** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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windmiller
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby windmiller » 20 Jul 2019, 1:13pm

Even the bookmakers got the result drastically wrong. They are usually much more accurate than pollsters as they can't afford not to be

Vorpal
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Vorpal » 20 Jul 2019, 1:22pm

Thread trimmed again :(

Please refrain from personal attacks, implying others are simple, etc. It makes my life & moderating this thread much easier. Moderators are volunteers, and work to maintain the forum primarily as a resource for cyclists.

If personal attacks continue, it will result in one or more of the following:
-the attacker(s) being banned either temporarily or permanently from the forum
-the thread being locked
-continued, and possibly less tolerant pruning of the thread
-complete removal of this thread

Increasingly, valid points are being removed because either the post includes personal attacks, or a response to them, and it simply takes too much time to sift the valid, reasonably stated points from petty sniping.

I'm frankly getting fed up with it.

p.s. an additional appeal to use the quote function, so if we do have to prune stuff, we can easily tell who said what
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kwackers
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby kwackers » 20 Jul 2019, 1:50pm

windmiller wrote:Even the bookmakers got the result drastically wrong. They are usually much more accurate than pollsters as they can't afford not to be

I thought bookmakers start with a guestimate and then as the money comes in adjust the odds accordingly.
If everyone who bet did so on a leave victory then that would indicate a leave victory was very likely, ditto the opposite.

You could argue its the same system pollsters use, i.e. large scale sampling with the main difference being how self selection manifests itself in the two forms.
Overall though I'd go with pollsters over bookies, I think the science behind polling allows you to make some adjustment for self selection. Bookies otoh have no easy way to figure it out.

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661-Pete
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby 661-Pete » 20 Jul 2019, 4:03pm

I know little about bookmakers and betting shops - never having darkened their doors - but I thought it was received wisdom, that if the favourite wins, the bookies lose out. Conversely, if an outsider wins, bookies net a big profit.

So if the bookies made Remain the favourite, on short odds, quietly expecting Leave to win, they were on to a winner.

Proves nothing.
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity.
Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments...
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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 20 Jul 2019, 5:33pm

661-Pete wrote:I know little about bookmakers and betting shops - never having darkened their doors - but I thought it was received wisdom, that if the favourite wins, the bookies lose out. Conversely, if an outsider wins, bookies net a big profit.

So if the bookies made Remain the favourite, on short odds, quietly expecting Leave to win, they were on to a winner.

Proves nothing.

Don't bookies lay off bets to minimise risk? So even if they do lose, it'll be a comparatively small loss. Any bookie that took bets for only one horse in a two horse race would soon be bankrupt if it didn't spread the risk.

Yes, it proves nothing - least of all about the expectations of Remainers.

andrec
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby andrec » 20 Jul 2019, 5:55pm

Bookmakers wouldn't offer odds on a race which was run again and again until the right winner emerged.

roubaixtuesday
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby roubaixtuesday » 20 Jul 2019, 6:15pm

windmiller wrote:Even the bookmakers got the result drastically wrong. They are usually much more accurate than pollsters as they can't afford not to be


Does the fact you've changed the subject from polls to bookmakers mean you accept the reality that the pre referendum polls were accurate?

Or, if not, could you post some evidence for your assertions?

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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 20 Jul 2019, 6:37pm

andrec wrote:Bookmakers wouldn't offer odds on a race which was run again and again until the right winner emerged.

When bookmakers suspect fraud, they don't pay out and they call the police.

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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 20 Jul 2019, 8:52pm

Lovely review here, of Rod Liddle's book, The Great Betrayal.

In short, Liddle complains of an elite contemptuous of ordinary British citizens. That's now, but in 2014 Liddle's book, Selfish, Whining Monkeys he describes Britain as “a nation of broken families clamouring about their entitlements siring ill-educated and undisciplined kids unfamiliar with the concept of right and wrong” and he writes of "the hulking fat tattooed chavmonkey standing in the queue at Burger King”...and so on.

Could it be that much of the outrage about the attitude of the liberal elite is manufactured? Clearly, in Liddle's case it is.

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Paulatic
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Paulatic » 21 Jul 2019, 8:25am

This sums it up...
F140877F-4C87-4E88-9E06-F827D1306211.jpeg
Whatever I am, wherever I am, this is me. This is my life

https://stcleve.wordpress.com/category/lejog/

Oldjohnw
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Oldjohnw » 21 Jul 2019, 8:32am

Paulatic wrote:This sums it up...
F140877F-4C87-4E88-9E06-F827D1306211.jpeg


+ 10
John

Cycling and recycling

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Cunobelin
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Cunobelin » 21 Jul 2019, 10:52am

661-Pete wrote:The error in the predictions of opinion polls, as compared with the actual result in June 2016, wasn't as great as all that. It may have been bigger than the sampling error in some cases, but not by many sigmas.

It may be that the actual number of mind-changers - from Leave to Remain - is not as great as some polls predict. But I still maintain that there are a significant number.

And don't forget that the pollsters in USA correctly forecast that Clinton would get the larger number of votes. They didn't correctly account for gerrymandering of course...



The US Presidency and the number of votes have not correlated for may years

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661-Pete
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby 661-Pete » 21 Jul 2019, 11:27am

Cunobelin wrote:The US Presidency and the number of votes have not correlated for may years
The procedure they follow strongly reminds me of this sketch:
https://youtu.be/cVhocDlrD7c?t=480
Enjoy!
Suppose that this room is a lift. The support breaks and down we go with ever-increasing velocity.
Let us pass the time by performing physical experiments...
--- Arthur Eddington (creator of the Eddington Number).

andrec
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby andrec » 21 Jul 2019, 12:38pm

Paulatic wrote:This sums it up...
F140877F-4C87-4E88-9E06-F827D1306211.jpeg


She's going to lose everything she has? I doubt it. She'll lose her local MEPs and that's about it, and if I'd asked her the name of those MEPs five years ago I'd be have been willing to bet she couldn't name them. She is obviously one of those apocalyptic Remainers with no sense of proportion or perspective.

merseymouth
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby merseymouth » 21 Jul 2019, 12:43pm

Hello all :D , Can't seem to find any response to my "Quantitive Easing" cost query? I wonder why???
Maybe it cost UK Ltd nothing at all? Maybe the banks were merely crying wolf! IGICB MM