** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

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Psamathe
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Psamathe » 10 Sep 2019, 12:59pm

bovlomov wrote:
Psamathe wrote:Seems more and more commentators are raising the possibility of a border in the Irish Sea and I can see the reasons they are thinking it now more likely. In part because Boris knows the EU would accept the change without any problem so it gives him something to go back to Parliament with "I've got a new deal ... I said they'd cave to my demands and they did ...". Plus he no longer needs the DUP as he's lost his majority anyway.

But many of the ERGy types have decided that there are many more things about the WA that they don't like, besides the backstop. That'll be the Brexit Party position too.

Still, he may get it through Parliament.

I wonder if getting it through Parliament is less important to Boris than "EU caved to my demands and did re-negotiate". He's having a General Election anyway. Changes to Backstop, untrue claims about reducing payment and significant changes to the political statement would allow him to claim "I did it, I succeeded despite the claims of saboteurs & collaborators ..."

Ian

mercalia
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mercalia » 10 Sep 2019, 1:13pm

so Boris has to ask for an extension. does it say when he has to? maybe send in the request at 11.59pm on 31st October?

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bovlomov
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby bovlomov » 10 Sep 2019, 1:14pm

Psamathe wrote:I wonder if getting it through Parliament is less important to Boris than "EU caved to my demands and did re-negotiate". He's having a General Election anyway. Changes to Backstop, untrue claims about reducing payment and significant changes to the political statement would allow him to claim "I did it, I succeeded despite the claims of saboteurs & collaborators ..."

If Parliament agrees to a WA, does he avoid a General Election? If so, he won't need the support of the Brexit Party.

Gosh, it's complicated. In any case, he has wound up the betrayal/treason/surrender narrative to such a tension, that anything he does will unleash the incontinent anger of his assumed support.

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horizon
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby horizon » 10 Sep 2019, 1:16pm

pete75 wrote:
horizon wrote:
bovlomov wrote:
According to Rees Mogg, we might break even after 50 years. Digby Jones thinks it will be nearer to a century.



That's as a country. As an individual, a community or as a business person subject to EU regulation you not only break even but win handsomely the day after Brexit. This isn't about the wealth or success of the UK: this is about the greater distribution of a diminished wealth to sections of the UK. Even if that pay-off is emotional and not financial it is still real and even tangible. Who gains from Brexit is complex but can be simplified and understood by listening to Leave supporters and finding out what they hope to gain. The "left-behinders" will be further behind but a little further ahead in relation to EU migrants than they were before. Brexit IMV is about the redistribution of (less) wealth not the increase or decrease in wealth of the UK as a whole. Telling Leavers that the UK will be poorer as a result of Brexit is as irrelevant as telling a lottery winner that their community, having sacrificed all their one pounds, will be worse off.


How so? What do you propose to make working EU migrants worse off?
The so called left behinders in unemployment blackspots like Grimsby , Hartlepool, Doncaster etc couldn't even be bothered to move a few miles in the UK to take up the jobs which attracted EU migrants here in the first place. They preferred to sit on their fat backsides, watching Jeremy Kyle, drawing the dole and moan about migrants taking all the jobs when moving within the UK could have got them those jobs. Nothing will change after Brexit.
The lottery winner is better off. Those leave voters in "left behind" area will , if anything, be worse off.
Do you really think there will be any re distribution of wealth after Brexit that benefits the worse off? If they get an emotional pay off , some sort of elation at leaving, it'll soon go when the reality hits.What will be the view in Sunderland when Nissan closes? The area's economy will be devastated but it will be as a result of the "democratic will of the people". It will also serve them right.


+ 1 Sorry, I have to agree with everything you say. But this idea that "After Brexit, I will be better off than my foreign neighbour who doesn't belong here in the way I do" is very powerful. If you have the sense of "them and us" then you will see their loss as your gain - and if you are British, then you gain and the other will lose. In practice of course, both will lose. There is less of this sense of deficiency when the economy is on the up and there is more to go round; but, as we know, the industries that enriched the leave-voting heartlands are no more and the culture that supported the workforce is irrelevant. Some of that can be placed at the door of the EU as trans-national competition is enforced (although it benefits Europe overall). It might also explain why Jeremy Corbyn supports Leave.
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kwackers
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby kwackers » 10 Sep 2019, 1:20pm

mercalia wrote:so Boris has to ask for an extension. does it say when he has to? maybe send in the request at 11.59pm on 31st October?

It still assumes it'll be granted. Didn't we have to give reasons back in March as to why we needed one?
(I had heard the French were making noises about saying "non")

It would be funny if it wasn't granted, one in the eye for the "they need us more than..." brigade.
They'd be torn between celebrating and condemning the EU for kicking us whilst down.
Wonder which way they'd blow?
My guess is both ways, leavers don't seem to have problems with contradiction.

mercalia
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby mercalia » 10 Sep 2019, 1:30pm

I hereby prorogue this thread for 5 weeks. :lol:

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Cugel
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Cugel » 10 Sep 2019, 1:33pm

horizon wrote:
Cugel wrote:Are you saying that the various delusions and paranoid fantasies about the EU held by many leavers are somehow cogent, worthy, to be catered to?
Cugel


Yes, I am. It was R D Laing who suggested that a catatonic patient in an asylum wasn't mad at all - if you had been through what he had been through, you too would be in his state. His unmoving silence was a logical, sensible response to his predicament.


Are you suggesting that those for leaving are somehow equivalent to the catatonic, so damaged by EU predations of some mysterious kind that they cannot function and need to be institutionalised, even if it is in R D Laing's more cosy asylum? I feel this is an analogy too far. One might, though, make a case that many for leaving are suffering those paranoid delusions I mentioned.

horizon wrote:Working class (and other) communities base their beliefs, culture and politics on the need to survive. In the case of white working class communities in industrial towns, they have built up a culture of language, habit, rules and identity that has enabled them to get through slumps, poverty, ill health, insecurity and the power of the state and their bosses. They also claim rights and privileges on account of the role of their families in fighting in two world wars and many others - King, Queen and country. They want occasionally to cash in on this goodwill in the bank.


What has any of that got to do with the EU? How does membership of the EU stop me, you or anyone from having our traditional beliefs, behaviours, institutions or identities? Are we somehow less British because we have the facility of the EU as well as that of Britain? What does the EU remove from "being British"? How is different from, say, being in The Commonwealth; or NATO; or any other international organisation that agrees to do some things in a similar way, not to deny national identity but to enable it's continuance? Do leavers really think being the 51st State of the USA or a vassal of some other large predatory state of the near or actual totalitarian kind will somehow be a better arrangement than membership of the EU as an equal participant?

I suspect you're right to identify such assumptions as a driving forces of much leaver thinking. Should we just accept it despite it being so clearly the result of the propaganda of a rabid right wing press owned and run, by and for, a predatory oligarchy who don't give a toss for Britain, it's traditions or it's citizens (who they would prefer become merely their subjects).

horizon wrote:Nearly everything the EU does challenges this security and privilege: it dilutes the identity of the local community through immigration, diminishes the differentiation between countries and takes away a sense of national (and thus their) ownership of laws and regulations. It might easily be shown to ride roughshod over local values such as thrift and a suspicion of sophistication. The last foothold that these communities have in a national identity is threatened wholesale by membership of the EU.


Immigration of EU nationals and other benefits of EU membership does nothing whatsoever to dilute the identity of local communities. And people who are concerned about the influx of large foreign cultural groups and mores are far more concerned about what we might call members of The Commonwealth, especially those of the "wrong" color and/or religion". But nor do these latter do anything to dilute the British culture you, me and anyone else cares to enjoy. A mosque or a synagogue at the end of the street, along with a shop selling exotic spices at the other, does not stop us going to church or having fish and chips, does it. In fact, it adds to and enhances an always dynamic British culture, built over centuries and containing menay threads of foreign origin and influence. Our very language is an amalgam of many others from the various waves of immigrants.

If there's an obvious culprit that's destroying, neglecting and disabling many aspects of British culture and traditions it's the neoliberal hegemony, with it's side effects of austerity, isolation, neglect and persecution of "the undeserving poor", degradation of the environment, financial tricks for impoverishing all but fat cats and shareholders (even some of them) and all the rest. If anything, the EU has been a brake on the worst excesses of Tory & New Labour kow-towing to "the market" and all it's deleterious effects of our culture, traditions and institutions.

But that's not what you'll read in the The Daily Borisgraph or the Hate Mail, of course.

horizon wrote:Little wonder they support Brexit. And little wonder that their concerns are easily exploited by a right-wing press that has another agenda but also supports Brexit. To tell these communities that they are about to be taken to the cleaners is one thing, not to address their concerns (and still expect them to vote Remain) is another. There are those in these communities who can rise above this narrow demarcation and find common cause with workers of other countries; but when we are in an industrial end-game, the waggons will be circled and a bitter last stand fought out.


Well, there we are - we agree after all. Perhaps the only difference we have is a degree of sympathy as well as empathy for the deluded paranoiac voters on your part whilst I have only the empathy but no patience with people who are all too keen to accept an innocent scapegoat to be mauled rather than deal with the pack of hyenas that have so obviously been not just at the goat but at the the throats of all the useful idiot voters that have kept them in power for decades now.

When "the working class Tory vote" meant only the usual Tory nastiness, it was tolerable. Now that many of those same voters (along with the more blue-rinsed little ingerlanders) have proven willing to vote not so much only for themselves but also to destroy the very fabric of the British State and polity ....

Cugel

francovendee
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby francovendee » 10 Sep 2019, 1:47pm

al_yrpal wrote:The article just confirms the figures and it's all from personal knowledge gained over 20 years. Keyboard warriors know only what they can read, it's not evidence

Al

Come on Al, I'm sure you have some proper evidence to show everyone?

pete75
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby pete75 » 10 Sep 2019, 3:35pm

horizon wrote:+ 1 Sorry, I have to agree with everything you say. But this idea that "After Brexit, I will be better off than my foreign neighbour who doesn't belong here in the way I do" is very powerful. If you have the sense of "them and us" then you will see their loss as your gain - and if you are British, then you gain and the other will lose. In practice of course, both will lose. There is less of this sense of deficiency when the economy is on the up and there is more to go round; but, as we know, the industries that enriched the leave-voting heartlands are no more and the culture that supported the workforce is irrelevant. Some of that can be placed at the door of the EU as trans-national competition is enforced (although it benefits Europe overall). It might also explain why Jeremy Corbyn supports Leave.


In other words you think Brexit will give a psychological boost to xenophobic bigots. You may well be right.

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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby reohn2 » 10 Sep 2019, 4:27pm

francovendee wrote:
al_yrpal wrote:The article just confirms the figures and it's all from personal knowledge gained over 20 years. Keyboard warriors know only what they can read, it's not evidence

Al

Come on Al, I'm sure you have some proper evidence to show everyone?

Oh,no he doesn't :lol:
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reohn2
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby reohn2 » 10 Sep 2019, 4:30pm

pete75 wrote:
horizon wrote:+ 1 Sorry, I have to agree with everything you say. But this idea that "After Brexit, I will be better off than my foreign neighbour who doesn't belong here in the way I do" is very powerful. If you have the sense of "them and us" then you will see their loss as your gain - and if you are British, then you gain and the other will lose. In practice of course, both will lose. There is less of this sense of deficiency when the economy is on the up and there is more to go round; but, as we know, the industries that enriched the leave-voting heartlands are no more and the culture that supported the workforce is irrelevant. Some of that can be placed at the door of the EU as trans-national competition is enforced (although it benefits Europe overall). It might also explain why Jeremy Corbyn supports Leave.


In other words you think Brexit will give a psychological boost to xenophobic bigots. You may well be right.

He most definelty is right it'll be open season on anyone with a foreign accent and worse still if they have a dark skin or dress differently too :roll:
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Cunobelin
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby Cunobelin » 10 Sep 2019, 4:45pm

Vorpal wrote:
Example... 2 million Bulgarians have left, its reckoned 2 million more will leave in the next few years. All that will be left will be the old and the Roma.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... 8063943568

Al

I don't know who 'reckons' 2 million have left, or will leave, but that goes against the available evidence... Even that article you linked, says 'almost 2 million' and doesn't tell you how many returned when the economy began to improve.

in 2017, 1,290,000 people born in Bulgaria were living in other countries

2011- 2017 number of Bulgarian emigrants: 24,103

Many of those 24,103 are students who will return to Bulgaria with education, language skills, and work experience, which can only benefit the economy there.

Their current economic growth and Gini index are both higher than the UK's.

https://www.caritas.eu/wordpress/wp-con ... ariaEN.pdf

al_yrpal wrote:The article just confirms the figures and it's all from personal knowledge gained over 20 years. Keyboard warriors know only what they can read, it's not evidence

Al


Personal knowledge? of Bulgaria?


Yep - Nice chap. I met him whilst at Wimbledon Common

Image

I hasten to add we both had legitimate reasons for being on the Common

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al_yrpal
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby al_yrpal » 10 Sep 2019, 5:03pm

No I dont have written evidence, its all first hand eyeball observation in Bulgaria working with and talking to Bulgarians of all sorts in Bulgaria. Where I live now where there are a lot of Bulgarians and Roma. Romania is apparently in the same position according to Bulgarians.

The only credible evidence I have ever seen from Remainers is changes in exchange rates, which I think has been good (sorry Expats) nothing else whatsoever.

I would like to see an Irish Sea frontier and a united Ireland, because I have Irish heritage. But, the NI bigots probably will oppose it just as Boris will probably oppose any deal that keeps us in the claws of the EU.

Al
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windmiller
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby windmiller » 10 Sep 2019, 5:23pm

Cunobelin wrote:
windmiller wrote:The only decent act that Bercow has performed is to declare his resignation. He is a complete disgrace to the title of "Speaker of the House of Commons".
He broke the cardinal rule of being none biased and manipulated the Brexit debate for his own dubious ends. The sycophantic fawning for the multiple disservices he orchestrated to this country was sickening to behold.

Good riddance!


WHich translates as didn't bend over and let Brexiters force their way through - that was very naughty


Well actually he did bend over many times to the remainers, though I doubt he was forced...blah blah very naughty.

merseymouth
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Re: ** The Brexit Thread ** - 'Brexit Means Brexit'

Postby merseymouth » 10 Sep 2019, 5:55pm

Hi Al, I agree about the Irish Sea border after a re-uniting of Ireland, should never have been subjected to division! Of course with Irish ancestry I would say that, but nearly 900 years of warring of the land we need to look back at our mistakes, then be big enough to admit it.
Then when we have done that and left the E.U. we should put a stop to he endless succession of HGV's wearing ruts across the country just to save Irish ports from investment? For too long we have been the needless corridor for Irish imports & exports, invest in their own ports & shipping.
Even if we where to remain in the E.U. I would push for those measures. IGICB MM