

old_windbag wrote:
bovlomov wrote:That's the sort of thing a government could look at. I think housing is the biggest hurdle, but that's the one that would ruffle most feathers.


People who work in the NHS aren't sacred,..

I agree. My point (unclear, I admit) was about housing generally. Not about housing for NHS staff.
AlaninWales
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by AlaninWales »

bovlomov wrote:
old_windbag wrote:
bovlomov wrote:That's the sort of thing a government could look at. I think housing is the biggest hurdle, but that's the one that would ruffle most feathers.


People who work in the NHS aren't sacred,..

I agree. My point (unclear, I admit) was about housing generally. Not about housing for NHS staff.

Ahh, re. Housing: https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/every-flat-in-a-new-south-london-development-has-been-sold-to-foreign-investors
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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by bovlomov »

AlaninWales wrote:
bovlomov wrote:
old_windbag wrote:
People who work in the NHS aren't sacred,..

I agree. My point (unclear, I admit) was about housing generally. Not about housing for NHS staff.

Ahh, re. Housing: https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/every-flat-in-a-new-south-london-development-has-been-sold-to-foreign-investors

Yes, 'emptification' is the sort of thing that needs to be tackled. With the pound so weak, it is easier than ever for foreign investors to buy here.
Last edited by bovlomov on 20 Jun 2017, 12:17pm, edited 1 time in total.
pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by pete75 »

First day of the Brexit talks yesterday and David Davis has already caved in on wanting trade, exit terms, and foreign nationals status to be discussed together. Now no trade talks until the second two sorted out. All he can do is come out with phrases like “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.” which ranks alongside "It's not over until the fat lady sings" for banality. This from a man who, talking of the issue in May, said “That’ll be the row of the summer”
Last edited by pete75 on 20 Jun 2017, 12:30pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AlaninWales
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Post by AlaninWales »

bovlomov wrote:
AlaninWales wrote:
bovlomov wrote:I agree. My point (unclear, I admit) was about housing generally. Not about housing for NHS staff.

Ahh, re. Housing: https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/every-flat-in-a-new-south-london-development-has-been-sold-to-foreign-investors

Yes, 'emptification' is the sort of thing that needs to be tackled. With the pound so weak, it is easier than ever for foreign investors to buy here.

Unless we requisitioned or compulsory purchased these properties at similarly below market prices and used them as social housing for the essential workers and those misplaced. But that might be seen as 'protectionism' (or indeed as "politicising a tragedy").
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