** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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pwa
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pwa » 11 Jul 2019, 11:41am

661-Pete wrote:I suppose I'm a 'swing' voter too. I used to vote Labour. Then I voted LibDem for a while. Now I vote Green. Does that make me a proper 'swing' voter?

It does, but the wrong sort for this purpose.

pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 11 Jul 2019, 11:49am

pwa wrote:
pete75 wrote:[
It doesn't matter who I vote for. The Tories always get over 50% of the vote where I live.
The MP we currently have is now an ex Tory - Nick Boles.


The only reason I bring up who you vote for is that you definitely don't vote Tory, so you are not a good measure of how well Bojo will or won't bring in the Tory vote in marginal seats. As a swing voter I would not vote for his partly while he is in charge, and I expect that will be a popular view among swing voters. I think that electorally he will be a liability for his party, not an asset.


My point was that even if I'm a swing voter it won't make any difference who I vote for. I suspect the same applies in many constituencies.

andrec
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby andrec » 11 Jul 2019, 11:56am

bovlomov wrote:
andrec wrote:
bovlomov wrote:Many of us would be less worried if we believed that Brexit was a project for social justice - populist or not. The evidence, however, points the other way. Brexit is a coup by the wealthy.


A coup by the wealthy which most wealthy and moderately affluent people opposed by voting Remain?

Have you a source for this?


Yes, the internet has a wealth of articles saying this . The wealthy voted Remain, so a Brexit coup by them seems unlikely.

'At every level of earning there is a direct correlation between household income and your likelihood to vote for leaving the EU'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/0 ... -in-the-e/

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horizon
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby horizon » 11 Jul 2019, 12:05pm

I find this very interesting. Yet the leaders of Leave are wealthy (Johnson, Farage, Rees-Mogg etc) and the Conservative party (which represents wealthier people) overwhelmingly supports Leave. I think this deserves further investigation.
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pwa
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pwa » 11 Jul 2019, 12:09pm

pete75 wrote:
pwa wrote:
pete75 wrote:[
It doesn't matter who I vote for. The Tories always get over 50% of the vote where I live.
The MP we currently have is now an ex Tory - Nick Boles.


The only reason I bring up who you vote for is that you definitely don't vote Tory, so you are not a good measure of how well Bojo will or won't bring in the Tory vote in marginal seats. As a swing voter I would not vote for his partly while he is in charge, and I expect that will be a popular view among swing voters. I think that electorally he will be a liability for his party, not an asset.


My point was that even if I'm a swing voter it won't make any difference who I vote for. I suspect the same applies in many constituencies.

Not in mine though. Lab / Con. If enough voters around here find the idea of voting for Bojo unacceptable they will be in danger of losing a seat. I have heard nobody around here say anything good about him.

pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 11 Jul 2019, 12:16pm

andrec wrote:
bovlomov wrote:
andrec wrote:
A coup by the wealthy which most wealthy and moderately affluent people opposed by voting Remain?

Have you a source for this?


Yes, the internet has a wealth of articles saying this . The wealthy voted Remain, so a Brexit coup by them seems unlikely.

'At every level of earning there is a direct correlation between household income and your likelihood to vote for leaving the EU'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/0 ... -in-the-e/


The irony is the worst off in society are likely to be hit hardest by any economic downturn caused by Brexit.

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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 11 Jul 2019, 12:17pm

andrec wrote:
bovlomov wrote:
andrec wrote:
A coup by the wealthy which most wealthy and moderately affluent people opposed by voting Remain?

Have you a source for this?


Yes, the internet has a wealth of articles saying this . The wealthy voted Remain, so a Brexit coup by them seems unlikely.

'At every level of earning there is a direct correlation between household income and your likelihood to vote for leaving the EU'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/0 ... -in-the-e/

Yes, this might be a simplistic interpretation. Income is not the same as wealth. The most important factor seems to have been age. Retired people may have lower incomes but they also might have smaller overheads and greater assets.

Here's some analysis of Ashcroft's poll from the LSE.
What we will highlight in this post is straightforward: according to Lord Ashcroft’s polling data, differences in voting patterns appear to divide along the lines of age (above all else), then by social attitudes, and then by education, with older, socially conservative and less well-educated voters more likely to vote to leave the EU than younger, socially liberal and better educated voters.

First, it has been assumed that a despondent working-class vote drove Britain from EU membership. Secondly, it has also been taken for granted that the young were overwhelmingly Europhile. Given the Ashcroft data, it could be suggested that the poorest in British society simply did not turn out to vote, whilst the loudest voices in favour of EU membership amongst the young were those more affluent. There are limitations with any data set and such an assertion will require greater research.


It is a very complex picture. But whatever the Brexit is, it is certainly not the voice of the poor.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby PDQ Mobile » 11 Jul 2019, 12:23pm

As a personal anecdote.
I am the poorest member on here, :shock: :shock: .
And I voted remain.

I personally know two millionaires in their seventies and they voted leave.

pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 11 Jul 2019, 12:25pm

bovlomov wrote:
andrec wrote:
bovlomov wrote:Have you a source for this?


Yes, the internet has a wealth of articles saying this . The wealthy voted Remain, so a Brexit coup by them seems unlikely.

'At every level of earning there is a direct correlation between household income and your likelihood to vote for leaving the EU'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/0 ... -in-the-e/

Yes, this might be a simplistic interpretation. Income is not the same as wealth. The most important factor seems to have been age. Retired people may have lower incomes but they also might have smaller overheads and greater assets.

Here's some analysis of Ashcroft's poll from the LSE.
What we will highlight in this post is straightforward: according to Lord Ashcroft’s polling data, differences in voting patterns appear to divide along the lines of age (above all else), then by social attitudes, and then by education, with older, socially conservative and less well-educated voters more likely to vote to leave the EU than younger, socially liberal and better educated voters.

First, it has been assumed that a despondent working-class vote drove Britain from EU membership. Secondly, it has also been taken for granted that the young were overwhelmingly Europhile. Given the Ashcroft data, it could be suggested that the poorest in British society simply did not turn out to vote, whilst the loudest voices in favour of EU membership amongst the young were those more affluent. There are limitations with any data set and such an assertion will require greater research.


It is a very complex picture. But whatever the Brexit is, it is certainly not the voice of the poor.


If the Ashcroft survey is anything to go by it was the non working class vote which drove the Brexit vote.

"A majority of those working full-time or part-time voted to remain in the EU; most of those not working voted to leave. More than half of those retired on a private pension voted to leave, as did two thirds of those retired on a state pension."

kwackers
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby kwackers » 11 Jul 2019, 12:54pm

pete75 wrote:"A majority of those working full-time or part-time voted to remain in the EU; most of those not working voted to leave. More than half of those retired on a private pension voted to leave, as did two thirds of those retired on a state pension."

When it doesn't affect you idealism is cheap.

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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 11 Jul 2019, 12:59pm

pete75 wrote:If the Ashcroft survey is anything to go by it was the non working class vote which drove the Brexit vote.

"A majority of those working full-time or part-time voted to remain in the EU; most of those not working voted to leave. More than half of those retired on a private pension voted to leave, as did two thirds of those retired on a state pension."


And these are the ones sitting on assets.

I think the confusion between income and wealth is crucial. It's a (deliberate) mistake my MP makes when she talks about equality.

These days many 'ordinary hardworking families' in which both parents work, depend on Tax Credits or Universal Credit in order to survive. Their income is high but it all disappears in food and rent/mortgage.

p.s. That Telegraph headline!
Britain's ruling classes were only group to vote to stay in the EU at referendum, major new report finds

That's 16 million people ruling the country?

pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 11 Jul 2019, 1:14pm

bovlomov wrote:
pete75 wrote:If the Ashcroft survey is anything to go by it was the non working class vote which drove the Brexit vote.

"A majority of those working full-time or part-time voted to remain in the EU; most of those not working voted to leave. More than half of those retired on a private pension voted to leave, as did two thirds of those retired on a state pension."


And these are the ones sitting on assets.

I think the confusion between income and wealth is crucial. It's a (deliberate) mistake my MP makes when she talks about equality.

These days many 'ordinary hardworking families' in which both parents work, depend on Tax Credits or Universal Credit in order to survive. Their income is high but it all disappears in food and rent/mortgage.

p.s. That Telegraph headline!
Britain's ruling classes were only group to vote to stay in the EU at referendum, major new report finds

That's 16 million people ruling the country?


And if they really were the ruling classes we wouldn't be leaving.

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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 11 Jul 2019, 1:26pm

Further down the same Telegraph article:
The report [from the Centre for Social Justice and Legatum Institute] – titled “48:52 Healing A Divided Britain” – urges Theresa May’s Government to bring in policies with a “renewed commitment to strengthening families through marriage and relationship skills...".

Legatum Institute? Marriage and relationship skills? These are the same people who are supporting Johnson.

andrec
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby andrec » 11 Jul 2019, 1:40pm

bovlomov wrote:
andrec wrote:
bovlomov wrote:Have you a source for this?


Yes, the internet has a wealth of articles saying this . The wealthy voted Remain, so a Brexit coup by them seems unlikely.

'At every level of earning there is a direct correlation between household income and your likelihood to vote for leaving the EU'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/0 ... -in-the-e/

Yes, this might be a simplistic interpretation. Income is not the same as wealth. The most important factor seems to have been age. Retired people may have lower incomes but they also might have smaller overheads and greater assets.

Here's some analysis of Ashcroft's poll from the LSE.
What we will highlight in this post is straightforward: according to Lord Ashcroft’s polling data, differences in voting patterns appear to divide along the lines of age (above all else), then by social attitudes, and then by education, with older, socially conservative and less well-educated voters more likely to vote to leave the EU than younger, socially liberal and better educated voters.

First, it has been assumed that a despondent working-class vote drove Britain from EU membership. Secondly, it has also been taken for granted that the young were overwhelmingly Europhile. Given the Ashcroft data, it could be suggested that the poorest in British society simply did not turn out to vote, whilst the loudest voices in favour of EU membership amongst the young were those more affluent. There are limitations with any data set and such an assertion will require greater research.


It is a very complex picture. But whatever the Brexit is, it is certainly not the voice of the poor.


It wasn't a coup by the wealthy either, which was the point I was contesting. Brexit had widespread support across the UK which is why Remain lost. What we can be certain about is the reaction of some Remainers to their defeat. They decided to tell us the result was not valid because they have a low opinion of people who voted Leave. As a football fan I've always enjoyed it when opposing fans react badly to a victory by my team, though their impoliteness, anger and frustration is always short lived. The minority of vocal, irate and less than impeccably polite Remainers need to realise that being a poor loser is a source of great amusement to winners, and does nothing to advance their cause.

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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 11 Jul 2019, 2:05pm

andrec wrote:It wasn't a coup by the wealthy either, which was the point I was contesting. Brexit had widespread support across the UK which is why Remain lost. What we can be certain about is the reaction of some Remainers to their defeat. They decided to tell us the result was not valid because they have a low opinion of people who voted Leave. As a football fan I've always enjoyed it when opposing fans react badly to a victory by my team, though their impoliteness, anger and frustration is always short lived. The minority of vocal, irate and less than impeccably polite Remainers need to realise that being a poor loser is a source of great amusement to winners, and does nothing to advance their cause.

Well look at the people running Brexit. The disaster capitalists. The greedy. The selfish. The people who have spent their lives laughing at the poor - sometimes literally. The people who have spent their lives fighting laws that protect the workers and the poor. It very much is a coup by the wealthy - even if it wasn't only the wealthy that supported it.

Has anyone here cited their opinion of Leave voters as a reason why they don't accept the result? There might have been one or two. You must know, however, that this is not the thrust of Remainer arguments.

I take note of these declarations of amusement.