** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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al_yrpal
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby al_yrpal » 17 Jul 2019, 5:29pm

List what we lost and then list what we gained with a more competitive £, fuller employment, increased and more effective public spending and higher wages and your assertion might make some sense. Not being an economist and not being in possession of the full facts personally I wouldnt dare.

Al
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 17 Jul 2019, 5:30pm

roubaixtuesday wrote:
al_yrpal wrote:Rees Mogg is forecasting no deal will give the economy an £80 bn boost which is the polar opposite of what Eeyor and the Treasury are saying. It will be interesting to see who is right? RM follows in the footsteps of his Dad, both astute investors. Perhaps reality lies somewhere in between? ie no change economically... :D

Al


Well, them and quite literally every reputable economist.

Who knows who is right? It's not as though the revival of the framework for 40% of our trade has any predictable consequences, is it ? Best just guess.

In support of his view, Mogg cites
...several recent models employed by economists independent of the Government, notably the World Trade Model developed at Cardiff University...

He only links to one. Minford. Unless he gives sources, we should assume several = one. Minford is completely on his own. As you say, it isn't only Treasury economists with whom he is at odds. It's all reputable economists, both here and abroad. Of course, in Mogg's world, any economist who challenges him must be, by definition, part of the government.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 17 Jul 2019, 5:39pm

Anyway, isn't it the Minford model that predicts elimination of UK manufacturing and an increase in wage inequality? Good for Mogg, perhaps. Not so much for the Leave voters of Boston, Lincolnshire.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby kwackers » 17 Jul 2019, 5:47pm

al_yrpal wrote:List what we lost and then list what we gained with a more competitive £, fuller employment, increased and more effective public spending and higher wages and your assertion might make some sense. Not being an economist and not being in possession of the full facts personally I wouldnt dare.

Al

More competitive pound? It should in theory have created an export boom - but where was it? Nobody can find it!
I'm sure there were some winners but overall not. Even our recent manufacturing boom turned out to be nothing more than stockpiling.

Fuller employment - well employment has always been pretty decent. I appreciate you like zero hours contracts and assume those doing it are also big fans.

More effective public spending! Seriously you're having a laugh, at this point I'd call you a troll because honestly you must either be one or live in cloud cuckoo land if you can't see the reductions and damage it's having - even the Tories say it's gone too far!

What we've lost is a huge list, car plants not just closing but with no signs of investment and this despite the fact they can't make electric cars fast enough, we should be laughing all the way to the bank as we shift production over to EV's but no. The only exception so far is Jaguar but even they're not overly keen on brexit from what I can gather.

Medicine and science projects and committees we're now excluded from, lack of investment in same - if you're in the UK and a scientist then good luck getting any grants for your research and forget about the big projects.

The current loss due to brexit is estimated at 2% of GDP or £40 billion a year so even if Moggs was right its going to take years before we're even quits.

Various banks have already moved their headquarters as have a number of other companies and at the root level companies like the one I work for struggle finding staff because we can't entice folk from outside and because a fair number of the better UK folk are already either moving abroad or thinking about it.
Bruegel estimate £1.4 trillion in assets has already been moved outside of the UK.

Current wage calculations suggest people are still poorer by the time everything is taken into account and it isn't getting better. So a few small wage rises after years of austerity is hardly great news particularly when they're being eaten away by other things - like inflation and more expensive imports.

Seriously I could go and on but if you want to stick your head in the sand, listen to an idiot that hasn't even got the basics right and believe it when they say it's all going to be brilliant then knock yourself out.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby al_yrpal » 17 Jul 2019, 5:50pm

roubaixtuesday wrote:
al_yrpal wrote:Rees Mogg is forecasting no deal will give the economy an £80 bn boost which is the polar opposite of what Eeyor and the Treasury are saying. It will be interesting to see who is right? RM follows in the footsteps of his Dad, both astute investors. Perhaps reality lies somewhere in between? ie no change economically... :D

Al


Well, them and quite literally every reputable economist.

Who knows who is right? It's not as though the removal of the framework for 40% of our trade has any predictable consequences, is it ? Best just guess.


Yes, but all the reputable economists and the Govenor and the Chancellor made predictions that the economy would collapse after the Brexit vote and it didnt. On the contrary things got better except for the overvalued £. The 'experts' were all proved wrong and are now totally discredited. I suppose that people like you that live in France have suffered a bit. But then thats the risk you take when your income comes from the UK and you live abroad. There isnt much sympathy for expats in Blighty. Whatever happens trade will continue in some form with EU countries and the plan is to increase beneficial trade, especially worldwide free trade that doest harm our Agriculture and Industries, painful for some but in time beneficial for all. The trembling cynics cant see it, but some people can.

Al
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby PDQ Mobile » 17 Jul 2019, 5:56pm

Vorpal wrote:I am quite certain the Britain will eventually recover from this whichever way it goes. Both Brexit and remaining in the EU have potential either way. But so far, there's been 3 years of bickering, and all too little of either planning or success. I don't, TBF, expect much better from the next 3 years.

Even though I voted remain, I could see benefits of Brexit. If I had seen those benefits being realised, I might very well have been won over to the Brexit camp. Instead, I see the nation becoming more divided, and both remainers and brexiters deriding one another for nothing more than differing opinions.

It makes me sad.

I can relate to the sadness.
Our poor UK divided as never before in my lifetime I think.
Divide and rule, an old, but ever so apt statement.

Our great strength was always our sense of humour, IMV, our ability to laugh at ourselves as much or more than we laughed at others.

I would be interested in your view, Vorpal, about the positives of leaving?
Such positives have become a rare feature on here.

My own feeling is one of wanting to stay in the European project. I believe the positives far outweigh the negatives.

It also seems on a personal level that I am about to lose significant freedoms.
I think it reasonable to ask those who are happy about, and voted for that loss of freedoms, to give me fair and considered reasons.
Those reasons have simply not been forthcoming.



I ask people I meet as well as forum members for their take on things.
Notable reasons given for wanting to leave are (total) disillusion with all the political sphere from local to national, the EU dragged fully into the domestic one in people's minds; though that was clearly a deliberate strategy of this Govt. for many years; "let's blame the EU get ourselves off the austerity hook".

Others say "we're giving them (the EU) all that money" as if it was just a one way affair.

Mostly they are rather ignorant about European affairs, it's just "them over there".

Those kinds of reasons are a sad reflection on our own UK press as much as anything.
Some sectors really are a dumbing down now. Scarily so. Very little of worth or positive comes out of them.
Daily Mail notable.

For clearly we have as a nation, and Wales in particular, benefitted a good deal from membership. Funding for old housing stock improvements, transport infrastructure, woodland schemes and general agricultural support to name a few.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby al_yrpal » 17 Jul 2019, 6:04pm

kwackers wrote:
al_yrpal wrote:List what we lost and then list what we gained with a more competitive £, fuller employment, increased and more effective public spending and higher wages and your assertion might make some sense. Not being an economist and not being in possession of the full facts personally I wouldnt dare.

Al

More competitive pound? It should in theory have created an export boom - but where was it? Nobody can find it!
I'm sure there were some winners but overall not. Even our recent manufacturing boom turned out to be nothing more than stockpiling.

Fuller employment - well employment has always been pretty decent. I appreciate you like zero hours contracts and assume those doing it are also big fans.

More effective public spending! Seriously you're having a laugh, at this point I'd call you a troll because honestly you must either be one or live in cloud cuckoo land if you can't see the reductions and damage it's having - even the Tories say it's gone too far!

What we've lost is a huge list, car plants not just closing but with no signs of investment and this despite the fact they can't make electric cars fast enough, we should be laughing all the way to the bank as we shift production over to EV's but no. The only exception so far is Jaguar but even they're not overly keen on brexit from what I can gather.

Medicine and science projects and committees we're now excluded from, lack of investment in same - if you're in the UK and a scientist then good luck getting any grants for your research and forget about the big projects.

The current loss due to brexit is estimated at 2% of GDP or £40 billion a year so even if Moggs was right its going to take years before we're even quits.

Various banks have already moved their headquarters as have a number of other companies and at the root level companies like the one I work for struggle finding staff because we can't entice folk from outside and because a fair number of the better UK folk are already either moving abroad or thinking about it.
Bruegel estimate £1.4 trillion in assets has already been moved outside of the UK.

Current wage calculations suggest people are still poorer by the time everything is taken into account and it isn't getting better. So a few small wage rises after years of austerity is hardly great news particularly when they're being eaten away by other things - like inflation and more expensive imports.

Seriously I could go and on but if you want to stick your head in the sand, listen to an idiot that hasn't even got the basics right and believe it when they say it's all going to be brilliant then knock yourself out.


Thats just a half baked list of pessimistic assertions. The City is still there, the minnows in Paris and Frankfurt are not significant, the car plants are still there and its the Chinese coming off the boil thats reduced demand not the fear of Brexit. The wage rises are real. Yes, the EU are trying to make things more difficult for us as they always have, another good reason to get out.

Seriously, you should get out of Britain whilst the going is good. You would certainly be much happier. How about China, if you like fog, traffic jams and hate British culture, could be just the place?

Al
Touring on a bicycle is a great way to explore and appreciate the countryside and towns you pass through. CTC gone but not forgotten!

pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 17 Jul 2019, 6:23pm

al_yrpal wrote:
kwackers wrote:
al_yrpal wrote:List what we lost and then list what we gained with a more competitive £, fuller employment, increased and more effective public spending and higher wages and your assertion might make some sense. Not being an economist and not being in possession of the full facts personally I wouldnt dare.

Al

More competitive pound? It should in theory have created an export boom - but where was it? Nobody can find it!
I'm sure there were some winners but overall not. Even our recent manufacturing boom turned out to be nothing more than stockpiling.

Fuller employment - well employment has always been pretty decent. I appreciate you like zero hours contracts and assume those doing it are also big fans.

More effective public spending! Seriously you're having a laugh, at this point I'd call you a troll because honestly you must either be one or live in cloud cuckoo land if you can't see the reductions and damage it's having - even the Tories say it's gone too far!

What we've lost is a huge list, car plants not just closing but with no signs of investment and this despite the fact they can't make electric cars fast enough, we should be laughing all the way to the bank as we shift production over to EV's but no. The only exception so far is Jaguar but even they're not overly keen on brexit from what I can gather.

Medicine and science projects and committees we're now excluded from, lack of investment in same - if you're in the UK and a scientist then good luck getting any grants for your research and forget about the big projects.

The current loss due to brexit is estimated at 2% of GDP or £40 billion a year so even if Moggs was right its going to take years before we're even quits.

Various banks have already moved their headquarters as have a number of other companies and at the root level companies like the one I work for struggle finding staff because we can't entice folk from outside and because a fair number of the better UK folk are already either moving abroad or thinking about it.
Bruegel estimate £1.4 trillion in assets has already been moved outside of the UK.

Current wage calculations suggest people are still poorer by the time everything is taken into account and it isn't getting better. So a few small wage rises after years of austerity is hardly great news particularly when they're being eaten away by other things - like inflation and more expensive imports.

Seriously I could go and on but if you want to stick your head in the sand, listen to an idiot that hasn't even got the basics right and believe it when they say it's all going to be brilliant then knock yourself out.


Thats just a half baked list of pessimistic assertions. I think you have your head stuck somewhere and its not in the sand. The City is still there, the minnows in Paris and Frankfurt are not significant, the car plants are still there and its the Chinese coming off the boil thats reduced demand not the fear of Brexit. The wage rises are real. Yes, the EU are trying to make things more difficult for us as they always have, another good reason to get out.

Seriously, you should get out of Britain whilst the going is good. You would certainly be much happier. How about China, if you like fog, traffic jams and hate British culture, could be just the place?

Al


You've had the entire 40 plus years of our EU membership to clear off to a non EU nation. Why didn't you take your own advice and do so?

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby PDQ Mobile » 17 Jul 2019, 6:42pm

al_yrpal wrote:
Yes, but all the reputable economists and the Govenor and the Chancellor made predictions that the economy would collapse after the Brexit vote and it didnt. On the contrary things got better except for the overvalued £. The 'experts' were all proved wrong and are now totally discredited. I suppose that people like you that live in France have suffered a bit. But then thats the risk you take when your income comes from the UK and you live abroad. There isnt much sympathy for expats in Blighty. Whatever happens trade will continue in some form with EU countries and the plan is to increase beneficial trade, especially worldwide free trade that doest harm our Agriculture and Industries, painful for some but in time beneficial for all. The trembling cynics cant see it, but some people can.

Al

What he "experts said was that the UK economy would suffer if we left.
And we ain't left - yet.

But as Kwackers points out many negative things have happened already with contingency plans being made and money, manufacturing and services moved to within the EU.

The " overvalued pound is getting to rock bottom against several major currencies.
It will and has already increased inflation.
To rely on weakening a currency to increase competitiveness is the economics of the madhouse. Ask Venezuelans for example.

As Mrs Thatcher notably once said" a strong currency has to be earned".

Any economic fool or banker can make a country more competitive in the short term by weakening the currency, even I could do that, but it is short term and in the end things catch up.
Look at countries with strong and stable currencies. Their inflation is notably less or even non existent because as the currencies around them loose value they get more for their buck.
Especially if like the UK they are net importers. But even inland inflation tends to be suppressed.

Not much sympathy for expats?
Why ever not? Axe to grind? Did they manage where one failed?

They are not true expats in the EU of course, merely exercising their right to work and dwell on equal terms as at home.
And why not?

Just like moving to the SW of England really?
Go the whole hog and cross onto Cornwall and the feeling of being somewhere really exotic becomes palpable. Certainly in not such distant times the place had it's own distinct language and culture.

Rees Mogg is a speculator.
He speculates on currency and commodity movements. This benefits only Rees Mogg.
He is also a moral hypocrite of the first order.
How he finds the time to do all the money dealing, appear on media, be a big landowner, write a book and be an MP Somerset, beats me.
Perhaps the good folk of Somerset will remove him next time around. A distinct possibilty I think.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby al_yrpal » 17 Jul 2019, 6:50pm

Pete, I love my country, despite being an unwilling part of the EU Empire, its still a great place to live and its been very good to me. After Brexit it will be even better.

Al
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661-Pete
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby 661-Pete » 17 Jul 2019, 6:51pm

al_yrpal wrote:Seriously, you should get out of Britain whilst the going is good. You would certainly be much happier. How about China, if you like fog, traffic jams and hate British culture, could be just the place?
As it happens, our son visited China late last year. He avoided the places with the smog and traffic jams (didn't go anywhere near Beijing). China is a vast country and the population is well spread out. Anyway, he says he thoroughly enjoyed the trip.

Only big problem is the language. You'd just have to persevere...

And honestly, is it not possible to like British culture, and like the culture of other countries, at the same time? Or are the two mutually exclusive? None of the Remainers on this thread have said they hate British culture as is. Ok one or two of us have said, some aspects of it are a bit silly - like the pomp attending the Royals - but that's not a matter of hate. Just, perhaps, lack of appreciation.

Btw, talking of foreign 'cultures' and ceremony: while we were in Peru last month I snapped the guards parading in front of the Presidential palace in Lima. Goose-stepping.
Goose-step.jpg

I believe that, apart from the Greek Evzoni (which isn't quite the same thing), this is the first time I've ever witnessed goose-stepping soldiers. A very un-British culture, I think you'll agree (although who knows? The way Britain is going at the moment, we may well have goose-stepping in front of Buckingham Palace before we know it!). Anyway, did I 'hate' what I saw? Of course not! A bit amused, but that's a normal reaction. Memories of John Cleese...

No. Nor is there anything in Brit culture that I positively hate. Except possibly blood sports. But those are on the way out...
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity.
Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments...
--- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).

andrec
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby andrec » 17 Jul 2019, 6:55pm

pete75 wrote:
al_yrpal wrote:
kwackers wrote:More competitive pound? It should in theory have created an export boom - but where was it? Nobody can find it!
I'm sure there were some winners but overall not. Even our recent manufacturing boom turned out to be nothing more than stockpiling.

Fuller employment - well employment has always been pretty decent. I appreciate you like zero hours contracts and assume those doing it are also big fans.

More effective public spending! Seriously you're having a laugh, at this point I'd call you a troll because honestly you must either be one or live in cloud cuckoo land if you can't see the reductions and damage it's having - even the Tories say it's gone too far!

What we've lost is a huge list, car plants not just closing but with no signs of investment and this despite the fact they can't make electric cars fast enough, we should be laughing all the way to the bank as we shift production over to EV's but no. The only exception so far is Jaguar but even they're not overly keen on brexit from what I can gather.

Medicine and science projects and committees we're now excluded from, lack of investment in same - if you're in the UK and a scientist then good luck getting any grants for your research and forget about the big projects.

The current loss due to brexit is estimated at 2% of GDP or £40 billion a year so even if Moggs was right its going to take years before we're even quits.

Various banks have already moved their headquarters as have a number of other companies and at the root level companies like the one I work for struggle finding staff because we can't entice folk from outside and because a fair number of the better UK folk are already either moving abroad or thinking about it.
Bruegel estimate £1.4 trillion in assets has already been moved outside of the UK.

Current wage calculations suggest people are still poorer by the time everything is taken into account and it isn't getting better. So a few small wage rises after years of austerity is hardly great news particularly when they're being eaten away by other things - like inflation and more expensive imports.

Seriously I could go and on but if you want to stick your head in the sand, listen to an idiot that hasn't even got the basics right and believe it when they say it's all going to be brilliant then knock yourself out.


Thats just a half baked list of pessimistic assertions. I think you have your head stuck somewhere and its not in the sand. The City is still there, the minnows in Paris and Frankfurt are not significant, the car plants are still there and its the Chinese coming off the boil thats reduced demand not the fear of Brexit. The wage rises are real. Yes, the EU are trying to make things more difficult for us as they always have, another good reason to get out.

Seriously, you should get out of Britain whilst the going is good. You would certainly be much happier. How about China, if you like fog, traffic jams and hate British culture, could be just the place?

Al


You've had the entire 40 plus years of our EU membership to clear off to a non EU nation. Why didn't you take your own advice and do so?


An Leave person who wants to live under the rule of a parliament of his compatriots cannot solve this problem by emigrating. A Remainer can. He can emigrate to another EU country and be ruled by his beloved EU parliament, a body comprised mostly of foreigners (all foreigners after Brexit), and which he is convinced can make much better laws than Westminster.

roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby roubaixtuesday » 17 Jul 2019, 7:08pm

andrec wrote:An Leave person who wants to live under the rule of a parliament of his compatriots cannot solve this problem by emigrating. A Remainer can. He can emigrate to another EU country and be ruled by his beloved EU parliament, a body comprised mostly of foreigners (all foreigners after Brexit), and which he is convinced can make much better laws than Westminster.


Ah well, that's ok then.

Please carry on telling people you don't agree with they should leave the country. :roll:

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661-Pete
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby 661-Pete » 17 Jul 2019, 7:11pm

andrec wrote:....his beloved EU parliament ... which he is convinced can make much better laws than Westminster.
That's not hard, seeing as Westminster hasn't made any meaningful laws since they started giving over all their time to arguing about Brex**it...

Ask me another.
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity.
Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments...
--- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).

andrec
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby andrec » 17 Jul 2019, 7:22pm

roubaixtuesday wrote:
andrec wrote:An Leave person who wants to live under the rule of a parliament of his compatriots cannot solve this problem by emigrating. A Remainer can. He can emigrate to another EU country and be ruled by his beloved EU parliament, a body comprised mostly of foreigners (all foreigners after Brexit), and which he is convinced can make much better laws than Westminster.


Ah well, that's ok then.

Please carry on telling people you don't agree with they should leave the country. :roll:


I've not told anybody to do anything. But sometimes it is better if a person does leave a party, a job, a marriage, a sports club, a pub gathering etc if they seem unhappy there and their constant moaning and complaining is tiresome for others. After Brexit the UK might just not be the right place to live for some people for the same reason. They'd be happier abroad and everyone else would be happier without them. I believe that's called a win win solution.