Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

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mercalia
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Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby mercalia » 20 Nov 2016, 9:15pm

Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

"European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the European Union."

seems like Nigel Farage has put the wind up them

if they try that then we should do our best to destroy the EU while we can?

Historically we we have been good at that?


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=200562&subid=7646217&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

kwackers
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby kwackers » 20 Nov 2016, 9:32pm

I read somewhere that we were so great and so important to them that they wouldn't do anything like this. Apparently they'd even risk the collapse of the EU just to sell us a few cars!

So nothing to worry about.

Psamathe
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby Psamathe » 20 Nov 2016, 9:39pm

mercalia wrote:...
seems like Nigel Farage has put the wind up them

if they try that then we should do our best to destroy the EU while we can?
...

I think probably more likely Le Pen is worrying them
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/marine-le-pen-poll-election-odds-latest-french-presidential-lead-sarkozy-a7428126.html wrote:Marine Le Pen takes huge lead over Nicolas Sarkozy in French first round presidential election poll
Results likely to add to growing fears far-right leader could be on course for victory in wake of shock Brexit and US presidential votes

Why should we try and destroy anything we have decided to leave ? We always knew if we decided to leave the EU would do everything it had to so stabilise itself and that always meant they would put their interests ahead of the UK's interests - just as we are putting our interests ahead of the interests of the EU.

I think this talk of us doing our best to "damage the EU" is a fallacy as they "hold all the cards" The Leave proclamations of "they need us more than we need them" have been shown to be rubbish (even German motor manufacturers have come out and said that EU stability is more important to them than the UK market.

Ian

PH
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby PH » 20 Nov 2016, 9:40pm

A lot of speculation there, but all that's being said is we won't get free trade without free movement.
Did anyone seriously think we would?

Psamathe
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby Psamathe » 20 Nov 2016, 9:48pm

PH wrote:A lot of speculation there, but all that's being said is we won't get free trade without free movement.
Did anyone seriously think we would?

And I think that not having the free trade will be a significant problem for the UK. Maybe we can make trade deals with others but there will be a big time gap (trade deals take time to negotiate) so we'll have a reasonable time with no free trade deals.

And that is assuming the WTO accept the UK joining given our reputation and history as a "troublesome" country (WTO is not open to anybody and the existing members have to approve a country joining (takes a two thirds majority and that is after a fair amount of preparation and negotiation with other WTO members so not an automatic right). And with Fox winding everybody up it is quite possible it will be more of a hurdle than politicians are letting on.

Ian

kwackers
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby kwackers » 20 Nov 2016, 9:50pm

PH wrote:A lot of speculation there, but all that's being said is we won't get free trade without free movement.
Did anyone seriously think we would?

Yes. We were promised exactly that by the supporters of brexit as they charged headlong into the darkness.

irc
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby irc » 20 Nov 2016, 10:06pm

Psamathe wrote:And that is assuming the WTO accept the UK joining given our reputation and history as a "troublesome" country (WTO is not open to anybody and the existing members have to approve a country joining


Is that the same WTO of which the UK is already a member? How else do you think the UK traded with countries outside the EU where there wasn't a specific trade agreement?

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/wh ... org6_e.htm

Psamathe
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby Psamathe » 20 Nov 2016, 10:21pm

irc wrote:
Psamathe wrote:And that is assuming the WTO accept the UK joining given our reputation and history as a "troublesome" country (WTO is not open to anybody and the existing members have to approve a country joining


Is that the same WTO of which the UK is already a member? How else do you think the UK traded with countries outside the EU where there wasn't a specific trade agreement?

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/wh ... org6_e.htm

UK's membership terms are bundled in with the EU's. So when we leave the EU if we want to operate under WTO rules we have to apply to be a full member (which means negotiating with 162 other members)

From the Financial Times
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:TkyWmTaXtyoJ:https://www.ft.com/content/5741129a-4510-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d+&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk wrote:Can the UK just go ahead and trade under WTO terms as soon as it leaves the EU?

No. In practice, the UK would have to detach itself from the EU and regularise its position within the WTO before it could sign its own trade agreements, including with the EU. As Roberto Azevêdo, the WTO’s director-general, said recently, there is no precedent for a WTO member extricating itself from an economic union while inside the organisation. The process would not be easy and would likely take years before the UK’s WTO position was settled, not least because all other member states would have to agree.
...
So what is the realistic short-term prospect for WTO access to European and other markets?

As Mr Ungphakorn says: “None of this is impossible, but it won’t be sorted out quickly.” While the schedules are being agreed, the UK’s legal status as a trading nation will be undetermined, with all that implies for uncertainty and business decisions.

The speed of the UK being able to trade on WTO terms in its own right will partly depend on political will. Yet even if other governments co-operate and accept London’s proposals, the legal processes and paperwork are likely to take years.

Brexiters want to turn the UK into a global trading powerhouse. But until the country has sorted out its legal standing, it risks merely sitting on the sidelines.

Original link https://www.ft.com/content/5741129a-4510-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d

Not as straightforward as the Leave campaigners said (but then they were saying we would remain part of the EU Free Trade Area).

Ian

pete75
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby pete75 » 21 Nov 2016, 12:30am

Haven't Fox, Davis and May been strongly hinting they want a hard Brexit anyway? They shouldn't complain if Europe gives what they want.

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syklist
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby syklist » 21 Nov 2016, 6:33am

pete75 wrote:Haven't Fox, Davis and May been strongly hinting they want a hard Brexit anyway? They shouldn't complain if Europe gives what they want.

Of course they have, but that doesn't fit with the supporters of brexit narrative of "The EU wants to stiff us guv!"

Be careful when you wish for something.
So long and thanks for all the fish...

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syklist
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby syklist » 21 Nov 2016, 6:56am

Back to the OP, the reason why Brexit will be a hard Brexit is because that is the only option that has ever been on the table.

Access to the single market depends on free movement of labour in addition to goods, services and capital. Any Leave campaigners who said otherwise knew this from the start and therefore have been so economical with the truth that it would appear that they have been lying.
So long and thanks for all the fish...

broadway
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby broadway » 21 Nov 2016, 8:59am

syklist wrote:Back to the OP, the reason why Brexit will be a hard Brexit is because that is the only option that has ever been on the table.

Access to the single market depends on free movement of labour in addition to goods, services and capital. Any Leave campaigners who said otherwise knew this from the start and therefore have been so economical with the truth that it would appear that they have been lying.


Now that's just being Bremoaner.

Of course some people might think it unwise to destroy your major trading partner, ie unless you belong to the "Daily Mail" school of politics.

SpannerGeek
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby SpannerGeek » 21 Nov 2016, 9:17am

broadway wrote:
syklist wrote:Back to the OP, the reason why Brexit will be a hard Brexit is because that is the only option that has ever been on the table.

Access to the single market depends on free movement of labour in addition to goods, services and capital. Any Leave campaigners who said otherwise knew this from the start and therefore have been so economical with the truth that it would appear that they have been lying.


Now that's just being Bremoaner.

Of course some people might think it unwise to destroy your major trading partner, ie unless you belong to the "Daily Mail" school of politics.


It's not so much a school, as a skipping game in the playground.

tyreon
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby tyreon » 21 Nov 2016, 9:32am

The good news, if there is no limitations on EU immigration, is that wages can only fall so far before they level out. Thus when our average wage falls to that of the Bulgarian/Romanian employee, there will no longer be an incentive to move to 'full-up' Britain. We can then finally prove to the world we are not xenophobic or nationalist. At the same time Polly '4 houses' Toynbee may then cease writing her column in the Guardian.

I think we finally have to move to a population of 130 million before we finally prove we are not 'little islanders'.

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syklist
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Re: Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit

Postby syklist » 21 Nov 2016, 9:45am

tyreon wrote:The good news, if there is no limitations on EU immigration, is that wages can only fall so far before they level out.

So, out of curiousity, who has the responsibility for setting the minimum wage in the UK?
So long and thanks for all the fish...